Lucky 15 Bet Calculator - Quickly Work Out Your Return

1) Failure to Use Betting Banks
Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses. Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a "Betting Bank" that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters. The size of your betting bank will of course be dependent upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available.
An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone. The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels. A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital. With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.
2) Failure to Stake Correctly
It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use. You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank. Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results. Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example.
Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row! Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run. We have long since established here a strike rate of about 35% on our Best Bet selections and at an average S.P. of over 5/2 for each winning bet.
We feel able to protect clients banks as long losing runs haven't happened and the strike rate and odds have been more than enough to ensure long steady and safe growth for your betting profits. That is in essence the key to winning money. Manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you.
3) Chasing Losses
Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit. Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don't have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand.
If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win. Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to "chase" losses or "play up" winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day. There will be more racing the next day and the day after that.
The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as "The Last Race".
4) Lack of Value Appreciation
Appreciation of "value" in a bet is core to long term success. To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race. There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say "At least I had some value".
There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better "value" you have. The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that. Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects.
That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank. You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges. Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.
5) Greed For Instant Wealth
Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum. Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath.
The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% ! Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option. You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between.
You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers". You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or each way single. Ask yourself why.

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
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Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
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Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
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Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
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Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
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Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
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6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
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5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
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4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
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3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
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Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
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2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
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But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
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Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
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The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
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But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
​
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
​
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
​
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
​
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet
​
Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

SHOOTING SCRIPT DATED 27/06/16 BBC SCOTLAND STILL GAME EPISODE 1 - "GADGETS" Written by FORD KIERNAN AND GREG HEMPHILL THE SENDING OF THIS SCRIPT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER THIS SCRIPT REMAINS CONFIDENTIAL AND THE PROPERTY OF THE BBC 1 INT JACK’S FLAT. LIVING ROOM. MORNING 1 (0930) 1 (JACK, VICTOR) Jack is putting down a couple of rolls and sausage. Jack looks at his watch. There is a knock at the door. JACK: Clock work. Victor enters. VICTOR: Top of the morning, Jack boy. Wee bit nippy out there. JACK: Morning Victor. Victor observes the spread. Rolls, Teas, Penguins. He sits and opens the paper. Jack looks at Victor expectantly. JACK: (CONT’D) Eh...What’s happenin’? Victor munches on his roll and sausage. VICTOR: Gies a chance, Jack, I’ve no read it yet. JACK: No, the other paper. Ma paper to read. VICTOR: I just got the one. JACK: No, that’s no how it works. One of us does the rolls, the teas and the Penguins and the other one jumps down and gets the two papers. We read them then we swap. VICTOR: Ach aye. I just got the one. The headlines were the same. Plus the price is went up. So one’ll dae us. I’ll read this, then gie it to you. CONTINUED: Victor begins to read the paper. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Jeez-o. That’s a surprise. Ooft. Didnae see that comin’. “More on pages 6 and 7. He’s no deid, is he? Jeez that’s young! JACK: So let me get this right. You sit there and get all the news first hand I’ve to sit here with nae news. In the dark. Like a daftie. Out the loop. A caveman. A cromagnon! VICTOR: Put the telly on! Aah, of course, they didnae have tv back in Cromagnon times. Make a fire or whatever it is you people dae. Jack sighs. Victor gives in. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Are ye wanting the paper? JACK: Naw. Just Gimme that wee magazine that they always stick in the middle. Victor pulls out the “Futuroo” catalogue. VICTOR: (Affecting Caveman voice) MAGAZINE. GIFT. LOOK PICTURES. JACK: I will fashion a spear and stick it up your arse. (Same caveman voice) EYES MAKE WATER. Victor throws it to Jack. JACK: (CONT’D) I love these. Full of clever, handy stuff ye cannae get in the shops. There’s yer key ring calculator. VICTOR: What de ye need that for? (CONTINUED)
CONTINUED: JACK: That would dae a janitor. “How many daft keys have I got here? Oh haud on I’ve got a wee calculator here.” (Reading) Thermal cup. “Keep yer cuppa piping hot!” VICTOR: I don’t see the benefit of that. JACK: Well, Ye make a cup of tea, you go for a biscuit, slip, faw, snap yer leg, up the hospital, 4 hours on a gurney, ignored! Up the road a again, greeting wi’ the pain, gasping for a cup of tea, Oh hello! Roasting hot cup of tea just the way you left it! Perfect! VICTOR: That is a handy thing. Bad fracture. Nice cup of tea. JACK: Look at this! It’s a big magnifying glass ye clip onto the newspaper, turns awe the print big. VICTOR: That would be good. If ye had a newspaper tae read. Jack looks up from his catalogue. Victor raises his paper up and returns to reading. JACK: Hmph. (Jack chuckles) Look at this. VICTOR: What is it? JACK: It’s the shite you get as well. The Eggmaster 3000. This is aimed at wankers. What it does is, you stick two eggs in it the night before.. VICTOR: Uh-huh. CONTINUED: JACK: ...and it boils them for you before you wake up! VICTOR: Haha! JACK: And if you order it before the end of the month you get the Toastie soldier companion! VICTOR: (Laughing) Eggmaster 3000!!! Gies a look at it. JACK: You can read it when I’m done wi’ it. JACK: (CONT’D) Eggmaster 3000 What kind of windae licker would part with his money for that? HARD CUT TO: 2 INT. WINSTON’S FLAT. LIVING ROOM/FRONT DOOR DAY 1 (1000) 2 (WINSTON, CHRIS THE POSTIE) Winston is on the phone. He is holding a Futuroo catalogue open. WINSTON: Yes. The Eggmaster 3000 please. Winston licks his thumb and rubs a mark off his window. WINSTON: (CONT’D) And am I still eligible for the Toastie soldier companion? You dancing bear. That’s great, thanking you. Would I like expedited delivery? What does Expedited mean? Quicker. Aye gies that, Hen. Cheerio now. Winston’s doorbell goes. WINSTON: (CONT’D) What a service! He goes to the front door and opens it. Chris the Postie stands before him. CHRIS: Registered letter. Winston signs the electric box. Chris looks at it disparagingly. CHRIS: (CONT’D) Is that yer signature, aye? WINSTON: Yes. Exactly the same as it always is. (Points to his signature) Yingimnyingyem. Winston slams the door in his face and opens his letter. He returns to his living room and lays it out on the table.
2 CONTINUED: 2 WINSTON: (CONT’D) Oh dear. Well that’s a surprise. Better run round the place with the hoover. 3 INT NAVID’S DAY 1 (1030) 3 (NAVID, ISA, WINSTON) Isa dusting cans. Navid emerges from the beads. He watches Isa from behind. Her bum is wiggling away while she is dusting. NAVID: You know, Isa, I never give you anything. Beat. Isa turns and looks at Navid. A hint of romance on her face. ISA: How de ye mean? Navid pulls a mop from behind the counter. ISA: (CONT’D) A mop? NAVID: No just any mop, Isa. He turns the mop to reveal the legend emblazoned on it: NAVID: (CONT’D) Got you something out the Futuroo catalogue. The Floor Hear-o! ISA: Ooh, Navid, I’m no needing that, I like ma string mop. Navid lifts the mop. It has three measly strings left. NAVID: C’mon. That mop looks like it’s had chemo. And anyway. The Floor Hear-o has Bluetooth. ISA: Bluetooth? It’s normally Detol I use. Navid pulls out headphones. 3 CONTINUED: 3 NAVID: Dear oh dear. (Patronizing) Bluetooth gives you wireless music, Isa. ISA: Wireless? NAVID: Nae Wires. Wire free! Do you no know nothing? ISA: But if I want music, Navid, there’s a perfectly good transistor there! NAVID: That’s for me to listen to my quality music. This is for you to listen to your shite. It makes your mopping a whole lot simpler cause the music makes the chore pass much quicker. Winston enters and begins shopping. Navid puts the headphones on Isa. Her face lights up. Isa sidles off, mopping and shaking her behind to the music. ISA: It’s got a lovely fast action! HELLO WINSTON! NAVID GOT ME THESE! AS A PRESENT! Winston recoils in fright. He heads to the counter. Navid smiles at Winston and leans in. NAVID: It’s actually a present for all of us. WINSTON: Eh? Winston’s face lights up. He turns to Isa. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Aah, earmuffs for a nosy cow! Isa just smiles. (CONTINUED) 3 CONTINUED: 3 WINSTON: (CONT’D) JACK AND VICTOR HAVE WENT AFF THEIR HEIDS AND THEY’VE JUMPED OFF THE HIGH FLATS. Isa smiles, not hearing a thing. WINSTON/NAVID: He he he. Navid and Winston share a knowing laugh. Navid has played a blinder. ISA: When’s your house guest coming? WINSTON: What? Isa ghosts over. She takes her headphones off. She cooly scans Winston’s basket. ISA: Well, big tin of soup instead of small tin, Full loaf, when you normally take a wee one, a dozen eggs, not six. And the quilted toilet roll. You usually buy the cheap stuff that yer fingers go through... You’ve got a house guest visiting. I’m asking when? NAVID: Scary. Winston is raging. WINSTON: See you, Isa? You should grow a moustache, well, a thicker moustache. Get it waxed up at the ends and get a job mopping on the Orient Express ya nosy bastard ye! Winston heads to the door, beaten again. Isa goes back to her mopping. Winston exits. ISA: Right, that’s me away! NAVID: Okey dokey. 3 CONTINUED: 3 Navid quickly inspects the floor. NAVID: (CONT’D) Haud on! You’ve missed a big bit there! ISA: Aye. I tried moppin there but the music wouldnae go on my Wi-Fi. It’s a cold spot they call that. Cheeryby! 4 INT CLANSMAN DAY 1 (1115) 4 (TAM, BOABBY, ERIC, JACK, VICTOR, WALTER, WINSTON) Tam is thumbing through the Futuroo catalogue. TAM: Spider Catcher. 19.99? Not a chance. Batter it with a slipper. 20 quid saved. What’s this noo? An Ionic Shoe Freshener. 49.99! Bollocks. Shoes aff, stinking. Lidl’s “Ssst. Ssst.” Thruppence worth of a squirt, Cotton fresh. Boabby takes Tam’s magazine. He looks at it with disgust. BOABBY: Aimed at pensioners! “That’ll make my meaningless life easier. This might keep me out the grave for another 15 minutes!” Look at this. An Electric Bunnet. “Outsmart Jack Frost this winter with the Hot Cap. Shite. ERIC: No shite, Boabby. It’s Toasty. It came the day. Magic. Eric takes his hat off and demonstrates. ERIC: (CONT’D) Yer wee PP3 battery goes in there. Awe the lining in there is like a mini electric blanket. Eric switches it on. Everybody stares at him. ERIC: (CONT’D) Wait! There ye go. It’s kickin in noo! BOABBY: Very good. You wanting a pint or what? ERIC: Aye. I’ll a take a pint of cider. Lots of ice!, Boabby.
Eric takes his jacket off. ERIC: (CONT’D) I’m roasting! I’m sweatin’ like Pavarotti’s pallbearers. Jack and Victor enter. BOABBY: Look who it is! Chas and Dave! JACK: That’s right and you put the Cock in Cockney. Two pints, prick! A man comes in at the back of them. He looks similar to Winston in shape, face and same coloured clothes. VICTOR: And get a pint for Winston. BOABBY: That’s no Winston. Jack and Victor turn round. BOTH: Walter! WALTER: Hey, long time to see! TAM: Must be what, WALTER: Lemme think noo...15 year! JACK: Have you seen Winston yet? WALTER: No. Thought I’d jump in for a quick pint first before I go over to see WINSTON! Winston walks in. WINSTON: What are you like? In here entertaining the troops before you visit yer brother! (CONTINUED) CONTINUED: Winston limps over. WALTER: A drink for ma brother! In fact get one fur everybody! WALTER: (CONT’D) What happened to your leg? WINSTON: Lost it. Fags. WALTER: Oh dear. Winston grabs Walter’s right hand. WINSTON: Anyway, how ye doin’? Winston shakes his arm. It extends by about a foot and a half. Something is badly wrong. WINSTON: (CONT’D) What happened to your arm? WALTER: Lost it. Rigs. Winston looks round. Everyone is stifling a laugh. WALTER: (CONT’D) Got a big payday oot it! WINSTON: That’s good. So where have you been? WALTER: Where have I no been? I was on the Heimdal gas field. Transferred and got moved to Oselvar. Oil. That awe travels via the Northpipe tae- The boys are enthralled. Walter hears snoring. We cut to see Eric is asleep. WALTER: (CONT’D) Stop me if I’m boring ye! TAM: No, no, you’re no boring him it’s the battery bunnet. Tam taps Eric on the head. TAM: (CONT’D) Eric, wake up ya auld tit! Tam lifts the hat off Eric’s head. He reacts to the hat being scorching! Eric’s head is bright red. TAM: (CONT’D) Bloody hell! It’s roasting! Tam juggles the hat like a hot potato. Smoke comes off it. He throws it on the bar counter. It bursts into flames. Everyone reacts! ALL: Haaawwwwww! Eric wakes up. Boabby lifts the soda gun and douses it. It hisses out. The danger is over. ERIC: No ma good bunnet! That cost me an arm and a leg! Everyone reacts to Eric’s faux pas. ALL: Haaaaaaaaw! Winston and Walter laugh.
5 INT JACK AND VICTOR’S LANDING. MORNING 2 (1000) 5 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA, CHRIS THE POSTIE) Jack emerges from his flat. Isa stands before him, at her door. ISA: Morning, Jack. JACK: (Taken aback) Morning, Isa. After a few beats, Victor emerges from his flat. VICTOR: Jack. Isa. JACK: Victor. ISA: Victor. Morning. VICTOR: Morning to you too. A few more dry beats. We cut back and forth between their smiling, waiting expressions. Eventually, the lift pings open. Chris the Postie emerges. He gets a fright at the three of them standing there. CHRIS: What’s this? Have I got off the lift at a zombie movie? Dawn of the Decrepit? JACK: Very funny. You got something for us? CHRIS: I do as it happens. I’ve got something for all of ye. Chris hands out three parcels, one to each. Victor’s is small, Isa’s is medium sized, Jack’s is large. 5 5 All three recognise the Futuroo wrapping paper on each parcel and nod knowingly to one another. ALL: Aaaaahhhh. ISA: All different sizes. A wee innovation fur each of us. Tae make life that wee bit easier. Whose gonnie kick things aff. VICTOR: Allow me. He opens his box and presents a stone. JACK: A stone. VICTOR: At first glance. Observe! Victor takes out his house keys and puts them inside the stone. ISA: What’s the good of that? VICTOR: If I come in one night, after an evening in the Clansman and discover I’ve lost my keys because I’m pished or what have you, then I’ve got a set right here. Disguised as a common or garden pebble. JACK: Which wouldnae look oot a place in the garden but this is a landing. VICTOR: Eh? Oh aye. JACK: A robber would see that and say “Oooh, there’s one of they plastic Futuroo hide yer key pebbles.” That’ll save me kicking the door in. (CONTINUED) 5 CONTINUED: 5 Victor puts it down by his front door. VICTOR: Shut up. It looks good there. Like a rockery. JACK: Like yer starting a rockery. A one rock rockery. A shitey rockery. ISA: Ye should get doon the garden centre and get mair rocks roon aboot it. Isa opens her parcel. It is a wee brown plastic dog. She switches it on and puts it down on the door mat. She flashes a wee handset device. She goes into her house and shuts the door. ISA: (CONT’D) Watch. Jack and Victor look at each other. ISA: (OOV) (CONT’D) CHAP MA DOOR! Jack and Victor knock. The dog speaks, we hear Isa’s voice: DOG: Who is it, please? JACK: You know who it is. DOG: For the purposes of demonstration please state your name. VICTOR: Victor McDade and Jack Jarvis. JACK: Esquire. ISA: I’m sorry I can’t come to the door right now as I’m making Cock-ALeekie soup. So bugger off.
5 CONTINUED: 5 BOTH: Good/That’s a handy thing, that. DOG: Right. Come in and show me what you got, Jack. Jack. Jack? Victor? Jack and Victor are gone. HARD CUT TO: 6 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM. DAY 2 (1030) 6 (JACK, VICTOR) Jack and Victor stand in front of a fancy, white electronic “Bath Tidy” which sits across the bath full of gadgets. Radio, reading stand, soap dispenser etc. Two plastic white lights Packed with shite. VICTOR: Woaf. That is the bollocks. The business. The daddy of them all. What the hell is it? JACK: What’s your bath time routine? VICTOR: I don’t take a bath. Routinely. Too much hassle. I dae my ablutions with ma shower head. JACK: Ablutions? VICTOR: Aye, Ye know, Roon the houses. Oxters, arsehole, clacker bag. JACK: Thank you, Victor. I’ve now got that in Panavision. But I know what you’re saying. I’m the same. I just use the shower. To men of oor age, a bath is a pain in the arse. But with the Techno Tub. No-sir-ee. Soap dispenser, dish there, thermometer there, beer holder, book stand, lights and the piece to resistance, Jack switches on a dial. We hear an old tune. JACK: (CONT’D) Bath time’s a pleasure. And I’ll be having one tonight. VICTOR: Nice. Much was it? 6 CONTINUED: 6 JACK: 34.99. VICTOR: Aye. That’s better than a dummy stone right enough. Once ye’ve used that tonight, I’ll take a shot of it and have a good steep masel.. JACK: Naw. The Techno Tub’s a personal thing. That’s like taking a lain of a man’s sponge. Away and fondle yer stone. Victor leaves. 7 EXT STREET DAY 2 (1400) 7 (TAM, ERIC, WALTER, WINSTON, JACK) Tam and Eric stand with Walter and Winston. Walter is finishing a funny story. WALTER: (Jerks a thumb to Winston) Two of us are steaming and he turns roon and says “Naw, you haud it’s heid! I’ll put the wellies on it!” Tam and Eric lose it. They are all laughing. Jack approaches. He carries Soap and a new sponge. JACK: What huv I missed, what’s awe the laughing aboot? ERIC: Ma ribs are sore. TAM: It’s Walter here, you could be a stand-up comedian, son! Or youse could be a double act. But you’d huv to go the straight man, Winston. Everyone laughs. ERIC: Or the clown that comes oot before the main event! JACK: Aye cause he’s it and you’re shit! That could be yer double act name! “Ladies and Gentlemen, a big hand,” nae offence, Walter, “for IT AND SHIT!” WINSTON: Thanks, fur that, Jack. JACK: Sorry. 7 CONTINUED: 7 WALTER: Right, where are we gaun, the bookies? Let’s flash some cash! WINSTON: Naw, naw. Stevie the bookie’s a wrong ‘un. WALTER: How? WINSTON: Long story. Everyone smiles and looks at their shoes. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Right. I had an accumulator come up. 35 grand. Stevie does a runner. Then he comes back, Shaves his heid baldy and claims to be his brother. I stay in his toilet awe night and bust him, so he pays me, but I cannae stay oot the place and I start losing it. I’m down to my last few quid then bingo I get it awe back. Stick it in ma leg which flew out the windae and a ned ran away with all ma lolly. (To Jack) Ye remember awe that? JACK: Vaguely. WINSTON: How about the Greyhounds? Where’s Victor? JACK: Up the garden centre buying bloody pebbles. WINSTON: What fur? JACK: He’s a crackpot. WINSTON: You want tae come wi’ us? Jack waves his new sponge and bar of soap. (CONTINUED)
7 CONTINUED: 7 JACK: Naw. I’m going up the road tae have a bath. I’ve no had a bath for two year! Everybody steps back from Jack. JACK: (CONT’D) I’ve had showers and that. Naw, youse enjoy yourselves. 8 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM. NIGHT 2 (1800) 8 (JACK) Jack has got his big tartan robe on. He is watching his bath fill up. He presses on the lights then turns the overhead light off to see the water sparkling. He turns on the radio and hums along with the tune. JACK: Ooh, look at you, filling up lovely. Jack decants a tin of beer into a pint tumbler and places it in the glass holder on the bath tidy. He checks the temp on the bath tidy. JACK: (CONT’D) Temperature’s just tickety-boo. Book stand. Jack pulls from his robe a giant grave stone slab of Dairy Milk and puts it on the book stand. JACK: (CONT’D) I’ll be getting intae you, shortly and I don’t know when I’ll be getting out! We see the robe falling to the floor to Jack’s feet and the sound of him entering the bath. 9 INT JACK AND VICTOR’S LANDING. NEXT MORNING 3 (0930) 9 (JACK V/O, VICTOR, ISA) Victor emerges with a pack of Digestives. The floor space outside his door is now covered with pebbles. He steps over them stumbling and trying to get his balance. VICTOR: 16 quid for this pile of shit. He eventually navigates them and arrives and knocks Jack’s door. Nothing. He knocks it again. JACK: (OOV) (Muffled) Victor! Victor cocks his ear. What was that? JACK: (CONT’D) Victor! Victor opens the letter box. VICTOR: Jack? JACK: Help! VICTOR: Huv ye fell!? JACK: Naw I’m stuck in the bath I’ve been in it all night? VICTOR: Oh Jesus! Haud on! Isa’s dog’s eye’s light up. DOG: What’s all the commotion? Victor runs and raps Isa’s door. VICTOR: Isa! Isa! Jack’s stuck in the bath! (CONTINUED) 9 CONTINUED: 9 DOG: Who’s calling? VICTOR: It’s me, Victor. Open the door! DOG: I’m sorry, I cannot receive guests, at the moment for I am in my dressing gown eating toast and reading my Bella magazine. Victor snatches up the dog and begins shouting in its face. VICTOR: LISTEN TO ME YOU HALFWIT! OPEN THIS BLOODY DOOR, JACK’S STUCK IN THE BATH! GET IT OPENED OR I’LL RIP THIS DUG’S LEGS AFF! Isa opens the door. Victor has run back across the landing. VICTOR: (CONT’D) (trying the door.) It’s locked! ISA: Put yer shoulder tae it! VICTOR: Oot the road. Victor takes a feeble run and hits it like snowball hitting a gas fire. He hits it again. Same result. He kicks it feebly. ISA: MOVE! Victor gets out the way. Isa runs full steam at the door. She knocks it clean off its hinges. 10 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM. DAY 3 (0930) 10 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA) Victor and Isa enter frantically. VICTOR: Jack, ye awright? What’s happened here? JACK: What de ye thinks happened? I’ve thought this bath is that good I’ve decided to live in it! I’m stuck! I cannae get oot! ISA: Jack, yer wullie! Victor grabs a small face cloth. VICTOR: Here, I’ll cover that up! JACK: Wi’ a bigger towel!!! ISA: Who takes a bloody bath first thing in the morning? JACK: I took it last night! VICTOR: And ye’ve took another one this morning? JACK: I’VE BEEN IN HERE SINCE LAST NIGHT! BOTH: Bloody hell/Oh my! JACK: Look at the state of ma skin I’m like Judy Finnegan! VICTOR: And ye cannae lift yersel oot? (CONTINUED)
10 CONTINUED: 10 JACK: I’m awe stuck to the sides, like suction! ISA: Just pull the plug oot! JACK: I cannae, it’s directly under ma ringer I’ve tried that! VICTOR: Don’t panic! JACK: Panic? I’m no panicking! I’m past the panicking bit! I was panicking for about ten hours, but that’s past noo! ISA: Call 911! JACK: What, for American Police? VICTOR: Away ye go, ya hofwit! “Is that CSI Miami, ma pals stuck in the bath. Where? Glesga!” Idiot. It’s 999! JACK: Haud on, Victor, you cannae dae that! VICTOR: How? JACK: That’s for emergencies, I’m no dyin! I’m just wanting out the bath. There’s a number ye phone when yer having trouble wi’ a bath? ISA: BnQ. VICTOR! Naw! I know what it is, it’s 101. 10 10 JACK: That’s crime! I’ve no been robbed. The only thing that’s getting robbed is ma bastardin’ dignity! ISA: Aaaaagh! I know what it is! VICTOR: What? ISA: This happened to Big Janice Mcafferty her wi’ the eating disorder you know who I’m talking aboot she’s barred from Gregg’s fur grazing she got stuck and her man called.... Everyone waits. VICTOR: Her man called.... JACK: Man called..... ISA: Kenny. JACK: THE NUMBER HE CALLED YA DAFT COW! ISA: NHS Ambulance services department. Isa runs out the bathroom ISA: (CONT’D) THAT’S WHO YOU CALL! 11 INT NAVID’S. LATE MORNING 3 (1100) 11 (NAVID, WINSTON, WALTER, MEENA) Winston and Walter arrive in the shop. They sidle up to the counter. WINSTON: Navid. Meet my brother. Walter. NAVID: Walter. Nice to see you. What can I do you for? WALTER: Cigars? What huv ye got? Navid turns round and selects a single panatella. NAVID: Cigars! I have classy ones for the man about town and not so classy ones for the man about scheme. WALTER: Classy. Always classy. NAVID: Claaassy. I used to be a half Corona man myself. That was when we lived in Gujarat. WALTER: I know Gujarat. NAVID: You know Gujarat? WALTER: Oh aye. I worked in LaHore for long enough. The guy I worked wi’ was from Gujurat. Aftab Jarwar. He was a good laugh. Tiny wee fella. He was only about 4 foot six. Walter switches into Punjabi WALTER: (CONT’D) (Translation:) But he had a cock like an elephant. 11 11 Navid and Walter piss themselves laughing. NAVID: (In Punjabi) A cock like an elephant! That’s a cracker. Meena shouts from behind the beads. MEENA: Aftab Jarwar? I think I might have met him! Navid, Walter and Meena are howling with laughter. Winston is trying to join in the laughter. It fades. Navid sticks the cigar in Walter’s shirt pocket. NAVID: Here. Take that. That’s a better laugh than he’s ever gied me! Winston laughs again weakly. There is an awkwardly silence. NAVID: (CONT’D) Have YOU ever been anywhere good, Winston? WINSTON: Eh. Aye. RawalPindi. NAVID: Oh! In the Punjab region? WINSTON: No, in the Sauchiehall Street region. Next to the dry cleaners. Nice Pakora. Winston smiles expecting a laugh. He gets nothing. Tough shop. 12 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM DAY 3 (1130) 12 (JACK, VICTOR, BIG JOHN, ISA) Jack is asleep. Eventually, he stirs. When he wakes, he looks confused. How was he sleeping? He sniffs. Something’s not right. Jack freaks out, splashing water everywhere. We cut wide to see that Victor is taking a shit. JACK: What the hell are ye daein? VICTOR: Sorry Jack I was putting if off for ages, I’ve hud tae park a loaf in yer lavvy! JACK: Ye animal! Who does that? You only live next door! VICTOR: I couldnae leave ye yersel in the bath, ye’ve been asleep! You could huv done a Whitney Houston! JACK: Where are these people that are supposed to be getting me out the bath? VICTOR: That’s nearly two hours since we found ye, they’re surely due noo! JACK: And if they come right noo, they’re gonnie be confused! “Dearie me, This is a dilemma, who do we save first? The poor auld fella stuck in the bath or the silly auld duffer, superglued to the shiter! Finish yer manky business and get aff ma pan! VICTOR: Right look away. 12 12 Jack looks away. Victor does up his trousers. An irate, very large man enters. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Hello! You must be from the services. JACK: Naw! This is big John fae doon stairs! How are you, John? JOHN: What’s gaun on here? VICTOR: He’s stuck in the bath, son. JOHN: Are ye? Well I’ve got water coming doon into ma bathroom. Which I’ve been daein up for the last three months and I’ve just finished. Only to look up and see drip drip drip drip! The man bundles past Victor. JOHN: (CONT’D) Oot the way! The man removes the front panel of the bath. JOHN: (CONT’D) Look at that. Soakin. Rotten. That needs sorted! I told you about that, two year ago! VICTOR: Look, keep the heid. There’s an ambulance on it’s way! JOHN: If I get any mair water doon on me it’ll be a hearse yer needin’! The man stomps out. JACK: Charmin’. VICTOR: Where are these toerags? (CONTINUED) 12 CONTINUED: 12 Isa comes in dressed. ISA: Are they still not here? JACK: Absolutely typical, intit? Leaving an old man stuck in the bath. VICTOR: It’s disgusting. It’s because the pensioner isnae a priority! ISA: Aye, dirty lazy pigs, we’re the bottom of the pile and no mistake! VICTOR: How long did they say they’d be? ISA: Who? VICTOR: The emergency services? ISA: What did they say to me? JACK: When you called them! ISA: I didnae call them! I thought Victor’d called them, I was away getting ready! JACK: You couple of stupid arseholes! Victor and Isa run out the bathroom. JACK: (OOV) (CONT’D) VICTOR! Victor pokes his head back in the toilet. VICTOR: Yes, Jack! JACK: Flush!
12 CONTINUED: 12 VICTOR: Oh aye! Victor flushes the toilet. 13 INT STEVIE THE BOOKIE’S DAY 3 (1145) 13 (WINSTON, WALTER, STEVIE) Walter and Winston are watching a horse race. Stevie the Bookie looks on from his counter. He smiles at Winston, who looks away in disgust. WALTER: C’mon then. C’mon then. Bingo! WINSTON: Beat by a bawhair! Winston scrumples up his bookie slip in the old school style. He accompanies Walter to the counter. Walter heads to the window first, offering his slip. STEVIE: Excuse me, a minute sir, if I could just tend to this customer first. Stevie signals to Winston. WALTER: Oh aye. Of course. Walter steps out the way, leaving Stevie to do a victory gloat dance right in Winston’s face. Winston takes it in silence. It lasts for however long the episode is short. Stevie’s dance comes to an abrupt end. He turns to Walter. Walter looks to Winston quizzically. “What was that about?” WINSTON: Just ignore him, Walter. STEVIE: How can I help you? WALTER: Wee accumulator came up there. STEVIE: (affable) Nice! Lemme see. Now you don’t see that very often. You’ve started with a pound. Ye’ve predicted McPherson in round three last night. Score draw, next, they’re very tricky. (MORE) 13 13 STEVIE: (CONT'D) The winner at Hamilton. And you never took the odds. That was clever. Stevie casts an eye at Winston. STEVIE: (CONT’D) £210. Well done. Stevie grins at Winston. Winston shakes his head. But he’s not annoyed. He smiles to himself at the irony of his arch enemy cosying up to his brother. Walter takes the money with his plastic hand. STEVIE: (CONT’D) Smart accumulator. Clever. That’s took a bit of nouse. I wouldn’t mind buying you a pint and picking yer brains about your process! WALTER: Anytime! WINSTON: Aye, anytime. STEVIE: Naw, I was referring to the winners’ enclosure. Winston and Walter make to leave. STEVIE: (CONT’D) Winston! Winston turns. Stevie reprises his “Victory” dance to annoy him. 14 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM DAY 3 (1200) 14 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA) Victor enters. Isa is sitting on the loo. VICTOR: You’re no taking a dump an awe are ye? ISA: Indeed I am not ya filthy pig! JACK: What did they say? VICTOR: Yer no gonnie like this. They said it could be up to six hours. JACK: I’ll no last another six hours. This water’s gaun cold. ISA: We can fix that, wi’ a wee top up. Isa turns on the hot water tap but it’s tight. ISA: (CONT’D) It’s no comin’. Victor rolls up his sleeves. VICTOR: Please. He moves past her to the tap. He applies a serious amount of pressure to turn it. It comes away in his hand. Water gushes out the tap. JACK: That’s quite nice. That’s gettin hot. That’s getting too hot, Victor! It’s ROASTING IT’S SCORCHING! SERIOUSLY, SERIOUSLY THAT’S TOO MUCH! You’d be as well throwing totties in here! 14 14 ISA: Ye need the cauld tae coonter it! Isa turns on the cold tap. VICTOR: Right! It’s now or never! Grab my hands Jack! Jack grabs Victor’s hands. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Ye ready? One! Two Three! Victor has no leverage. He topples into the bath on top of Jack. Water pishes everywhere. Isa lifts a bucket. She begins to bail water from the bath to the toilet sink. It’s going everywhere. Victor crawls out. His soaking clothes are dripping everywhere. He slips on the floor. 15 INT CLANSMAN AFTERNOON 3 (1400) 15 (BOABBY, WINSTON, WALTER) Winston and Walter are draining a pint. Boabby stands cleaning tumblers. WALTER: (Awkward) Well, I better be hitting the road. That’s a good gang of pals you’ve got here, Winston. WINSTON: Aye, I’m very lucky. Jack, Victor, Tam, Eric, Isa, Navid. Boabby waits patiently for his mention. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Oh aye. I nearly forgot. Stevie the bookie. Boabby gives up and heads into the stock room. WALTER: Aye the bookie. I liked him. Great guy. WINSTON: Oh aye. Great guy. Salt of the earth. (Under his breath) Which I wish he was under. Beat. WALTER: It’s a shame about poor old Auntie Lily, dying, intit? WINSTON: And there it is. WALTER: There what is? WINSTON: The reason for your visit, Walter. Yer bus is in an hour, but there was one wee last bit of business you had to take care of. The bite. 15 15 WALTER: I don’t know what yer talking aboot! Winston pulls out a letter. The one he received at the beginning of the episode. WINSTON: This is the letter telling me Lily had passed. As soon as it arrived, I knew you wouldn’t be long at the back of it. Cause that’s how you operate. Four times I’ve seen you in the last forty years. Each time to borrow money. From me. Money you never paid back. You never even showed at oor Ma’s or our Dad’s funerals. That’s because they had nothing. Walter nods, knowing. He’s been busted. WALTER: So was there any... WINSTON: Money? Yes. Lily left four thousand. WALTER: So that’s two thousand each? WINSTON: No. Winston takes out an envelope. He pushes it across the table. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Take the lot. Walter leaves. 16 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM DAY 3 (1430) 16 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA, BIG JOHN) Big John from down the stairs stomps in. JOHN: I warned you! My ceiling is soaking noo! How can you still be stuck? ISA: I know, it’s a helluva carry on right enough they’re sayin’ on the phone it could be up tae six- JOHN: Shut up! I’m no wanting yer life story ya daft auld trout! Huv ye any Fairy Liquid? JACK: Aye! Under ma sink in the kitchen! John runs out. ISA: What’s he gonnie dae wi’ Fairy Liquid, Jack? JACK: Maybe he just wants to get his temper doon, dae a few dishes. ISA: I, it’s like therapy, that, intit? Anger management. John comes back in JOHN: Oot the road! John squirts fairy liquid all down Jack’s back and yanks him out the bath like a bear. Victor puts the robe on him. JACK: Listen son. I’m really sorry I let water doon on yer new bathroom. (MORE) 16 16 JACK: (CONT'D) But I was stuck in that bath aboot sixteen hours! JOHN: What ye doin taking a bath at your age? Victor drags the Techno tub bath tidy out the bath. VICTOR: He normally takes a shower but he bought this! JOHN: What is it? JACK: Techno tub! It’s does everything. Radio, lights, temperature. VICTOR: It’s a great thing. JOHN: What do you do with it? Victor sits it on the bath. VICTOR: It just sits there. Voila. The bath disappears under its own weight through the floor. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Techno Tub. JACK: Bath tidy. Isa stares down the hole. ISA: Yer bathroom really is lovely. Was that a new shower cubicle? Post Sig 17 INT CLANSMAN NIGHT 3 (2215) 17 (JACK, VICTOR, WINSTON, TAM, BOABBY, ISA, ERIC) Everybody is gathered. They are all quite bevvied. JACK: It’s no just what Walter says, it’s the way he says it. It’s a gift, that. TAM: You just have to look at him and he creases ye up. VICTOR: That must be a bit weird for you Winston. WINSTON: How so? VICTOR: Just, having the older brother who’s the life and soul and eh... WINSTON: Funnier than me? ALL: Noo! Didnae say that. Deserving of a watch etc WINSTON: Ye cannae be jealous of family. Anyway, he’s away noo so you’ll just have to put up with the support act. Everyone chuckles. Boabby picks up a notepad awkwardly. BOABBY: Away? Em, Winston, so over the last couple of days? Walter’s ran up a tab here. 40 quid. Winston blanches, before going into his pocket without missing a beat. 17 17 WINSTON: Calm doon. He telt me aboot that. He gave me this to square ye up. Did ye think he’d done a runner? BOABBY: No! That’s great. Right. Sorry. Winston hands Boabby 40 quid. JACK: To Walter. ALL: To Walter. WINSTON: Aye, to Walter. We see the wistful look on Winston’s face. Once again he bails out his brother. Hard cut:
18 INT. JACK AND VICTOR’S LANDING. NIGHT 3 (2230) 18 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA? VOICE FROM DOG) Jack leans against Victor’s front door. He is in full gloat. JACK: Still nae joy? Victor is on his knees looking through his “rockery”, chucking stones over his shoulder. VICTOR: Which one was it?! Isa’s electronic door dog’s eyes glow white as it comes to life DOG: Want me to make up the couch? Jack and Victor stare at the dog. They begin to throw rocks at it. END OF EPISODE

Disclaimer: A lot of this is speculation, based on actual character releases or quotes from Sakurai. Feel free to share further information or disagree completely. I think speculation can be fun and I'd love to have other people's input.
tl;dr - There isnt one. Sorry. :(

After Byleth dropped, I was curious. I wanted to dig to see if there was a specific method to Sakurai's madness when choosing a character for Smash. I did a lot of article hunting and wanted to share some of the more relevant, blatant stuff I found interesting. And since Sakurai said they already have the next 6 DLC characters decided on, it'd be pretty dope if we, as a community, could guess/deduce who they could be.

Some quotes and sources: 

Some sources from Sakurai directly on how characters are decided along with some highlights noted:

Nintendo World Report January 2015

• "For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking "What do you think?"."

Game Informer interview February 2015

• "Simply retelling stories from the past would make me sound like a doddering old man rambling to a disinterested crowd, so I think it’s necessary to strike a fair balance between the past and present."
• "I also look ahead to see if there are promising-looking characters from other games that are still in the early stages of development."
• "With all of that in mind, characters with no future – in other words, ones from series with little chance of a new release going forward – are difficult to justify unless thereʼs some special aim I have in mind. This doesn't apply for alternate costumes or models for existing characters, though."

Game Informer interview November 2018

• "We do things like base our consideration on the results of the Smash ballot, and also balance things out so that there’s a difference in the types of fighters."
• "It is a project after all, so we take into consideration things like labor, man-hours, the time in which the title will be sold. We decide on the fighters from the very early planning stage, and from there, we calculate and begin production. We don’t add or remove any characters during the project."
• "By the way, as for Incineroar, during our planning stage we knew that a new Pokémon game was coming, so we intentionally kept one spot open for that, and we decided which character to create once we received more info on the title."

A collection list of interesting Sakurai sayings/points (with sources from Sakurai's book.)

• All the info there is bulleted and cited in the comment there and easy to read, so I won't quote it here, but its full of insight.

​

1st and 3rd party reps: 

On 1st party reps:

There are a couple of things to look at. Importantly, a 1st party character doesn't appear to follow 3rd party character "decision rules". For 1st party, it just appears to have to be interesting in gameplay, not popularity. (See Ice Climbers, Pit, Palutena, and Piranha Plant in Smash) Regardless of how easy it is for you to recognize them as an OG or hardcore you are as a gamer, people who played Smash still didn't know who Samus was. They don't have to make contracts for their own IP, obviously. They literally left a slot open during development for a Pokemon they hadn't decided on yet (see Sakurai 2018 quote below).
I'd argue that DLC FP1 was locked down, and being prepped / iterated on before SSB5 was even released. That appears to be why Xenoblade and ARMS wasn't represented. I'd argue that Byleth was already known to be coming in game due to how every major worldwide release FE game has a rep. However, I wager for DLC FP2, all bets are off for first party. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rep from either Xenoblade and/or ARMS. ^{Twintelle pls}
I also cannot think of a better "final" character with DLC FP2 than Waluigi. He is 1st Party like Byleth, and would be the perfect "final" note of a character. Trolling, derpy, Waluigi.
I can't think of any "rules" for how Nintendo chooses characters. There are probably "guidelines" or something like:

1. The character currently must be able to translate well into Smash - with any needed development.
2. Popularity helps a character, as long as it has uniqueness.
3. Have a game that has come out within a recent timeframe for promotion of said game. (Hence, the FE and Pokemon every generation.)

There are obviously exceptions to this (Ice Climbers and Kid Icarus, for example), but I feel like even how they update some characters (BotW Link), it helps to show this. Nintendo has stated that the profit of a series that gets repped in Smash sees increases dramatically. (Because... of course.)
-

On 3rd party reps:

If you look at the roster, all 3rd party characters do not appear to be solely chosen based on being "badasses", "fits good", or "popularity", but rather be representatives of game franchises, or such influential characters that represent gaming as a whole. I don't think it has much to do with individual companies outside of not wanting to stack multiple IPs from a single developepublisher in the same DLC fighter's pass. Let's see what each fighter represents to gaming as a whole.

• Pac-Man - THE mascot of coin-op pretty much worldwide.
• Sonic - Genre defining. Literally an entire console mascot.
• Ryu / Ken- SFII is granddaddy of fighting games. (I think Ken got in because of his history as the raw, base reference to the very nature of "Player 1 vs Player 2" in a fighting game, otherwise he would have just been an echo fighter.)
• Hero - DQ is the Granddaddy of the JRPG genre, regardless of Japan's inherent love for its success. (Really only a "weak" series in NA.)
• Terry - Neo Geo fighters are often considered as or more popular than Street Fighter II everywhere in the southern hemisphere, and also brought Super Moves into the genre as well as a huge cast and 3v3. Terry might as well be SNK's mascot.
• Snake - MGS (especially for PS1) changed 3D action, voice acting, and story telling as we know it. Also, Kojima.
• Mega Man - Jump-and-shoot man.. perfected. After MM2 came out, everyone tried to copy their formula.
• Belmont - Not even "Genre defining." Literally, Castlevania is more a genre than a game. The whole -vania bit in "metroidvania."
• Cloud - Is there a more played / beloved / sold RPG in the world than FF7?
• Banjo & Kazooie - A love letter to Mario 64, turned into pretty much the template for the modern collect-a-thon game formula.
• Joker - Persona got big, man. Like, real big. In a way, modern Persona reps blends both current modern JRPGs and also the anime style games in a way not done before. Definitely represents the idea that modern games can be not only in the game, but that legacy is not the only reason why a character gets an invite.

Note on Bayo - I consider her a Nintendo IP since they pretty much foot the bill for Bayo 2 to be a thing.

Every 3rd party character on the list represents SOMETHING in gaming larger than just "they are cool." Like, I'd argue that Persona and Banjo are the weakest (worldwide) 3rd party reps as far as influence on the gaming industry as a whole. And they are HUGELY loved and have a place in gaming history. If you couple that with raw popularity, general look of the character, and expansive move opportunities, its not hard to see why they got in.
So, if there were a set of "guidelines" (?) based on the pattern of 3rd party characters that came before shown above, and what he has said in interviews, I'd argue:

1. The character should be the main mascot/representative of a series or genre. There doesn't appear to be a secondary character. (Ken not withstanding due to what he represents.)
2. Should have enough unique content or moves in their games to pull from to make the character without changing the nature of the character. (A good example of them making a big deal for that was Sakurai going into how they had exhausted all options for Terry's UAIR, so they made one that fit.) They want the character to keep their unique identity without them interfering.
3. The character currently must translate well into Smash with very minor design development from Nintendo. (Also, not be toxic for gameplay.)

I think popularity of a character or series, or how tied to Nintendo, is what can help Nintendo pick a character after the above is met. Sakurai even mentioned that some unnamed characters couldn't be put in the game due to not meeting a mutual business agreement. (Note: I cant find my source. I think it was an "IwataAsks" featuring Sakurai.... like... back from forever ago.)

On indies:

Look at your indie, now back at that 3rd party list - now back at your indie. Sadly, your indie isnt... - ok you get it.
Sakurai does not appear to be against having indies represented, but the total design needs to stand out, more than just artistic design. Cuphead does not have enough varied gameplay to have the some-odd 15 different moves - which is why he is the PERFECT Mii gunner. Sans wouldn't translate over very well as a whole fighter due to the nature of the his game. If the character doesn't have enough to draw on, they might end up developing new moves for the character in a way the developer did not want.
Shovel Knight is a great example here as well. His gameplay is very Zelda 2 and has an assortment of tools, but doesn't offer a unique gameplay "hook" or "gimmick" as a 3rd party character. However, clearly he did well on the ballet, as a character he has great polish, and has great fans, so its a no-brainer to have him as the indie assist. (I'd have loved to see him regardless.)
These will be a major hurdle as to why I think some characters won't make it or have a significantly harder time getting in.

Arguments for characters: 

I don't have much of a horse in this race, so I ain't trying to deconfirm anyone's favorite characters. I'm definitely no expert, nor do I have some kind of inside source. I'm just trying to figure what I believe is reasonable speculation based on what Sakurai has said interviews and put in the game.

1st Party:

• New Pokemon from Sw / Sh
• Waluigi (if he doesn't make it, I'd argue him and Daisy get their own character slots next game)
• Xenoblade
• Waddle Dee (This fanbase is very, very serious.)
• ARMS ^{twintelle pls}

- (Note - I'm going to abide by the same 'no repeat franchises' that's been done so far. So no one like Tails or Chun Li, regardless of their legendary status.)

3rd Party:

• Crash - I can't think of a better mascot for the PS1 era than him. Spyro, maybe, but not likely. I never owned a Crash game, but he is super iconic, and everyone knows what his games look like. Anyone old enough to remember PS1 has had the "talk" of who would win Sonic (Dreamcast) vs. Crash (PS1) vs. Mario (N64) in the original Smash64. I'd argue he has the best chance from legacy 3rd party mascots.
• Dante - DMC 1 pretty much created the 3rd person combo genre. He has lots of crossovers#Other_appearances) and would fit in game like Bayo did. On an artstyle / script level, DMC changed the industry. He's on Cloud level as far as icon status and has MGS's level of game dynasty. He wouldn't be a surprise to be added.
• Heihachi - I'd be shocked if a Tekken character didn't get in the game during DLC 2. Specifically Heihachi. Heihachi has "the hair" and great for Namco. If they were to put a straight up 3D fighting game character in game, I'd be it'd be him. While Virtual Fighter changed development viewpoints, Tekken 1-3 changed arcades.
• Phoenix Wright - Honestly, look. He already is in the same fightning game as Dante, but is 3 times as goofy and was one of the most noticable characters on the DS for like.. a decade. Straight up DS royality. I'd say, as long as Nintendo wanted a funny, gag character.
• Geno/Arle/Reimu/Steve - Whew. I want you guys to get your boi/girl. I do. I know you all are the most passionate. But based on what Sakurai has stated for development philosophy, it will be tough. They have things working against them. They don't have something close an existing moveset to draw from. (Example: Imagine what would their *air attacks be? What about UP+B?) If they made it in, it'd be as a gift from from Nintendo to fans and it would be taking a spot from someone else (or each other). I do hope you get your character though, if it is one of these. Really. Never seen a character wanted so badly by the community. (Except maybe Shantae.) Speaking of..
• Shantae - Whether or not you hate her, she's Nintendo indie royalty since 2002. Even Famitsu stated she has a notable following in Japan as far back as 2015. She also has a major rags to riches history with Nintendo (front page mascot of the DSi eShop for a long time), great sales, a kit that might as well come from a Nintendo 1st party game, and even Ken Sugimori from Pokemon plays Shantae. However, I wouldn't think she is a shoe-in by any means just because she's a great mascot. She's technically a great fit in Smash, but she's got much bigger names to beat out to get a spot.
• Rayman - Take a platformer mascot, make his games better over time until his most current one, but the industry doesn't change because of him. His artistic style and platformer history could fit in a platform game, and no matter how excellent a game Rayman Legends is, and boy is it excellent, it hasn't really had much effect on the industry. Another Rayman Legends game though on the Switch... he'd be an A-lister.
• Doom SlayeGuy or Master Chief - Doom and what it did for PC gaming is just... well its Mario levels of legendary. And Chief not only defined the Xbox, but FPS on console as well. (Play Halo 1 compared to Goldeneye, and tell me which one feels like modern granddaddy of FPS.) However, translating FPS to 3D-action-party-fighting-game would be tough. Real tough. On an innovation level alone, what would they use for their canon moveset that has already been in all their other games that meets Nintendo's standards and wouldn't be bland besides "shoot guns" and "generic punch"? I could see one of them in game, but I can't see both of them making it in. Kind of goes against Sakurai's "too similar design space" saying.
• Ryu Hayabusa - His biggest problem is that he is "generic ninja man" and hasn't had a game in a long time. He doesn't rep DoA, and although Ninja Gaiden has a great legacy and I f'n love the games, but he is like the Nathan Drake of ninjas. I'd argue that Strider Hiryu is a more interesting design and kit more suited to Smash. But still. It's Ninja Gaiden.
• Lara Croft - Having a female lead in a game was rare the farther back you go. She might have done well only because of "sex sells" kinds of ads back in the 90s, but she changed the industry from just marketing alone. Not to mention, now she has a dynasty, her reboots are unbelievably good so she is currently relevant. Might have a kit too hard to translate into Smash however.

I wouldn't be surprised if we even have a couple of brand new characters come from nowhere. Lucky from Super Lucky's Tale or maybe a character from Dragalia Lost? Who even knows.
If you want my personal opinion, I'd honestly like to see one or two other franchises get secondary characters. Examples: Tails / Knuckles, Tifa, Chun Li, Zero from Megaman X, etc. So many secondary characters that would honestly be incredible additions.

I hope I didn't step on any toes or come across as condescending. I just wanted to share thoughts and have a discussion.
Do you guys believe there are any characters we will see (or will not see) when looking at what Sakurai says or has implemented previously?

some more words

1. breath
2. crawl
3. pass
4. reject
5. glistening
6. slimy
7. lighten
8. shake
9. fearless
10. homeless
11. iron
12. versed
13. separate
14. appliance
15. magenta
16. animal
17. chivalrous
18. behave
19. place
20. plug
21. attend
22. thoughtless
23. exclusive
24. pickle
25. release
26. honey
27. bake
28. berry
29. sleep
30. deranged
31. press
32. flippant
33. torpid
34. fowl
35. enjoy
36. chemical
37. wretched
38. sun
39. color
40. imminent
41. happy
42. classy
43. star
44. quarrelsome
45. circle
46. wacky
47. plot
48. nebulous
49. texture
50. grab
51. rate
52. bait
53. yak
54. scrub
55. bead
56. strange
57. brake
58. sheet
59. concentrate
60. obnoxious
61. position
62. vacation
63. lunch
64. proud
65. juggle
66. necessary
67. alleged
68. tasteful
69. slippery
70. meaty
71. marble
72. wrestle
73. eggnog
74. incompetent
75. bless
76. zonked
77. cars
78. shrug
79. smell
80. omniscient
81. knowledge
82. event
83. billowy
84. cent
85. perfect
86. garrulous
87. jeans
88. quiet
89. eyes
90. dust
91. relation
92. please
93. advertisement
94. noxious
95. complete
96. tendency
97. scribble
98. agreement
99. voracious
100. encourage
101. beds
102. sore
103. bulb
104. borrow
105. curve
106. mountain
107. language
108. evanescent
109. unequaled
110. wonder
111. gamy
112. pot
113. reason
114. rough
115. rapid
116. shy
117. grandmother
118. step
119. grate
120. overwrought
121. assorted
122. rejoice
123. holistic
124. brief
125. calendar
126. sin
127. peep
128. abashed
129. half
130. remain
131. lovely
132. labored
133. numberless
134. deceive
135. military
136. instrument
137. super
138. woman
139. waiting
140. rude
141. muddle
142. panoramic
143. squeamish
144. aunt
145. disappear
146. railway
147. buzz
148. coach
149. ignorant
150. winter
151. repulsive
152. crook
153. hypnotic
154. wanting
155. wakeful
156. coherent
157. deserve
158. maniacal
159. yawn
160. retire
161. mixed
162. furniture
163. moon
164. pipe
165. advice
166. male
167. murder
168. inquisitive
169. ruthless
170. vigorous
171. money
172. wiggly
173. dad
174. front
175. laugh
176. wicked
177. noise
178. tumble
179. hair
180. cable
181. hapless
182. aberrant
183. damaging
184. sweater
185. tremble
186. average
187. well-made
188. tearful
189. brown
190. giddy
191. salty
192. unwieldy
193. rainstorm
194. excellent
195. mess up
196. rod
197. look
198. gather
199. lyrical
200. grape
201. snow
202. zippy
203. cheap
204. free
205. level
206. belong
207. scratch
208. chicken
209. cute
210. ants
211. pick
212. handy
213. surround
214. land
215. ticket
216. greedy
217. aspiring
218. alcoholic
219. imagine
220. potato
221. hook
222. pizzas
223. obeisant
224. yarn
225. songs
226. utter
227. tangy
228. easy
229. verse
230. sharp
231. stem
232. abandoned
233. selection
234. burn
235. black-and-white
236. shave
237. inform
238. righteous
239. fade
240. utopian
241. miscreant
242. dance
243. axiomatic
244. obsolete
245. depressed
246. alike
247. stuff
248. summer
249. float
250. arm
251. acceptable
252. birthday
253. describe
254. equal
255. hate
256. nice
257. tent
258. carriage
259. unique
260. infamous
261. relax
262. discovery
263. suck
264. dress
265. neck
266. third
267. crooked
268. appear
269. explain
270. march
271. apparatus
272. way
273. sudden
274. pushy
275. underwear
276. extra-large
277. cross
278. pale
279. part
280. wise
281. divergent
282. second-hand
283. grain
284. judicious
285. important
286. therapeutic
287. kiss
288. pause
289. scatter
290. silky
291. reach
292. bumpy
293. gate
294. sea
295. shelf
296. absorbed
297. unbecoming
298. decision
299. reflect
300. different
301. pointless
302. wheel
303. meek
304. downtown
305. abhorrent
306. volleyball
307. return
308. jazzy
309. possible
310. heat
311. bell
312. pretty
313. defective
314. goofy
315. fallacious
316. brash
317. quickest
318. concern
319. periodic
320. willing
321. empty
322. unhealthy
323. condemned
324. volcano
325. print
326. nervous
327. unarmed
328. quizzical
329. office
330. stir
331. disagree
332. rings
333. descriptive
334. corn
335. hydrant
336. insurance
337. slave
338. selective
339. frighten
340. list
341. strong
342. fierce
343. arrest
344. stream
345. anxious
346. puzzled
347. zealous
348. hum
349. overconfident
350. swing
351. nutty
352. ghost
353. jumpy
354. resonant
355. vest
356. crime
357. tacit
358. obtain
359. tick
360. rabid
361. feeble
362. harbor
363. spectacular
364. hospital
365. slow
366. probable
367. wandering
368. amusing
369. awake
370. tank
371. trite
372. account
373. well-to-do
374. pocket
375. desert
376. recess
377. plane
378. price
379. juvenile
380. camp
381. guttural
382. dinner
383. rinse
384. nasty
385. party
386. insect
387. mundane
388. undress
389. curious
390. switch
391. uninterested
392. icy
393. push
394. teeth
395. complain
396. branch
397. shoes
398. feeling
399. mammoth
400. curl
401. ragged
402. ripe
403. receive
404. brush
405. guarantee
406. tranquil
407. high-pitched
408. bright
409. basket
410. film
411. pour
412. frail
413. settle
414. bridge
415. grandiose
416. duck
417. servant
418. changeable
419. cheerful
420. arch
421. tub
422. grieving
423. rigid
424. debt
425. route
426. grateful
427. compete
428. growth
429. ladybug
430. rebel
431. bomb
432. afternoon
433. miss
434. gold
435. observant
436. twig
437. pat
438. increase
439. noiseless
440. worry
441. ship
442. hideous
443. halting
444. snails
445. plough
446. incandescent
447. fool
448. scold
449. pig
450. fearful
451. absorbing
452. drain
453. pinch
454. troubled
455. discussion
456. ancient
457. excuse
458. mouth
459. sense
460. abusive
461. measure
462. wealth
463. cracker
464. upbeat
465. bottle
466. second
467. needless
468. tray
469. hushed
470. jump
471. exciting
472. profit
473. admire
474. supply
475. waste
476. finicky
477. harm
478. curly
479. canvas
480. terrific
481. reaction
482. person
483. soak
484. yielding
485. zip
486. distance
487. cobweb
488. lip
489. cakes
490. geese
491. ink
492. crayon
493. quaint
494. crowd
495. ball
496. dear
497. first
498. hard-to-find
499. grin
500. aback
501. grubby
502. enthusiastic
503. trees
504. quill
505. heal
506. rifle
507. naive
508. bow
509. draconian
510. sparkling
511. deliver
512. stretch
513. clean
514. card
515. blade
516. sneeze
517. book
518. destroy
519. nappy
520. van
521. suggest
522. cry
523. burly
524. business
525. error
526. steep
527. straw
528. muscle
529. makeshift
530. astonishing
531. dog
532. jail
533. post
534. mute
535. wait
536. barbarous
537. dam
538. women
539. few
540. control
541. loaf
542. ill
543. puffy
544. pin
545. snatch
546. shut
547. ablaze
548. suspect
549. view
550. wave
551. present
552. roomy
553. fascinated
554. tease
555. fax
556. homely
557. design
558. scent
559. fire
560. glue
561. optimal
562. search
563. materialistic
564. momentous
565. launch
566. title
567. fasten
568. impossible
569. condition
570. horn
571. trail
572. bent
573. stamp
574. water
575. copy
576. squeeze
577. ossified
578. sweet
579. cherry
580. faithful
581. cow
582. immense
583. giants
584. huge
585. vivacious
586. fortunate
587. colorful
588. beef
589. deep
590. robin
591. innate
592. sturdy
593. educate
594. two
595. telling
596. hill
597. tidy
598. previous
599. jolly
600. suspend
601. night
602. near
603. amuck
604. young
605. unsightly
606. cough
607. flavor
608. silk
609. opposite
610. bawdy
611. ambiguous
612. lace
613. far-flung
614. comb
615. battle
616. dirty
617. kaput
618. sock
619. wilderness
620. handsomely
621. guess
622. spooky
623. rely
624. stew
625. arrange
626. connect
627. aboriginal
628. escape
629. health
630. bounce
631. small
632. chief
633. steam
634. minister
635. adventurous
636. majestic
637. placid
638. friend
639. glossy
640. obedient
641. blood
642. whimsical
643. babies
644. weather
645. scattered
646. illegal
647. unfasten
648. theory
649. mate
650. superb
651. fanatical
652. voice
653. badge
654. science
655. bear
656. minute
657. replace
658. crack
659. chunky
660. tense
661. pleasure
662. shock
663. thrill
664. closed
665. food
666. hurt
667. sink
668. locket
669. calculate
670. analyse
671. believe
672. understood
673. old
674. malicious
675. donkey
676. books
677. hurried
678. mark
679. aftermath
680. reduce
681. ludicrous
682. enter
683. brave
684. standing
685. undesirable
686. bucket
687. meeting
688. box
689. grease
690. idiotic
691. glorious
692. lavish
693. confuse
694. dynamic
695. burst
696. functional
697. five
698. sidewalk
699. stove
700. brainy
701. legal
702. possessive
703. pen
704. things
705. right
706. grumpy
707. value
708. busy
709. female
710. confused
711. fear
712. humorous
713. safe
714. impolite
715. hat
716. sniff
717. bikes
718. secretive
719. direful
720. knife
721. anger
722. mom
723. succeed
724. uneven
725. interrupt
726. cowardly
727. raise
728. tawdry
729. quack
730. talented
731. penitent
732. punishment
733. rail
734. six
735. statuesque
736. flowery
737. powder
738. cluttered
739. flashy
740. brass
741. door
742. wander
743. eight
744. rest
745. realise
746. icicle
747. trucks
748. energetic
749. historical
750. bang
751. command
752. cagey
753. merciful
754. fairies
755. sail
756. coat
757. double
758. ill-fated
759. sable
760. profuse
761. quartz
762. plastic
763. playground
764. adhesive
765. political
766. hose
767. venomous
768. reminiscent
769. day
770. icky
771. show
772. remember
773. drag
774. scale
775. school
776. bubble
777. subtract
778. spiffy
779. weight
780. invincible
781. hurry
782. permissible
783. nose
784. smoggy
785. yell
786. dizzy
787. zoo
788. yam
789. marvelous
790. bitter
791. sheep
792. big
793. panicky
794. crush
795. unnatural
796. scintillating
797. jaded
798. fall
799. frantic
800. likeable
801. gaudy
802. synonymous
803. long
804. cool
805. heavy
806. sick
807. cycle
808. faded
809. valuable
810. threatening
811. drunk
812. coast
813. kindhearted
814. frame
815. thirsty
816. difficult
817. follow
818. smart
819. mother
820. ignore
821. leather
822. eager
823. tire
824. scrape
825. worried
826. dreary
827. awful
828. marked
829. purring
830. slim
831. macabre
832. refuse
833. consider
834. death
835. material
836. polish
837. sponge
838. wriggle
839. suit
840. racial
841. quarter
842. blush
843. delicious
844. null
845. ocean
846. hateful
847. ring
848. territory
849. pathetic
850. report
851. suffer
852. highfalutin
853. occur
854. dock
855. quick
856. seat
857. multiply
858. injure
859. round
860. future
861. move
862. public
863. blue-eyed
864. instinctive
865. scare
866. temper
867. room
868. smiling
869. cave
870. cover
871. whine
872. bells
873. name
874. history
875. sound
876. haunt
877. friction
878. gabby
879. endurable
880. aquatic
881. embarrassed
882. war
883. rhyme
884. point
885. planes
886. happen
887. page
888. elastic
889. tiger
890. defeated
891. tooth
892. polite
893. gigantic
894. phobic
895. caring
896. regret
897. shaky
898. cold
899. tender
900. plantation
901. time
902. vein
903. religion
904. sassy
905. treat
906. crown
907. deserted
908. reflective
909. psychedelic
910. trust
911. thought
912. precious
913. toe
914. attract
915. known
916. amused
917. call
918. income
919. roll
920. plant
921. rule
922. scrawny
923. temporary
924. well-off
925. wonderful
926. efficacious
927. hop
928. invite
929. succinct
930. rain
931. squeak
932. alive
933. maid
934. ugliest
935. repair
936. numerous
937. boy
938. chase
939. pop
940. boring
941. building
942. frogs
943. heartbreaking
944. ubiquitous
945. guard
946. head
947. fresh
948. vegetable
949. truck
950. mature
951. curvy
952. well-groomed
953. window
954. precede
955. skillful
956. taboo
957. fantastic
958. womanly
959. rotten
960. dispensable
961. auspicious
962. cloudy
963. tip
964. painstaking
965. purple
966. train
967. board
968. early
969. mere
970. wooden
971. hysterical
972. driving
973. collar
974. match
975. tricky
976. moan
977. jittery
978. earthy
979. transport
980. lie
981. stale
982. humor
983. found
984. chess
985. linen
986. distinct
987. depend
988. pretend
989. weary
990. flaky
991. animated
992. direction
993. pigs
994. nauseating
995. overflow
996. popcorn
997. wool
998. class
999. plate
1000. wink
1001. disturbed
1002. pollution
1003. matter
1004. soup
1005. flat
1006. worthless
1007. number
1008. acrid
1009. farm
1010. uptight
1011. nod
1012. thread
1013. develop
1014. mushy
1015. label
1016. delight
1017. property
1018. testy
1019. tomatoes
1020. toys
1021. sincere
1022. various
1023. horse
1024. pets
1025. smile
1026. sneaky
1027. irritating
1028. special
1029. limping
1030. woebegone
1031. zinc
1032. cut
1033. spurious
1034. stranger
1035. paint
1036. sticks
1037. addicted
1038. mitten
1039. brother
1040. stitch
1041. purpose
1042. pricey
1043. kitty
1044. touch
1045. oranges
1046. shivering
1047. expect
1048. adamant
1049. expensive
1050. amusement
1051. available
1052. exultant
1053. man
1054. inexpensive
1055. dead
1056. yellow
1057. spare
1058. bath
1059. glass
1060. youthful
1061. misty
1062. outrageous
1063. grey
1064. actor
1065. fine
1066. juicy
1067. grip
1068. red
1069. respect
1070. ask
1071. unlock
1072. skinny
1073. reading
1074. fill
1075. yummy
1076. fork
1077. dime
1078. detailed
1079. program
1080. steady
1081. type
1082. acidic
1083. subdued
1084. bushes
1085. fluffy
1086. pet
1087. doubt
1088. volatile
1089. nippy
1090. size
1091. vessel
1092. turkey
1093. fruit
1094. birth
1095. parcel
1096. vague
1097. preserve
1098. luxuriant
1099. correct
1100. disgusting
1101. wasteful
1102. voyage
1103. legs
1104. symptomatic
1105. soap
1106. satisfy
1107. risk
1108. foregoing
1109. toes
1110. boast
1111. travel
1112. belief
1113. disagreeable
1114. meal
1115. loutish
1116. doctor
1117. careless
1118. trousers
1119. dogs
1120. suggestion
1121. needle
1122. zephyr
1123. secret
1124. thankful
1125. discreet
1126. waggish
1127. line
1128. workable
1129. creator
1130. tempt
1131. beam
1132. earsplitting
1133. noisy
1134. private
1135. grandfather
1136. funny
1137. ahead
1138. airplane
1139. space
1140. sweltering
1141. chubby
1142. shaggy
1143. substantial
1144. bruise
1145. scary
1146. sprout
1147. baby
1148. certain
1149. fly
1150. abstracted
1151. responsible
1152. include
1153. puny
1154. automatic
1155. married
1156. absent
1157. roof
1158. nation
1159. eye
1160. oafish
1161. disarm
1162. expert
1163. distribution
1164. representative
1165. paper
1166. skip
1167. hour
1168. learn
1169. ugly
1170. quiver
1171. want
1172. drab
1173. wound
1174. thick
1175. discover
1176. frightening
1177. boot
1178. sour
1179. hulking
1180. queue
1181. prevent
1182. close
1183. hands
1184. drink
1185. porter
1186. stingy
1187. magical
1188. action
1189. fold
1190. truthful
1191. spring
1192. clap
1193. overrated
1194. cooing
1195. throne
1196. bury
1197. oven
1198. cuddly
1199. nifty
1200. glib
1201. turn
1202. hollow
1203. delightful
1204. digestion
1205. jumbled
1206. wrench
1207. scared
1208. ethereal
1209. beautiful
1210. tramp
1211. same
1212. rock
1213. vacuous
1214. rare
1215. river
1216. string
1217. peaceful
1218. cabbage
1219. creature
1220. annoyed
1221. strip
1222. unaccountable
1223. wistful
1224. groovy
1225. applaud
1226. terrify
1227. exchange
1228. motion
1229. intelligent
1230. memory
1231. lazy
1232. weak
1233. harmony
1234. cloth
1235. answer
1236. base
1237. file
1238. lethal
1239. spot
1240. embarrass
1241. flow
1242. thumb
1243. dependent
1244. adjustment
1245. domineering
1246. table
1247. rabbit
1248. rightful
1249. radiate
1250. victorious
1251. blushing
1252. lucky
1253. defiant
1254. fry
1255. fireman
1256. claim
1257. throat
1258. camera
1259. sparkle
1260. station
1261. dare
1262. famous
1263. fix
1264. nest
1265. effect
1266. stick
1267. chance
1268. share
1269. soothe
1270. remarkable
1271. selfish
1272. son
1273. impress
1274. sack
1275. glow
1276. wide
1277. vast
1278. road
1279. mellow
1280. society
1281. electric
1282. lettuce
1283. ten
1284. stupid
1285. nonstop
1286. quirky
1287. pine
1288. gleaming
1289. dislike
1290. aggressive
1291. greasy
1292. elegant
1293. messy
1294. stone
1295. identify
1296. itch
1297. ad hoc
1298. seemly
1299. preach
1300. slip
1301. innocent
1302. living
1303. plan
1304. staking
1305. tame
1306. accurate
1307. flower
1308. fang
1309. flagrant
1310. gratis
1311. use
1312. join
1313. tangible
1314. letter
1315. faint
1316. charge
1317. kettle
1318. square
1319. decorate
1320. balance
1321. home
1322. alarm
1323. uncovered
1324. lean
1325. sip
1326. petite
1327. employ
1328. guiltless
1329. drum
1330. foot
1331. earth
1332. morning
1333. ambitious
1334. attempt
1335. breathe
1336. house
1337. high
1338. beg
1339. juice
1340. protect
1341. jar
1342. instruct
1343. ground
1344. spoil
1345. angle
1346. shrill
1347. key
1348. exuberant
1349. curved
1350. mug
1351. top
1352. bite-sized
1353. sulky
1354. flash
1355. wash
1356. zoom
1357. low
1358. kindly
1359. sticky
1360. engine
1361. walk
1362. diligent
1363. liquid
1364. chew
1365. striped
1366. live
1367. daffy
1368. husky
1369. alluring
1370. invent
1371. hanging
1372. jog
1373. cheer
1374. blow
1375. stereotyped
1376. scandalous
1377. compare
1378. violent
1379. request
1380. macho
1381. unadvised
1382. care
1383. cows
1384. harsh
1385. madly
1386. thaw
1387. leg
1388. blot
1389. colour
1390. mine
1391. unkempt
1392. hellish
1393. trace
1394. psychotic
1395. question
1396. stage
1397. clammy
1398. true
1399. relieved
1400. fit
1401. plucky
1402. nutritious
1403. rhetorical
1404. continue
1405. behavior
1406. outgoing
1407. unknown
1408. trip
1409. illustrious
1410. longing
1411. accessible
1412. seed
1413. own
1414. letters
1415. yard
1416. mass
1417. loss
1418. ashamed
1419. cook
1420. false
1421. heap
1422. wood
1423. crash
1424. adaptable
1425. loose
1426. paste
1427. harmonious
1428. dusty
1429. envious
1430. exotic
1431. premium
1432. didactic
1433. miniature
1434. watery
1435. enormous
1436. border
1437. deer
1438. expansion
1439. flimsy
1440. pail
1441. childlike
1442. puzzling
1443. choke
1444. side
1445. breezy
1446. rescue
1447. sofa
1448. useful
1449. kneel
1450. spicy
1451. divide
1452. horrible
1453. dramatic
1454. nut
1455. grotesque
1456. disapprove
1457. creepy
1458. cup
1459. used
1460. lick
1461. pies
1462. fluttering
1463. magic
1464. absurd
1465. conscious
1466. far
1467. supreme
1468. finger
1469. breakable
1470. rose
1471. onerous
1472. appreciate
1473. shade
1474. one
1475. mean
1476. trade
1477. knowledgeable
1478. punish
1479. achiever
1480. suppose
1481. successful
1482. calculating
1483. befitting
1484. mint
1485. hug
1486. end
1487. force
1488. many
1489. weigh
1490. snore
1491. perpetual
1492. governor
1493. guarded
1494. colossal
1495. nonchalant
1496. disgusted
1497. drop
1498. drown
1499. back
1500. scarf
1501. dangerous
1502. limit
1503. laughable
1504. trap
1505. wipe
1506. vengeful
1507. hungry
1508. agonizing
1509. wet
1510. wall
1511. structure
1512. demonic
1513. hover
1514. handsome
1515. verdant
1516. abject
1517. repeat
1518. rush
1519. brick
1520. trouble
1521. overt
1522. talk
1523. shirt
1524. loud
1525. caption
1526. government
1527. melodic
1528. full
1529. bare
1530. snobbish
1531. healthy
1532. common
1533. signal
1534. friendly
1535. fat
1536. puncture
1537. plain
1538. abounding
1539. ruin
1540. shocking
1541. entertaining
1542. fail
1543. communicate
1544. comparison
1545. pleasant
1546. sigh
1547. amazing
1548. bag
1549. channel
1550. treatment
1551. visitor
1552. saw
1553. addition
1554. wire
1555. naughty
1556. intend
1557. fog
1558. simple
1559. self
1560. whispering
1561. protest
1562. accept
1563. swim
1564. massive
1565. thundering
1566. dolls
1567. north
1568. attack
1569. edge
1570. warlike
1571. girl
1572. feigned
1573. giant
1574. clear
1575. race
1576. soda
1577. harass
1578. sugar
1579. dinosaurs
1580. abiding
1581. marry
1582. charming
1583. gusty
1584. equable
1585. attach
1586. idea
1587. grade
1588. bedroom
1589. amount
1590. abaft
1591. lacking
1592. thin
1593. wax
1594. elfin
1595. whistle
1596. unable
1597. protective
1598. tasteless
1599. carpenter
1600. arrive
1601. stay
1602. squealing
1603. questionable
1604. agree
1605. desk
1606. mice
1607. wobble
1608. hilarious
1609. authority
1610. best
1611. apathetic
1612. scarecrow
1613. chilly
1614. watch
1615. scene
1616. machine
1617. tour
1618. song
1619. physical
1620. ajar
1621. cannon
1622. wholesale
1623. jam
1624. cattle
1625. keen
1626. flap
1627. spotted
1628. tickle
1629. pest
1630. typical
1631. ruddy
1632. unruly
1633. influence
1634. inconclusive
1635. argument
1636. damaged
1637. real
1638. pumped
1639. flight
1640. tin
1641. gullible
1642. ordinary
1643. teeny-tiny
1644. stormy
1645. afraid
1646. reign
1647. fretful
1648. insidious
1649. past
1650. serve
1651. untidy
1652. angry
1653. plants
1654. word
1655. snakes
1656. melted
1657. hand
1658. encouraging
1659. internal
1660. impulse
1661. houses
1662. ratty
1663. manage
1664. nerve
1665. slope
1666. bloody
1667. industry
1668. hang
1669. bike
1670. kick
1671. quixotic
1672. green
1673. middle
1674. berserk
1675. tap
1676. shop
1677. resolute
1678. reproduce
1679. tiny
1680. trashy
1681. air
1682. greet
1683. old-fashioned
1684. craven
1685. vagabond
1686. whole
1687. hobbies
1688. spotless
1689. regular
1690. ray
1691. steer
1692. cap
1693. start
1694. flag
1695. blue
1696. guide
1697. stocking
1698. vase
1699. hunt
1700. coordinated
1701. cushion
1702. permit
1703. gorgeous
1704. entertain
1705. uttermost
1706. snake
1707. whirl
1708. boorish
1709. combative
1710. squeal
1711. picayune
1712. cheese
1713. dry
1714. abrupt
1715. division
1716. cultured
1717. admit
1718. imperfect
1719. rice
1720. impartial
1721. elbow
1722. wide-eyed
1723. rural
1724. ritzy
1725. earthquake
1726. frequent
1727. pencil
1728. poor
1729. woozy
1730. receptive
1731. bleach
1732. prepare
1733. tree
1734. run
1735. flowers
1736. toad
1737. satisfying
1738. warm
1739. vanish
1740. team
1741. cure
1742. tacky
1743. observation
1744. afterthought
1745. silly
1746. glove
1747. need
1748. scientific
1749. general
1750. sleepy
1751. wren
1752. neat
1753. notebook
1754. courageous
1755. clumsy
1756. sand
1757. productive
1758. rub
1759. promise
1760. education
1761. offbeat
1762. lying
1763. gun
1764. late
1765. passenger
1766. abortive
1767. irate
1768. development
1769. telephone
1770. soggy
1771. literate
1772. gray
1773. add
1774. hospitable
1775. poised
1776. egg
1777. steel
1778. offer
1779. loving
1780. deadpan
1781. jelly
1782. record
1783. squash
1784. wrist
1785. wing
1786. unequal
1787. flesh
1788. lame
1789. mist
1790. form
1791. outstanding
1792. town
1793. example
1794. splendid
1795. hall
1796. aromatic
1797. concerned
1798. hard
1799. honorable
1800. disillusioned
1801. celery
1802. bouncy
1803. magnificent
1804. melt
1805. exist
1806. lamentable
1807. sky
1808. gentle
1809. little
1810. nimble
1811. nostalgic
1812. approval
1813. rat
1814. violet
1815. pump
1816. romantic
1817. support
1818. boundless
1819. giraffe
1820. joyous
1821. rob
1822. bone
1823. men
1824. plausible
1825. island
1826. stare
1827. dark
1828. robust
1829. aloof
1830. fixed
1831. zebra
1832. voiceless
1833. powerful
1834. airport
1835. sign
1836. lowly
1837. extend
1838. beginner
1839. pancake
1840. great
1841. possess
1842. stimulating
1843. thoughtful
1844. rabbits
1845. laborer
1846. actually
1847. contain
1848. examine
1849. help
1850. adorable
1851. belligerent
1852. nine
1853. toothpaste
1854. country
1855. decide
1856. painful
1857. rambunctious
1858. doubtful
1859. slap
1860. truculent
1861. mindless
1862. pastoral
1863. wry
1864. note
1865. poke
1866. pear
1867. test
1868. invention
1869. prefer
1870. rich
1871. wine
1872. drip
1873. cat
1874. spiteful
1875. payment
1876. silent
1877. savory
1878. tasty
1879. stroke
1880. apologise
1881. strap
1882. screeching
1883. skin
1884. basketball
1885. modern
1886. gaze
1887. mourn
1888. gifted
1889. drawer
1890. clever
1891. practise
1892. frightened
1893. field
1894. license
1895. acid
1896. order
1897. acoustic
1898. rampant
1899. car
1900. daily
1901. futuristic
1902. produce
1903. church
1904. parched
1905. boundary
1906. activity
1907. moaning
1908. stiff
1909. wild
1910. oceanic
1911. week
1912. shame
1913. whisper
1914. even
1915. poison
1916. announce
1917. thank
1918. calculator
1919. enchanted
1920. yoke
1921. spiders
1922. cellar
1923. shallow
1924. prick
1925. rustic
1926. fertile
1927. serious
1928. story
1929. elated
1930. windy
1931. towering
1932. act
1933. jobless
1934. welcome
1935. terrible
1936. knee
1937. credit
1938. fence
1939. ultra
1940. eatable
1941. sort
1942. sloppy
1943. waves
1944. cake
1945. writing
1946. vulgar
1947. art
1948. tie
1949. confess
1950. current
1951. swanky
1952. children
1953. unwritten
1954. warn
1955. monkey
1956. fast
1957. royal
1958. skate
1959. paddle
1960. handle
1961. peace
1962. snotty
1963. large
1964. superficial
1965. upset
1966. destruction
1967. dull
1968. dashing
1969. languid
1970. peel
1971. sedate
1972. cloistered
1973. curtain
1974. frog
1975. spy
1976. fish
1977. devilish
1978. damage
1979. quilt
1980. knot
1981. zipper
1982. ducks
1983. holiday
1984. next
1985. gaping
1986. shoe
1987. oil
1988. awesome
1989. knit
1990. kill
1991. motionless
1992. rake
1993. bee
1994. soft
1995. taste
1996. aboard
1997. zesty
1998. left
1999. peck
2000. somber
2001. object
2002. picture
2003. seal
2004. bad
2005. hot
2006. rainy
2007. recognise
2008. tall
2009. organic
2010. ill-informed
2011. cactus
2012. decisive
2013. cynical
2014. crib
2015. load
2016. tug
2017. boil
2018. last
2019. spark
2020. wrathful
2021. dapper
2022. twist
2023. kittens
2024. efficient
2025. smooth
2026. horses
2027. grass
2028. unsuitable
2029. uncle
2030. hissing
2031. friends
2032. capable
2033. bump
2034. group
2035. obscene
2036. furry
2037. tested
2038. groan
2039. competition
2040. fancy
2041. obsequious
2042. familiar
2043. blink
2044. doll
2045. unpack
2046. strengthen
2047. unused
2048. jellyfish
2049. surprise
2050. lewd
2051. irritate
2052. zany
2053. festive
2054. army
2055. learned
2056. crow
2057. wish
2058. fuzzy
2059. park
2060. obtainable
2061. orange
2062. scarce
2063. substance
2064. delay
2065. abundant
2066. collect
2067. owe
2068. neighborly
2069. alert
2070. pull
2071. cart
2072. educated
2073. overjoyed
2074. visit
2075. bat
2076. flock
2077. lopsided
2078. bird
2079. trick
2080. girls
2081. debonair
2082. lonely
2083. clover
2084. broken
2085. club
2086. shiver
2087. lunchroom
2088. spell
2089. button
2090. amuse
2091. erratic
2092. range
2093. clam
2094. natural
2095. fetch
2096. screw
2097. hesitant
2098. kind
2099. normal
2100. joke
2101. rhythm
2102. spoon
2103. murky
2104. perform
2105. mend
2106. tightfisted
2107. extra-small
2108. squirrel
2109. ski
2110. hammer
2111. street
2112. industrious
2113. subsequent
2114. graceful
2115. fumbling
2116. adjoining
2117. notice
2118. spiritual
2119. sisters
2120. cats
2121. sophisticated
2122. detect
2123. gainful
2124. reply
2125. abrasive
2126. cemetery
2127. boat
2128. tongue
2129. glamorous
2130. teaching
2131. salt
2132. pan
2133. cherries
2134. x-ray
2135. toy
2136. excite
2137. silver
2138. tenuous
2139. three
2140. thing
2141. spotty
2142. quince
2143. prose
2144. connection
2145. market
2146. filthy
2147. shiny
2148. boiling
2149. useless
2150. jewel
2151. long-term
2152. snail
2153. lamp
2154. unit
2155. can
2156. obese
2157. roasted
2158. bustling
2159. consist
2160. wreck
2161. power
2162. better
2163. excited
2164. milk
2165. exercise
2166. clip
2167. mix
2168. thinkable
2169. sad
2170. birds
2171. decorous
2172. flawless
2173. earn
2174. callous
2175. wary
2176. save
2177. spiky
2178. careful
2179. attraction
2180. challenge
2181. toothbrush
2182. accidental
2183. bore
2184. trot
2185. improve
2186. interesting
2187. short
2188. riddle
2189. solid
2190. recondite
2191. moldy
2192. mind
2193. imaginary
2194. toothsome
2195. company
2196. uppity
2197. work
2198. abnormal
2199. elite
2200. heady
2201. phone
2202. tart
2203. face
2204. wail
2205. coal
2206. pack
2207. shelter
2208. interfere
2209. evasive
2210. ear
2211. black
2212. crowded
2213. new
2214. tow
2215. argue
2216. attractive
2217. dazzling
2218. calm
2219. unite
2220. bolt
2221. afford
2222. remind
2223. measly
2224. able
2225. nosy
2226. love
2227. statement
2228. knock
2229. approve
2230. bathe
2231. butter
2232. play
2233. wind
2234. erect
2235. crazy
2236. change
2237. carry
2238. fact
2239. stain
2240. milky
2241. degree
2242. moor
2243. pie
2244. broad
2245. stomach
2246. faulty
2247. pink
2248. eggs
2249. root
2250. writer
2251. smash
2252. partner
2253. existence
2254. judge
2255. store
2256. seashore
2257. disastrous
2258. reward
2259. tremendous
2260. quicksand
2261. scissors
2262. like
2263. dirt
2264. lush
2265. complex
2266. piquant
2267. experience
2268. haircut
2269. cause
2270. cast
2271. allow
2272. sordid
2273. explode
2274. metal
2275. incredible
2276. cub
2277. humdrum
2278. tax
2279. umbrella
2280. interest
2281. grouchy
2282. ceaseless
2283. hope
2284. light
2285. acoustics
2286. scorch
2287. straight
2288. paltry
2289. elderly
2290. delirious
2291. tired
2292. check
2293. oval
2294. tough
2295. scream
2296. bit
2297. unbiased
2298. try
2299. jealous
2300. mask
2301. muddled
2302. smoke
2303. open
2304. furtive
2305. dysfunctional
2306. spill
2307. agreeable
2308. nail
2309. stupendous
2310. itchy
2311. observe
2312. brawny
2313. lock
2314. foamy
2315. sister
2316. spray
2317. listen
2318. month
2319. foolish
2320. steadfast
2321. flame
2322. daughter
2323. pray
2324. wiry
2325. secretary
2326. spade
2327. meat
2328. economic
2329. rot
2330. lively
2331. forgetful
2332. bite
2333. squalid
2334. wrong
2335. introduce
2336. meddle
2337. chop
2338. ice
2339. receipt
2340. hallowed
2341. punch
2342. nondescript
2343. system
2344. mysterious
2345. swift
2346. expand
2347. detail
2348. lumber
2349. chalk
2350. lake
2351. medical
2352. trains
2353. freezing
2354. stop
2355. cream
2356. bewildered
2357. cautious
2358. unusual
2359. tail
2360. library
2361. annoy
2362. oatmeal
2363. whip
2364. tan
2365. tiresome
2366. decay
2367. carve
2368. chin
2369. damp
2370. knowing
2371. avoid
2372. raspy
2373. worm
2374. prickly
2375. lackadaisical
2376. wealthy
2377. minor
2378. mountainous
2379. determined
2380. bizarre
2381. thunder
2382. beneficial
2383. enchanting
2384. floor
2385. lumpy
2386. chickens
2387. guitar
2388. desire
2389. wrap
2390. year
2391. crate
2392. mighty
2393. good
2394. hole
2395. copper
2396. fabulous
2397. white
2398. godly
2399. jagged
2400. cruel
2401. knotty
2402. parallel
2403. committee
2404. sleet
2405. heavenly
2406. helpless
2407. four
2408. fragile
2409. fuel
2410. inject
2411. cumbersome
2412. tedious
2413. offend
2414. basin
2415. imported
2416. memorise
2417. tight
2418. witty
2419. crabby
2420. gruesome
2421. bored
2422. redundant
2423. queen
2424. aware
2425. cooperative
2426. deafening
2427. simplistic
2428. dream
2429. bashful
2430. apparel
2431. provide
2432. capricious
2433. remove
2434. ready
2435. flood
2436. mailbox
2437. obey
2438. narrow
2439. helpful
2440. count
2441. fair
2442. deeply
2443. habitual
2444. smelly
2445. odd
2446. veil
2447. teeny
2448. needy
2449. maddening
2450. comfortable
2451. coil
2452. ban
2453. parsimonious
2454. arithmetic
2455. arrogant
2456. delicate
2457. advise
2458. eminent
2459. pedal
2460. blind
2461. annoying
2462. skirt
2463. bed
2464. cheat
2465. baseball
2466. shape