Had to change the format so I followed the community rules.
The 2020 college football season has come to a close with the Alabama Crimson Tide once again on top of the college football world. Bama won an exciting, albeit lopsided, national championship game over Ohio State as Nick Saban claimed his seventh title.
As you might expect, this mock is going to feature a lot of soon-to-be former Tide players and a few Buckeyes as well. I have six Alabama players coming off the board in the first round, including quarterback Mac Jones.
Speaking of quarterbacks, there are six that I could see drafted in the first two rounds at this point. There is still a ton of assessing to be done with the Senior Bowl coming up, hopefully, followed by the NFL scouting combine.
There are two trades that occur in the first round of this mock, both involving quarterbacks.
Cincinnati trades 1.5 and 5.133 to San Francisco for 1.12, 2.43 and a 2022 first-round pick Detroit trades 1.7 to New England for 1.15, 2.46 and 2022 first-round pick
The draft order is according to Tankathon and updated through the wildcard weekend. Time to dive in!

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

I know there is some buzz about Urban Meyer landing with the Jaguars and taking Justin Fields. I don't buy it. Trevor Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects of all time. His poise, athleticism and arm strength make him a Day 1 starter. He would give Jacksonville it's most exciting quarterback situation in franchise history.

New York Jets (2-14) - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

This comes down to Justin Fields vs. Zach Wilson. It's going to be close. As of right now, I give the edge to Wilson. He has incredible zip on his throws and a lightning quick release. Wilson is a proven runner as well. He will need to take care of his body at the next level, but he looks the part of an NFL quarterback. It is no secret he works hard either. The Jets would find a potential new leader for their offense.

Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (10-6) - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

There is some buzz about the Dolphins trading this pick back to the Texans in a deal for Deshaun Watson. If that is on the table, Miami should pull the trigger. Otherwise, this team should stand pat and protect Tua. There are plenty of other receivers to take later in this draft. There are not many offensive tackles like Penei Sewell though. He is a polished pass blocker with good functional athleticism and plenty of play strength. He sat out the 2020 season, but he will remind everyone at the combine (assuming it happens) just how talented he is.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12) - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

While some will advocate for a quarterback here, Matt Ryan likely isn't going anywhere anytime soon because of his contract. Instead, the Falcons take a talented player at a huge position of need. Drafting Patrick Surtain II gives Atlanta a tandem of young corners to build the defense around. Surtain has great ball skills and an NFL pedigree. Not to mention he brings plenty of big-game experience coming out of Alabama. This defense allowed the most passing yards per game in 2020. Don't overthink it. Grab a top-end corner and move forward.

San Francisco 49ers via Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

With two of the top four quarterbacks still on the board and Penei Sewell already gone, phones in Cincinnati would be lighting up! The Bengals move down, allowing the 49ers to find their quarterback of the future. Cutting Jimmy Garoppolo saves a ton of cap space. Justin Fields' ceiling is higher than that of Garoppolo's too. Fields brings a ton of intangibles to the table with his arm strength and speed. He definitely needs to improve some of his decision making and work on consistently hitting his release. Working with Kyle Shanahan would be a great way to help him reach his full potential.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

If Patrick Surtain was still here, that would have been the pick. However, it is hard to be mad about landing the top receiver in the class. Ja'Marr Chase is a matchup nightmare with a great blend of size and speed. He dominated the SEC in 2019 before opting out in 2020. He would give whomever the Eagles decide to start at quarterback a clear No. 1 receiver. Philly has been looking to fill that void for a long time.

New England Patriots via Detroit Lions (5-11) - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Detroit has a ton of holes to fill and a new general manager coming in. I think we could see them trade down come April. The Patriots jump up to find a succession plan to Tom Brady, probably a few years too late. Trey Lance is a bit more raw than the other top quarterback prospects, but he has some special physical tools. If he gets a year to get up to speed in the NFL and improve his deep accuracy, he could be a long-term solution at quarterback for years to come. With his effortless arm strength and impressive mobility, the sky is the limit for Lance.

Carolina Panthers (5-11) - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Sometimes, things just fall into place perfectly. Carolina needs a new linebacker to roam the field and match wits with opposing quarterbacks. Micah Parsons could step in from Day 1 and provide a huge boost to an exciting young defense. He has the prototypical size teams want for modern day linebackers with some added pass rushing potential. Parsons won't be Luke Keuchley, but he is probably the team's best option to attempt to fill the void he left when he retired.

Denver Broncos (5-11) - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

I'm not forgetting about Bradley Chubb or Von Miller, with the latter hopefully coming back from injury at full strength in 2021. Gregorey Rousseau has the potential to take over at one of the defensive end spots though while Miller and Chubb play on the outside. Rousseau is huge at 6'7" with room to add some muscle to that frame. He looks most comfortable rushing the passer from the interior in the limited tape I've watched so far of him at Miami. Denver needs a jolt in its front three. Rousseau has the potential to become a cornerstone player on this defense.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10) - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

When you allow the most points in franchise history and fire your defensive coordinator after one season, it's probably a good sign that you need to add some talent to your defense. Caleb Farley is a big, physical corner who can command a spot on the outside for this Cowboys defense. After sitting out the 2020 season, he will get a chance to solidify his draft stock at the combine. Dallas desperately missed Byron Jones this year. While Farley is not a like-for-like fit, he can help fill the void and create an exciting young tandem with Trevon Diggs.

New York Giants (6-10) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

If you want to rank the Alabama receivers over the past two years, Jaylen Waddle is second on my list behind Jerry Jeudy. Yes, I would take him over DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs. While Smith, deservedly, won the Heisman, Waddle was in the conversation this year before he got hurt. He was the go-to player in the offense, amassing 557 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his four games before the injury. Waddle is electric in the open field. I like how he projects to the next level just a bit more than Smith. If the Giants are determined to see Daniel Jones succeed, finding a playmaker like Waddle will make a huge difference.

Cincinnati Bengals via San Francisco 49ers (6-10) - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Slide down seven spots and land an offensive line prospect with tons of potential? Sign every Bengals fan in the world up for that. Probably sign Joe Burrow up for that too. Christian Darrisaw has a bit of developing still to do, but he looks very comfortable playing on the left side of the line. His size and athleticism point to tons of untapped potential. He has room to improve in his footwork and technique, but those are coachable aspects of the game.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

Protecting Justin Herbert should be the top priority for the Chargers this offseason. For a team that seems to be growing into a potential championship window with a rookie quarterback, finding a franchise tackle to grow with it would be a great fit. Samuel Cosmi's ceiling might be the highest of any offensive tackle in this draft. At 6'7", 309 lbs, Cosmi is huge, but he moves like a much smaller man. He looks comfortable pulling, blocking in space and anchoring down on the quarterback's blind side. He is extremely raw and will need some good coaching to perfect his technique, hand usage and footwork to reach his potential. In two years though, he could be one of the top five tackles in the league. There is some risk though that he ends up being a guard if he cannot develop.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9) - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Mike Zimmer called this the worst defense he has ever had. Let's assume they will look to rebuild it then during the 2021 offseason. Jaycee Horn has lockdown corner potential. He is an elite man-to-man corner. South Carolina moved him all over the formation, allowing him to gain some experience in the slot, blitzing off the edge, playing off coverage and playing zone. He should upgrade the secondary right away. This does not mean Minnesota is bailing on Jeff Gladney after a rough rookie season. Adding Horn just creates more depth and potential for a turnaround next season.

Detroit Lions via New England Patriots (7-9) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Cue the "did you even watch the national championship game?" reactions. DeVonta Smith has been the best offensive player in college football this season. The combination of speed, route running and catch radius makes him lethal. Opposing defenses have had no answer. The main concerns are about his size. He has a very slight frame at 175 lbs, which begs questions about his ability to survive in the NFL. He will also face some major better defenses at the next level. After trading down, the Lions can invest in either a replacement for Kenny Golladay or someone to line up across from him in the future.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

This has become one of my favorite prospect-team pairings in these early mock drafts. Kyle Pitts would thrive in the Cardinals offense. It would hide a number of his shortcomings as a blocker by allowing him to flex out and make plays in space. He would give Kyler Murray a great target over the middle of the field and in the red zone and open up more opportunities for DeAndre Hopkins. The drop off from Hopkins to the next-best receiving option in this offense is steep. Pitts would bridge the gap.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8) - Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama

Las Vegas' defense was not what many had hoped for after some signs of progress in 2019. The pass rush regressed and the secondary struggled. Enter Christian Barmore. Fresh off a dominant national championship game, he showcased his talent and potential heading into a potential NFL career. His ability as an interior pass rusher would fill a huge need for the Raiders.

Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

Still not a receiver. I will get there, I promise Dolphins fans. Miami got solid production out of Andrew Van Ginkel and Kyle Van Noy, but neither one is irreplaceable. Azeez Ojulari is a polished pass rusher with an array of moves at his disposal to beat opposing offensive tackles. He would provide the Dolphins with a situational rusher who can develop into a long-term starter at outside linebacker in Brian Flores' defense.

Washington Football Team (7-9) - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Taylor Heinicke and Alex Smith are both great stories, but neither projects as the long-term answer at quarterback for Washington. Mac Jones went from being Tua's backup to the Davey O'Brien winner and Heisman finalist. He is incredibly accurate, looks comfortable in the pocket and has great touch on his deep ball. He might not be as athletic as the four quarterbacks who went before him, but he can use his legs to extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield. He benefited from a great supporting cast, but he deserves some credit for Alabama's success this year as well.

Chicago Bears (8-8) - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Allen Robinson seems headed for an exit this offseason. With Jones off the board, there are no quarterbacks worth taking here, so receiver becomes the next position of focus. Rashod Bateman has the size and playmaking skills to make Bears fans feel a little better about likely losing Robinson. He had a bit of an off 2020 season, opting out, then opting back in and opting out again after five games. He has the size to be a possession receiver, but flashes good run after the catch ability too. Expect whoever is Chicago's quarterback in 2021 to benefit from having him in the offense.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pittsburgh

The Colts defense was one of the best in the league this year against the run, but pretty average against the pass. The best way to disrupt an opponent's passing attack is to generate pressure. Patrick Jones II excels in that department. He has 17.5 sacks over the past two seasons. He fits the mold of a 4-3 defensive end and would give the Colts a successor to Justin Houston, who turns 32 later this month. Jones is one of my favorite edge rushers in this class and I think this would be a great fit for him.

Tennessee Titans (11-5) - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

It took me a bit, but I think I have figured out my pro comp for Zaven Collins. Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr. Both are outside linebackers who can hang in pass coverage but make their biggest impact rushing the passer. Collins is a little bit heavier than Barr, but both fit similar size profiles as well. Tennessee desperately needs a playmaker like that. The Titans had just 19 sacks as a team this season. Collins had 4.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in eight games. He is the type of disruptive force this defense is lacking.

New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks (2-14) - Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State

After grabbing Zach Wilson, protecting him needs to be the priority. Wyatt Davis is the best interior lineman in this class. He has great size and lots of experience after starting for the past two years. He would provide a nice boost to the interior of this Jets offensive line and some much needed run blocking. Joe Douglas spent a lot on the offensive line in free agency without much success. Davis and Mekhi Becton would give the Jets two great building blocks to rely on as they reshape the unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Did Pittsburgh throw it more than anyone else strictly by design or because they lost faith in the running game? Hard to know which is true, but either way, the Steelers cannot continue to rely on Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball 50+ times per game. That's not sustainable. Najee Harris is the top running back in this class and could very well come off the board before this. He is physical, fast and consistent. His blend of quickness and power is pretty impressive. What makes him worthy of a first-round pick is his ability as a pass catcher. Harris caught 65 passes over the past two seasons. A 230-pound back who can get involved in the passing game? That is a special combination.

Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams (1-15) - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame

Cam Robinson did not have a great 2020 season and it is time that the Jaguars think about moving on from him at left tackle. Protecting Trevor Lawrence is going to be a big priority. Liam Eichenburg is one of the most pro ready tackles in this class. He is incredibly polished and technically sound. His upside is limited by a lack of speed, but he can be the anchor on the left side of the line.

Cleveland Browns (11-5) - Jeremiah Owusu-Komaroah, LB, Notre Dame

Cleveland's postseason run is going to continue for a little bit longer, but it is clear where they could use some help on defense. With no clear secondary pick here, the Browns can grab a high-upside linebacker. Jeremiah Owusu-Komaroah is a fantastic cover player with sideline-to-sideline ability. Given the Browns struggles in pass coverage this season, this would be a useful addition to the defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

Tampa Bay is in win-now mode with Tom Brady, but they can afford to go with a raw, high-upside edge rusher as they continue to build depth on defense. Kwity Paye has all the physical tools you hope for in an edge rusher at 6'4" and roughly 270 lbs. He didn't produce much at Michigan with just 11.5 sacks in 28 career games. However, teams will be betting they can help unlock his potential and turn him into a physically dominant edge rusher.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma

Another prospect and team pairing that I really like, Baltimore's offensive line has not been the dominant unit we have become accustomed to watching in recent years. Ronnie Stanley went down after just seven games. Matt Skura had issues snapping the ball at times this season. Plugging in a pro-ready option like Creed Humphrey at center would be a great move for Baltimore. Humphrey has plenty of experience blocking for mobile quarterbacks, playing with Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Blocking for Lamar Jackson should be a seamless transition.

New Orleans Saints (12-4) - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC

The Saints are in for a big offseason as the team figures out its direction after Drew Brees' career ends. New Orleans has been searching for linebacking help for years now. Finding a high-character and dynamic leader like Chazz Surratt at the end of the first round would be a great addition. Surratt is a former quarterback who is still learning the position. However, he has thrived under Mack Brown over the past two seasons starting for UNC. He could take over for Demario Davis, who just turned 32, when he decides to retire.

Buffalo Bills (13-3) - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

Another great fit for both prospect and team here. Buffalo could use an upgrade at tight end. What makes this such a great fit is Pat Freiermuth's ability as both a blocker and inline receiver. He is not the same type of receiving threat as someone like Kyle Pitts, but he is a well-rounded player that fills a huge need. Giving Josh Allen an elite tight end to work with is only going to elevate his game further.

Green Bay Packers (13-3) - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

There is a time and place to grab a receiver, but that is probably later in the draft. Green Bay has David Bahktiari locked up for a while, but he suffered a major injury and Bryan Bulaga left last offseason. Suddenly, this once stout offensive line is starting to deteriorate. Letting Rashawn Slater start his career at right tackle could be great for his development. He has a long way to go when it comes to hand usage and has some flaws in his pass blocking technique, but he shows flashes of being a punishing blocker. Investing in protecting Aaron Rodgers, or eventually Jordan Love, is a good plan.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee

Kansas City has not looked quite as sharp over the final few weeks of the season. Part of that has been inconsistent offensive line play. Andrew Wylie has struggled and could be in danger of being replaced in 2021. Trey Smith is a physical specimen at 6'6", 330 lbs. He started his career at tackle before kicking inside to guard. He played really well for Tennessee in 2020 and could be in line to start on Day 1. Worst-case scenario, he provides some crucial depth for the defending champs at either guard or tackle spot.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) - Carlos Basham Jr., DL, Wake Forest

With two exciting edge rushers in Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson, Jacksonville could use an upgrade along the inside of the defensive line. Carlos Basham Jr. is a bit of a tweener, playing snaps at defensive end and defensive tackle. That versatility would be valuable to a Jaguars defense that was one of the worst in football this past year.

New York Jets (2-14) - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

New York is in desperate need of some edge rushing help. Ranking in the bottom third in sacks for what feels like the 10th year in a row has to end at some point for the Jets to turn things around. Joseph Ossai is an intriguing prospect, having played more of an off-ball linebacker role prior to the 2020 season. However, he showed enough promise as an edge rusher for the Jets to add him here.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12) - Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

Atlanta continues its search for an edge rusher. After spending several premium picks and some cap space in recent years, this could be the end of the line. Jaelan Phillips flashed tons of speed and potential to produce at the NFL level in his one year at Miami. The Falcons would be banking on that being a sign of things to come and not a one season wonder.

Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (10-6) - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Miami finally grabs the receiver fans have been waiting for. Chris Olave made a huge impact on this Ohio State offense this year. He has good size to compete for pass downfield and has shown flashes of high-level route runner. He might need to bulk up a little bit to survive in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) - Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

The direction of this Eagles defense is in flux with Doug Pederson fired and Jim Schwartz taking a year away from football. There is no question that the pass defense needs a boost though. Andre Cisco is a centerfield safety with great ball skills. He had 12 interceptions in his first two seasons before slogging through an injury-riddled 2020. He would help Philly deal with the big plays that plagued the secondary all season long.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) - Daviyon Nixon, DL, Iowa

Carlos Dunlap is gone. Geno Atkins turns 33 in March. Cincinnati could use an infusion of talent along the defensive line. Daviyon Nixon flashed enough upside that the Bengals would be happy to land him in the second round. He moves incredibly well at 305 pounds, but there is room for improvement when it comes to his technique. If he can get that final layer of polish, he could be a force along the interior of the defense.

Carolina Panthers (5-11) - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Is Teddy Bridgewater the long-term answer at quarterback? It is unclear at this point. Matt Rhule would likely be excited to work with a polished passer like Kyle Trask. He has great accuracy and anticipation. However, he really lacks mobility and does not have the biggest arm. He could be a bit of a project behind Bridgewater.

Denver Broncos (6-10) - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

Alex Leatherwood has played every position along the offensive line, other than center, in his time at Alabama. In this scenario, I envision him potentially taking over at right tackle after not seeing Ja'Wuan James play much in the past two years. His ability to play left tackle is important too if Garrett Bolles regresses.

Detroit Lions (6-10) - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington

For a few years, Detroit has been searching for an edge rusher. Joe Tryon has above average play strength and a solid set of pass rushing moves. We didn't get to see him in 2020 because he opted out, but he has room for improvement and the size to play as a 4-3 end or a 3-4 outside linebacker.

New York Giants (6-10) - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami

The Giants will be disappointed to see Tryon off the board, but Quincy Roche is a nice consolation prize. He did not put up the same eye-popping numbers he did during his time at Temple, but his one year in Miami was productive. New York's defense made huge strides in 2020 under Patrick Graham, but needs some more pass rushing help to take the next step.

Cincinnati Bengals via San Francisco 49ers (6-10) - Alijah Vera-Tucker, G, USC

If the Bengals spent every pick in this draft on the offensive line, I don't think anyone would fault them. That's probably unnecessary, but investing another premium pick on an offensive lineman is smart roster building here. Alijah Vera-Tucker brings some experience at both guard and tackle. He is a developing player that should make Joe Burrow's life better when he returns from injury.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10) - Jevon Holland, DB, Oregon

Dallas' defense is headed for something of a major rebuild. With a ton of question marks in the secondary, finding a player who can play in multiple roles carries a lot of value. Jevon Holland is disruptive and can line up at either safety spot or play in the slot. The Cowboys just need to find talented players to turn this defense around.

Jacksonville Jaguars via Minnesota Vikings (1-15) - Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

Jacksonville is in desperate need of an upgrade at tight end. Brevin Jordan has not had the fanfare that Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth have, but he plays the position well. He does a lot of the little things right and would give Trevor Lawrence a strong target across the middle.

Detroit Lions via New England Patriots (7-9) - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

The backend of Detroit's defense needs a lot of work. Trevon Moehrig is a reliable safety option with plenty of range to make plays. He was one of the best players on a solid TCU defense. His biggest area for improvement is keeping proper positioning. Moehrig got burned deep a few times in 2020.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

The Chargers might not bring back Mike Williams. Even if they do, there is room for another playmaker on this squad. Kadarius Toney looked incredible as part of Florida's offensive resurgence this season. He is dynamic in the open field and great at making plays with the ball in his hands. Toney could be uber productive playing with Justin Herbert.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8) - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

Keep rebuilding this defense. The Raiders have swung and missed on a lot of corners in recent years, but Eric Stokes could help steady the unit a bit. He has impeccable speed and solid coverage skills. Stokes showed some signs of being a real difference maker with four interceptions in 2020. His stock could rise a lot if he posts a ridiculous time at the combine.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State

Marvin Wilson was a potential first-round selection a year ago, but did not have a great senior year after returning to Tallahassee. I think Wilson could bounce back with some better coaching. There was a lot of animosity at Florida State this offseason and it seemed like Wilson's heart was not in it this year. If he can reclaim his 2019 form, this would be a steal for a Cardinals team in need of some help along the defensive line.

Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

I have Travis Etienne ranked at No. 14 on my big board, so don't go thinking I hate Etienne. However, NFL teams are continuing to devalue this position to the point where only one running back was selected last year in the first round. This is a great fit for the Clemson running back, who would join an exciting offense. His big-play ability could easily see him go sooner than this.

Washington (7-9) - Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Assuming that Washington does opt for Mac Jones, they are going to need to give him some receivers other than Terry McLaurin to throw to. Sage Surratt sat out the 2020 season, but he was last seen torching secondaries in the ACC. He is a big-play threat with great size and ball skills.

Chicago Bears (8-8) - Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama

We won't get to see Landon Dickerson workout at the Senior Bowl or combine this year because he suffered a season-ending injury in the SEC title game. He made a brief cameo at the end of Alabama's championship win, but he might not be ready for the upcoming season. Once he is back to full health though, he could be a steady starter for the Bears. This offense would look a lot better with an improved line and some additional playmakers.

Tennessee Titans (11-5) - Jay Tufele, DL, USC

This mostly projecting how Jay Tufele could develop as a prospect. He flashed some interior pass rushing ability in his first two seasons before opting out of the 2020 season. The Titans will take pass rushing help however they can get it at this point.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

T.Y. Hilton had a strong second half and Michael Pittman Jr. showed flashes of his potential to be a No. 1 receiver, but Indy needs more receiving options. Parris Campbell has yet to make an impact and Zach Pascal is better off providing depth. Terrace Marshall got overshadowed by Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase last year, but he made some big plays for a much worse LSU offense this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

Pittsburgh's offensive line struggled a lot between injuries and poor play all season. Dillon Radunz is a bit of an unknown coming out of North Dakota State, but he has some great physical tools and dominated the FCS. He could compete for either tackle spot from Day 1.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

There is no question the Seahawks need an edge rusher, but Russell Wilson also needs time to make plays. Saturday's loss to the Rams should underline how much the offensive line needs an upgrade. Jalen Mayfield held down the right side of the line for Michigan. He should do the same thing for Seattle, replacing Brandon Shell.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Cade Mays, OT, Tennessee

Andrew Whitworth cannot play forever and Jared Goff is not mobile enough to compensate for a bad offensive line. Cade Mays, like his teammate Trey Smith, has featured mostly at guard, but has the size to play at tackle. He has played at every position at some point in his college career at Georgia and Tennessee. His versatility would be hugely valuable even if he does not start right away.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) - Jaylen Twyman, DL, Pittsburgh

Building depth along the front seven is pretty much the only clear need this team has, pending any losses in free agency. Jalen Twyman was a disruptive force in 2019 for Pittsburgh. He racked up 10.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in a dominant season. He will need to measure in well at the combine to answer some questions about his size, but he could provide some pass rushing depth right away.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

There is no question the Ravens need another receiver to add to this offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has the agility and route tree to fit well as a possession receiver in this offense. He can get open in small spaces and has shown the ability to stretch the field as well.

Cleveland Browns (11-5) - Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina

I'm not totally sure where Israel Mukuamu fits at the next level. He has played both safety and outside corner in his time at South Carolina. He is huge at 6'4" and shows flashes of being a lockdown corner. He is a step slow in the speed department, but his versatility would be extremely useful for a Browns secondary that has struggled to keep players healthy.

New Orleans Saints (12-4) - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

Ronadale Moore has looked like a human joystick when at full strength. That type of playmaking could be a huge boost to the Saints offense. It is not totally clear what this team will look like without Drew Brees, but New Orleans has needed a long-term solution across from Michael Thomas for a few years. Moore could be a top candidate if his medicals check out.

Buffalo Bills (13-3) - Chris Rumph II, EDGE, Duke

Buffalo's defense took a step back in 2020 after a dominant 2019 season. The Bills can look to reclaim their 2019 form with a couple of fresh faces in the front seven. Chris Rumph II had a great career with Duke, posting 14.5 sacks and 25 tackles for loss over his final two seasons.

Green Bay Packers (13-3) - Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Seth Williams' skill set is a bit more limited than some of the receivers that have gone before him, but what he does, he does very well. He has the size at 6'3" to make plays down the field in traffic. Most importantly, he has good hands, which is something Green Bay desperately needs. The Packers had one of the highest drop percentages in the league this year.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

Kansas City can stay close to home with this pick. Nick Bolton was a huge factor in Missouri's surprising season. He was one of the leaders of the Mizzou defense and made some impact plays with eight tackles for loss this season. Bolton would compete for a starting spot on a defense in need of some improvement in the linebacking corp.
https://aftermathsports.com/2021/01/12/2021-nfl-mock-draft-49ers-trade-up-for-fields-while-jones-lands-in-washington-after-cfp-final/

Drop Your Kicker Week 6: Hold Gabriel Davis, Add Duke Johnson

Welcome back to Drop Your Kicker, my weekly column where I use data to identify players who are rostered in a low percentage of leagues that can be added right now in deeper PPR formats before they cost you FAAB the following week.
Last week I recommended Gabriel Davis. John Brown was ruled out for week 5 and Gabriel Davis played every snap for the Bills. Davis turned 9 targets into 5 receptions for 58 yards. He also had an impressive touchdown that was called back due to an offensive penalty. He displayed some pretty amazing athleticism on the pay, leaping into the air to make the grab like he saw the golden snitch. Josh Allen likes to throw these kinds of DGAF balls all the time, and with Davis’s size and athleticism, he’s bound to catch a few of them this year. Davis now has either 50 yards or a touchdown in 4 straight weeks. After practicing in full on Thursday and Friday, John Brown was back to a limited status on the practice report from Saturday. That means John Brown is legitimately questionable again for a potential shoot out with the chiefs. I’m holding Gabriel Davis wherever I have him. If John Brown is ruled out again, I would definitely recommend starting Davis in week 6. Better days are coming.
I also want to talk a little bit about who I recommended picking up two weeks ago, Justin Jackson. For those who flexed him last week like i recommended in my column, he ended up with 14.4 PPR points for a solid RB23 finish on the week. Two weeks ago, hardly anyone thought Justin Jackson was worth an add at all. After Ekeler went down, people started adding him for modest bids in some leagues, and heavier bids in others, particularly in higher stakes formats. This week he was the number one add in 4for4 and Rotoworld’s waiver wire column for week 6. This kind of thing should be familiar to most of us who have been playing fantasy for years. Things can change on a dime, and we wanna be ready for that change.
Two weeks ago everyone thought they hit gold with Joshua Kelley. This week he’s been dropped to the waiver wire in many leagues. I’m still holding him where I have him, but he’s simply a part time player who is more of a hand cuff to Justin Jackson now in my opinion. Sometimes, we discount players unfairly because the hive mind is really excited about their main competition for work. And we did have some reasons to be excited about Joshua Kelley’s workload early in the season. It just didn’t work out for him so far. Sometimes rookie development takes a little time. Anyone who owned Miles Sanders last year can remember that sometimes, a rookie RB doesn’t hit right away. For now, Jackson is the better option. He was more elusive, and displayed the higher burst score that I mentioned in my column the last week in an actual NFL game.
One of the best fantasy tips I ever got was from Evan Silva of Establish The Run. From his time working at Rotoworld, Silva learned a lot about how to read blurbs from beat writers effectively. What Silva was right to point out, is that when beat writers project a certain amount of volume for a player, they’re just guessing, the same way any of the rest of the fantasy analysts are guessing as well. When a beat writer says a certain player was the only running back to get any practice time with the first team, that’s information we can use to inform our own projections. But when a beat reporter projects the RB snap percentage on a team any given week, it’s not data, it’s simply a projection from one person who happened to see a little more practice time than the rest of us. We should take note of these beat reporter projections, but not treat them like they’re an actual data point. Last week, one of the most upvoted posts on this sub was a link to a tweet from Daniel Popper, beat writer for the Chargers. He projected that Kelley would play 65% percent of the snaps, and Jackson would play 35%. Honestly, I think his projection was a reasonable assumption, although I would have guessed more like 60/40 in Kelley’s favor. Jackson played 40% percent of the snaps two weeks ago, to Kelley’s 57% in week 4. The problem was, Kelley wasn’t playing very well in week 5, leading Jackson to outproduce him on the field, and eventually out snap Kelley 59% to 35%. It turns out Jackson is probably the better player between the two. Which makes a lot of sense given that Jackson was listed as the number 2 RB before his injury in week 1, and he had an extremely productive game in relief of an Injured Melvin Gordon in week 13 vs the Steelers last season. If a running back is actually better than the starter in front of them, we can’t always trust that an NFL coach would agree with our assessment. Sometimes coaches play a worse talent, and there isn’t anything we can really do about that. In the Chargers case, they saw that Jackson was playing better, and they left him on the field late in the game for some key 3rd down conversions. He also got the first snap of the game, and 30 plus yard run during the first drive, which probably means the coaching staff already knew Jackson was the better back heading in to the week. Sometimes all we can really do is try and identify which backup RB is actually better than the starter, and hope the coaching staff agrees. Which leads us to my pick for week 6.
The big story in the NFL this week was of course the Le’veon Bell trade to the Chiefs. A lot of fantasy managers are tripping over themselves to trade for Bell, with the hope that he might take over as the featured back in Kansas City. I haven’t looked very deeply into this situation, so I don’t have any particular take on the KC backfield, but what I will say is that what we saw this week was that the fantasy community seems to think that an upgrade in a RB offensive situation can change their fantasy outlook dramatically. Bell will be expensive to acquire at this point though, so how do we use this idea of a talented running back suddenly being placed in a better coaching situation to our advantage?
My Drop Your Kicker player of the week 6 is… Duke Johnson. I can’t overstate just how bad of a coach and GM Bill O’Brien was. And one of the most boneheaded moves he ever made as GM was to trade Deandre Hopkins for David Johnson after we already saw that Johnson was washed. I have fond memories of David Johnson. In his prime he was one of the most explosive players in the game. But that was when they used him creatively in the passing game in Bruce Arian’s offense, and when Johnson still had some burst to his legs. O’Brien proceeded to run David Johnson up the middle into a bad offensive line, hoping against hope to “establish the run.” It cost him his job.
Last week, we saw some encouraging signs from interim head coach of the Houston Texans, Romeo Crennel. Graham Barfield shared on Twitter that in week 5 “Watson set season-highs in play-action rate (29%) and air yards per attempt (11.1). O'Brien was using play-action 16% of the time (third-lowest).” Play action is an incredibly effective tool that a lot of old school coaches haven’t adapted to using effectively yet. Anyone who is competitive at anything can intuitively see why that would be the case. When the defense has to pick whether you are going to run or pass on a given play, they might make the wrong decision and sell out to stop the run, leaving someone open in the passing game, sometimes even the RB themselves. Warren Sharp has been sharing data for years that supports the effectiveness of the play action pass. Watson was also throwing the ball downfield more in week 5, which is going to lead to a more effective offense overall, which means more scoring attempts for the RBs as well. The Texans scored 30 points in week 5, their best offensive output of the season by 7 points, also leading to their first win of the season. Quarterbacks matter more than any other player on the field. We know this because when a good quarterback gets ruled out, Vegas changes the betting lines by a large margin. When really good RB or WR is ruled out, betting lines barely move. But a good quarterback can definitely be held back by a bad coach. Aaron Rodgers can certainly attest to this.
So now we know we have an excellent quarterback with an upgraded coaching staff, and David Johnson at RB, who hasn’t been particularly effective. So why do I think Duke Johnson has a shot to do any better? In 2020, Duke Johnson is just a much better player than David Johnson, and I don’t even think it’s a hot take to say so. Duke Johnson already broke out with a 1,000 yard season in 2017, but he’s been buried on depth charts with bad coaches ever since. In 2018, he had to deal with Greg Williams, as the Cleveland Browns proceeded to squander all the talent and draft picks that analytics enthusiast Sashi Brown had acquired during his four year tenure as executive vice president of the Cleveland Browns. Then in 2019, Duke Johnson had to play under Bill O’Brien. Even in that environment, he scored over 10 PPR points in 7 out of 16 games in the 2019 season, including games where he scored 20, 19.1, and 16.7 PPR points.
It could simply be that Duke never matched his 2017 breakout season because of Bill O’Brien. The new coaching staff has already said that they know how good Duke Johnson is and he might start to get used more in both the run game and the pass game, as early as this week. Now, this might simply be coach speak. But I want Duke Johnson on my bench just in case. I’ve literally been waiting years for a coach to take him seriously. In the 2018 and 2019 seasons Duke Johnson had 124 targets, good for the 12th most RB targets in the league during that time frame. But those were also his two lowest target totals of his career. He had 74 targets in 2015, another 74 targets in 2016, and finally 93 targets in 2017, which he turned into 74 catches for 693 yards. Then he went to coaching hell.
Duke’s receiving prowess matters. But he can run the ball too. Many fantasy analysts have long predicted that if given the opportunity he could be a 3 down back. In five NFL seasons, he’s played all 16 games every single year. He’s proven to be durable in a way that other pass catching backs haven’t. This off-season, JJ Zachariason did a study on how to find breakout RBs. What he found was that you want to target backfields where there wasn’t a RB picked in the first couple rounds. David Johnson’s 3rd-4th round ADP fits the bill here. You also want them to catch passes. We know Duke can catch passes. You also want them to be in a good offense. The arrow is pointing up on the Houston offense with the departure of Bill O’Brien.
The most interesting aspect of Zachariason’s study was that breakout RBs came from all ages, it wasn’t just rookies. I think this data conflicts with how most fantasy managers play the game. In a week where a lot of people are adding La’Mical Perine because he’s a rookie unknown, I’m instead adding Duke Johnson, because he’s a better player with a better quarterback and coach. Duke is also a great pass catcher. He’s 27 years old, which shouldn’t be a knock on him. Duke already broke out in 2017, and it’s easy to explain why he hasn’t been fantasy relevant in recent years.
Finding a breakout RB is hard, but we should focus on having a good process. If they don’t breakout we can simply move on. While a lot of people, including myself, drafted Duke this year and then dropped him in the early waiver weeks, it’s time to pick him back up. He’s currently rostered in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues. If Duke is not available in your league, I don’t totally hate adding T.J. Yeldon. u/maskdmirag reached out to me in a comment in last week’s Drop Your Kicker column with some reasoning for why Yeldon should be this week’s drop your kicker add, and I think it’s awesome that other people are grinding the Athletic news articles to find undiscovered gems. I’m actually starting Yeldon in a deep league where I had a lot of RBs on bye, in part due to u/maskdmirag advice. I had been considering Yeldon for the column anyway, and his advice nudged me into starting him when Duke wasn’t available. If you all have ideas for next week’s drop your kicker column feel free to continue to comment on this thread throughout the week. I’d love to hear more ideas. I usually don’t decide who I’m going to write up in this column until late Friday night or early Saturday morning. You can also find me on Twitter
For what it’s worth, JJ Zachariason used his process that I outlined above to name Duke Johnson as a potential breakout this off season. The process matters more than the result, and I think the process has never been better for picking Duke Johnson. He’s already eating into David Johnson’s passing down snaps, and their next two matchups suggest that the Texans will be in passing situations more often. Hayden Winks shared on Twitter that when the Texans are leading, David Johnson has a 41% touch share, but when the Texans are trailing, that number dips to 28%. The Texans might be trailing a lot in the next two weeks. In week 6 they have the undefeated Titans, who have a really strong offense, and then in week 7 they face the Packers who have been torching opposing defenses weekly. In Justin Edwards’s weekly Offensive line matchups column he lists the Texans as having a 25th ranked offensive line, and the Titans rank at 26 in fantasy points allowed to RBs. If ever there was a time for Duke Johnson to break out for good, it would be during this two week stretch. If he doesn’t flash by the Texans bye in week 8, you can certainly drop him.
The last thing I want to share is a quick highlight reel of just how good Duke Johnson was in 2017, since a lot of people probably forgot or weren’t playing fantasy yet. I’m not a film grinder, nor am I an expert in evaluating RB play on film, but sometimes you see a guy who so easily passes the eyeball test, it can't be ignored. Remember, he hasn’t missed a game due to injury in his entire career, and he’s probably in better shape now at 27 years old than he was in 2017. I recommend watching the highlight reel with the sound way up. Enjoy the clip! If you want a more recent highlight of how elusive Duke Johnson looks, check this clip out from out from u/invisible_r3, shared in the thread below.
For those who are curious about why I named the column "Drop Your Kicker" here's the explanation:
It’s more of a catch phrase that’s meant to say, "drop your lowest upside player." However, in Yahoo leagues that have the game time to Tuesday waiver settings, you can actually drop your kicker, leave a guy you want to speculate with on your bench, and then drop them after they play their game if they don’t work out. If not playing in those formats, my recommendation is to simply drop your lowest upside player for the recommended add, which is Duke Johnson this week.
TLDR: Add Duke Johnson. I wouldn't start Duke this week. You should still start a kicker.

The Rookie Report: Week 16 Starts & Sits

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at fantasy championship week. If you’ve survived this far, congratulations! That’s an accomplishment in and of itself, but I’m sure you’re not satisfied with second place. For me, the key to championship lineups is to not get too cute. If you roll the dice on a sleeper this week and it blows up in your face in a close loss, are you going to be able to live with that for the whole offseason? If not, you probably shouldn’t roll those dice. That’s not to say that a sleeper can’t help you win a championship. Last year in week 16 it was guys like Daniel Jones, Tajae Sharpe, Steven Sims, DeAndre Washington and Kaden Smith who put up big scores (mostly from people’s benches). There certainly will be some similar performances this year…but the chances of picking them ahead of time is slim to none. Play the reliable starters over the dart throw guys unless you’re comfortable with the consequences. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys I wouldn’t consider outside of DFS and the deepest of leagues. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies for the all-important week 16…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Herbert has gotten himself back on track in the last couple weeks after a rough day against the Patriots, and this week he catches a Denver defense that is without most of the top of its CB depth chart. The Broncos have coughed up 280+ passing yards and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in each of the two games they’ve played with their corners sidelined, and I’d expect Herbert to extend that to three in a row. Herbert will be without Hunter Henry in this game, and possibly Keenan Allen who is a game-time decision. If Allen misses this one, I’d downgrade Herbert at least a little bit, but they still have enough other weapons that he should still be a really safe low-end QB1 this week against the Broncos’ depleted secondary.

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 16:@DAL): Hurts has exploded onto the scene in the last two weeks and made the Eagles look like a competent offense. While the fantasy production from his first start came mostly from his legs, he managed to add the passing element to that in game number 2. Hurts threw for 338 yards & 3 touchdowns, and ran for 63 yards and a score as well, showcasing his tantalizing ceiling. That ceiling should be in play again this week against the Cowboys. The passing yardage against Dallas has been limited due to teams being in positive game script. Only 3 teams in their last 11 games have thrown for 225+ yards against them, but 8 of 11 threw for multiple touchdowns. Dallas has also been shredded on the ground by the two true running QBs they’ve faced this season. They allowed 74 rushing yards to Kyler Murray and 94 to Lamar Jackson. Hurts should be in line for another day of strong rushing production and efficient passing, but know that there is always some risk when we only have a 2-game sample size to go off of. I’ve seen a lot of people debating between Herbert and Hurts this week for their championship. Herbert has the safer floor, but Hurts has the higher ceiling. Since both play in the late window on Sunday, I would suggest waiting until closer to kickoff to make that call. By then you should know if you need to swing for the fences with Hurts, or take the safer points with Herbert.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 16:@PIT): Taylor has been on an absolute tear over the past 3 weeks with 4 total touchdowns and an average of just over 130 scrimmage yards per game, but he gets a rough matchup for championship week. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points per game, but they’ve had a couple of their more dicey performances in the last few weeks, giving up 12.8 points to JD McKissic in week 13 and 22.2 to Gio Bernard last week. Taylor seems to have found his groove in recent weeks, and I would count on his more consistent usage and improved recent play to push him to a solid fantasy day once again even in this tough matchup. I would view him as more of an RB2 than RB1 this week, but he should be in your lineup unless you have some studs ahead of him.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Dobbins found the end zone for the 4th straight week last Sunday, and he should be in a great position to do it again during championship week. The Ravens have phased Mark Ingram completely out of the run game, and Dobbins has stepped in as the clear lead guy in the committee. He’s now carried the ball more than 10 times in 6 of his last 7 games, and this week faces a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game. New York has given up at least 11 fantasy points to an opposing running back in all but two games this season. Dobbins should be a safe bet to finish in the top-20 backs this week.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 16:@NO): Jefferson gets what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Saints, but it’s one he should be able to thrive against. The Saints rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but they play man-to-man defense more often than most defenses and Jefferson has been exceptional against man-to-man. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards per route run against man-to-man defense, and no other player in the league averages even 4 yards. Add in that Jefferson has seen at least 8 targets in 5 of his last 6 games (average of 9.8 per game in that span), and he should be a safe WR1 or 2 this week in most formats despite a tougher matchup.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 16:@ARI): Don’t overthink it with Aiyuk. He’s gotten into the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, and had at least 5 catches and 73 yards in each of the last 6. He should be a sure bet for 10+ targets again, even with the return of George Kittle and the switch to CJ Beathard at QB. Aiyuk and Beathard haven’t had the best connection thus far, with Aiyuk catching just 3 of 8 targets from CJ for 49 yards on the season, but with a full week of practice together I expect they’ll have things more ironed out this week. Arizona isn’t a defense to avoid, allowing the 14th-most WR points per game, so as long as the targets are there Aiyuk should be a safe WR2 for the finals.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 16:@LV): Tua managed to post a strong fantasy game last week despite the absence of most of his weapons thanks to two rushing touchdowns. He may get some of those weapons back this week (Mike Gesicki & DeVante Parker are practicing in a limited capacity), but we know that the backfield is getting healthier and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida returned last week, running for over 200 yards against New England, and Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID list this week. The Dolphins would be wise to ride their run game as far as it will take them this week. The pass defense is bad for the Raiders also, but I would expect limited passing volume. Tua should be a mid-QB2 this week unless they fall behind and he’s forced to throw a bunch.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Robinson has been as consistent a fantasy producer as there has been this season, but this week could be different. Many teams that are still alive and kicking owe their success to Robinson, but he’s battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this weekend against the Bears. Robinson typically is safe for double-digit points, but even if he plays this week I’d be surprised if the Jaguars give him his typical workload in a game that really doesn’t mean all that much for them. The Bears rank 5th in run defense DVOA, but have been effectively run on in recent weeks. Robinson would be a reasonable floor flex play if he does give it a go, but he won’t be nearly as safe a play as he usually is. Obviously keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Robinson, and have other options ready in case he doesn’t play.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Week 16 should be an interesting one for the Detroit Lions. Due to COVID exposure they’re going to be without their interim head coach, all of their coordinators, and a few position coaches as well. It remains to be seen what kind of impact that’s going to have on their game plan for this week, but if they know what they’re doing they’ll get the ball into Swift’s hands early and often. The Bucs have been one of the toughest matchups for running backs, allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game and ranking 1st in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most running back receptions in the league and the 10th-most running back receiving yards. It’s unlikely that Swift will put up a crooked rushing total in this tough matchup, but receiving work can get him to a productive day in PPR and half PPR formats. Swift should be a solid flex play in the fantasy finals.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Car.): Keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Gibson for this week. There is still no guarantee that he will play this week, but if he does suit up he should be in line for an RB2 day. The Panthers rank 22nd in run defense DVOA and allow the 8th-most running back points per game. Before going down with injury, Gibson had scored 8 touchdowns in his last 5 healthy games, and Washington should give him a healthy workload again. If it sounds like Gibson will be close to 100%, he should probably be in your lineup unless you have studs ahead of him.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 16:@NE): After being benched for an early fumble in week 13, the Bills haven’t been shy about going back to Moss in the games that followed. The 13 carries Moss handled in each game is just one off of his season-high, and last week he matched his best yardage day with 81 yards on the ground. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allowed over 208 rushing yards to Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida last weekend, and 171 to Cam Akers the week before. The Bills’ best game plan would be to pound the ball on the ground. There is a solid chance that Moss approaches the yardage total he posted last week again, but you never know if the touchdowns will come with the yards. Josh Allen is as likely as any Buffalo running back to get the goal line carries. Moss is a flex play with some upside this week if he manages to find paydirt.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 16:@LV): Ahmed came back from injury in a big way last week, shredding the Patriots to the tune of 122 yards and a TD. It could have been an even bigger day if he hadn’t had another TD overturned on replay review. That performance came with Myles Gaskin still sidelined on the COVID list, and Gaskin is set to return this week. That throws a bit of a wrench into Ahmed’s value for this week. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, so there is an opportunity for another big game if his role is similar, but I would expect Gaskin to take a big chunk of that workload, and Matt Breida (12 carries for 86 yards last week) won’t be completely phased out either. I’d expect Ahmed to be in the ballpark of a dozen touches in this one, and that will make him a decent flex play in this plus matchup.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 16:@HOU): Higgins has had a hard time putting up fantasy production since Joe Burrow went down for the season, but if there was a week to be hopeful for a big day for him, this is the one. The Texans have played without Bradley Roby in 5 games this season, and have allowed 21+ fantasy points to one opposing receiver in each of those games. If any Bengal is going to approach that mark it’s Higgins. Ryan Finley earned another start this week with his performance against the Steelers last week, and he knew to feed the ball to Higgins. Finley threw just 13 passes in that game, but 6 of them were directed at Higgins. I’d expect Cincy to try to keep the passing volume low if they can again, but I also expect Higgins to post his best receiving day since Burrow got hurt. He’s an interesting WR3 this week.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Claypool’s fantasy performance has taken a hit with the Steelers falling apart as a whole over the past 3 weeks, but he did get back to 8 targets Monday night for the first time since week 12. Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve also allowed three 100-yard receiving games in the last 3 weeks. Claypool still has some boom-or-bust element to his fantasy outlook, but with Eric Ebron likely to be sidelined again Claypool should be a solid bet for another 8+ targets. He’s in play as a WR3 option if you need someone with some extra upside.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): By this point you pretty much know what to expect for Lamb without Dak Prescott around. Lamb has had 4+ receptions in 6 of his last 7 games, but yardage has been tough to come by. Last week was just the second time in that span that he’s topped 50 yards. The Eagles are a middle of the pack defense against receivers, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve allowed 5 double-digit fantasy days to wideouts in their past 3 games. Lamb should be safe for 7 or 8 points, but counting on much more has proven to be dangerous in the last couple months. He’s a flex option for deeper leagues where a safe floor may be better for your lineup than your other options.

WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 16:@LV): Bowden has been just what the doctor ordered for a Dolphins team that has been beyond beat up at the skill positions over the last few weeks. He’s been the one constant in the lineup over the last 3 games, and as a result he’s totaled 17 catches for 174 yards on 20 targets in that span, and tallied 22 rushing yards to boot. That’s not league-winning production, but he’s been valuable for deeper PPR leagues. The Dolphins are getting healthier, but Bowden should remain involved against a defense that has struggled against slot receivers. Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen and Scotty Miller each reached 19 points against Vegas from the slot since the Raiders’ bye week. Bowden should be good for in the ballpark of 5-60 this week in a good matchup, even if Gesicki and DeVante Parker return.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has been playing coy about who will start at QB this week against the Bears, and it matters for Shenault. If the starter is Gardner Minshew again, Viska has some upside for the deepest leagues after being targeted 17 times in the last two games with Minshew under center. He was targeted just 7 times in the two weeks prior with Glennon. The Bears allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 7 double-digit fantasy days to opposing receivers in their last 5 games, and they’re missing corners Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. Steer clear if Glennon starts, but if it’s the mustachioed one under center Shenault is a WR4/flex option in deep leagues this week.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 16:@JAX): Kmet has taken over as the starting tight end in Chicago, playing every single offensive snap in week 15, but his fantasy production hasn’t been consistent since taking over the starting role. Kmet has totaled just 105 receiving yards in the last 5 games, all games in which he’s played 70% or more of the snaps. He does have a better than average chance to find the end zone this week. Jacksonville allows the 7th-most TE points per game and has let a tight end score a touchdown in 4 of their past 5 games. The tight end pool is pretty thin, so if you’re scrambling for a Hunter Henry replacement you could probably do worse than Kmet. Just know that the floor is pretty low here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Perine should return this week, but after being off for a few weeks he might not jump right back into a full-time role. Frank Gore and Ty Johnson have played fairly well in his absence. The Jets should still get Perine a significant share of the work this week, but they’re a 9.5-point underdog and the Browns allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a spot to view the rookie as a sneaky fantasy play.

RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 16:@WAS): Smith has seen an uptick in his usage in recent weeks, taking some of the passing down work from Mike Davis while we all wait to see if Christian McCaffrey ever comes back. Smith played 35% of the offensive snaps last week. CMC will be out again this week, so I’d expect Smith to be similarly involved against the Football Team, but this isn’t a great week to count on that sort of usage resulting in a productive fantasy day. Washington has allowed the 4th-fewest running back receptions and 3rd-fewest receiving yards. The upside isn’t all that high in this one.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 16:@DET): With Ronald Jones out, it was Leonard Fournette who handled the bulk of Tampa’s backfield work, handling nearly 70% of the offensive snaps. Vaughn and LeSean McCoy split the rest of the work. Jones will be out again this week, but I’d expect Fournette to get the bulk of the work again. There may be a bit more garbage time this week. Tampa was already favored by 9.5 points before it was announced that much of Detroit’s coaching staff would be out due to COVID exposure. That potential garbage time upside isn’t worth risking a possible goose egg in your championship lineup. Vaughn has reached 1 full fantasy point in just 2 of the 5 games where he got at least 1 touch.

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 16:@GB): Evans made a splash in his first extended action of the season last Sunday, putting up 57 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but much of that came with the Titans up multiple scores. This week’s game should be a much tougher one in Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog. I don’t expect there to be much garbage time for Evans to do work, and would avoid him in any lineups this week.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 16:@JAX): Mooney has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, but his volume has been limited with the Bears playing with leads in the last two weeks. He’s averaged 3.5 targets per game in those two contests, and had only seen fewer than 4 targets once in the 10 games prior. This week the Bears are a heavy favorite in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that has zero reason to win this game. Jacksonville is a bad pass defense, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-most points per game to wide receivers, but the Bears should have limited passing volume. If you play Mooney anywhere, you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. He hasn’t reached 70 scrimmage yards in any game this year. I think Jimmy Graham or Cole Kmet are more likely to be the recipients of any ancillary passing scores this week.

WRs Jalen Reagor & Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 16:@DAL): Reagor and Watkins both set season-highs for targets last week against the Cardinals, but neither player topped 50 yards and I wouldn’t expect them to repeat their target totals this week. I guarantee the Eagles don’t want Jalen Hurts throwing the ball 44 times if he doesn’t have to, and the Cowboys have allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Cowboys also allow the 5th-most WR points per game, but Reagor should see a few less targets this week and hasn’t posted a double-digit fantasy day all season. Watkins’ 3-40-1 line last week was the first real production he’s posted all year. Reagor may be worth a dart throw in a DFS tournament, but neither player should be trusted for your fantasy championship.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 16:@PIT): Pittman has weekly upside, but this week he faces off with a Steelers’ defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game, and he’s seen his targets decline in recent weeks. He hasn’t caught for 50+ yards in any of the last 4 games, and has seen just 13 total targets in the last 3. You can’t count on a big uptick this week in your league finals.

WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 16:@LAC): Jeudy and Hamler are both capable of solid days here, but we’ve seen enough overall struggling from Drew Lock and the Broncos’ passing game in recent weeks to steer clear of both this week in your lineups. Jeudy has caught just 4 of his 13 targets since Lock’s return from the COVID list 3 weeks ago, and Hamler hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any of those 3 games either. The Chargers allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game. If there is a blowup game from one of these two, let it happen from your bench.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 16:@NE): With John Brown set to return this week, Davis will return to being a part time player that shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game where Brown was healthy once all year. Even if Brown sits, Davis would be a dicey option in a matchup where the Bills would be wise to run more than throw. The Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, but they won’t lack for cornerback talent, and Davis has been held to fewer than 20 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks. He’s been able to find the end zone in 3 of his last 4 games, but you’d be praying for another TD if you play him anywhere this week.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Ruggs is practicing this week and may be activated from the COVID list ahead of this game, but he’ll be impossible to trust in the fantasy finals. Ruggs did have two of his 3 best receiving yardage games of the season in the 3 weeks before being placed on the list, so he was trending in the right direction, but he’s topped 60 yards just twice all year and scored just 2 TDs on the year. Leave him sidelined against the defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 16:@NYJ): DPJ has now topped 50 receiving yards in each of the 4 games where he’s played 50% or more of the offensive snaps, and this week the Browns face off with a Jets’ defense that is solid against the run but is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Jets are 29th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Peoples-Jones still hasn’t caught more than 3 passes in any game this season, so counting on him in the fantasy finals is a risky proposition. He has nice upside for DFS tournaments though and a reasonable price tag of just $3,700 on DraftKings.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Mims was quiet in week 15 as the Jets very unexpectedly played from ahead and were able to lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this week. The Browns have been in a groove on offense of late, and the Jets should go back to their usual hapless ways. That means they’ll be throwing a lot. The Browns have been a very vulnerable pass defense, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10th-most WR points per game. They got back their top corner Denzel Ward from injury last week, and he should be shadowing Breshad Perriman in this game. That could open things up for Mims to have a nice day. There is still a low floor here. Sam Darnold doesn’t take a lot of deep shots and he typically leans on Jamison Crowder as his first option, but Mims’ downfield skill gives him more upside if he does see a few longer targets come his way. He costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and 70+ yards and a score isn’t a far-fetched stat line for the rookie.

WRs Marquez Callaway & Juwan Johnson, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): The Saints will have to throw to someone other than Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders this Friday, and with Michael Thomas on IR and Tre’Quan Smith ruled out for week 16, Callaway and Johnson are the next men up. Callaway had a couple notable weeks earlier this season when Thomas was out, including an 8-75 line on 10 targets against the Panthers in week 7. He’s been on IR himself the past few weeks, but is set to return Friday. Johnson was the guy who served as the WR2 last week when Smith left with injury. He played 76% of the offensive snaps, but caught zero of his 4 targets. The Vikings do allow the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so there is upside to any receiver who sees targets in this one. After Sanders, I think Callaway is the most likely to have a useful fantasy game, and he costs just $200 on DraftKings for the Showdown slate for the game. Johnson is a little pricier at $2,200. I wouldn’t consider either for your finals though.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 16:@NYJ): Bryant doesn’t have huge upside this week, but he gets a great matchup. Bryant hasn’t seen more than 2 targets in any game that Austin Hooper was active for this season, but the Jets have given up 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last 6 games, and plenty of yards to go along with them. Austin Hooper is the better play, but Bryant is worth a dart throw as a cheap option if you play the showdown format for this game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you bring home the league crown. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Christmas and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 3 more Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I will be back next week for those of you with week 17 title games or who will still be playing DFS. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com

Tracking 13-Point Teasers for the 2020 NFL Season (Part VIII)

Tracking 13-Point Teasers for the 2020 NFL Season (Part IV)

How rookie Andrew Thomas has improved and 9 other Giants notes - The Athletic

The Giants are riding a four-game winning streak into Sunday’s matchup with the Cardinals. Here are 10 thoughts on the surging Giants as they try to maintain their spot atop the NFC East:
1. It would be tidier to believe that left tackle Andrew Thomas’ early struggles were due to drastic technique changes imposed by former Giants offensive line coach Marc Colombo, and that the rookie’s recent improvement is simply the result of undoing those bad habits. But the reality is more subtle.
“Obviously, not having a preseason, not having OTAs and things like that had an effect,” Thomas said. “Playing my first couple games, it took a minute to grasp. I’m still getting better, I’m still working, trying to fix some things. I think it just takes times and repetition to get better.”
Thomas said he hasn’t made any drastic changes to his technique in the three weeks since Dave DeGuglielmo replaced Colombo. But getting comfortable facing NFL pass rushers simply took time.
Thomas said things started to click in the Giants’ loss to the Buccaneers in Week 8. Thomas rebounded in that matchup against Tampa Bay’s Jason Pierre-Paul after a dreadful showing the previous week against the Eagles.
That was the start of a turnaround for the No. 4 pick in the draft, as Thomas hasn’t allowed a single pressure in the past two games, according to Pro Football Focus. He allowed 5.1 pressures per game before the matchup with the Bucs.
“I see his level of play improving,” coach Joe Judge said. “But that’s natural for any rookie through the course of the season and just getting more and more experience, especially with the way he had to start this season. Look, this guy came in baptized by fire. He saw some of the top rushers in the world out of the gate.”
Thomas provided insight into the technique adjustments he’s had to make in the NFL after three successful seasons at Georgia. In college, he always set in a 45-degree angle in pass protection. Setting on that angle leaves a tackle susceptible to inside moves by edge rushers, but Thomas said he typically had a guard sliding in his direction to help inside.
But in the NFL, Thomas has been asked to take a more vertical set, which keeps him square to the line longer and is better for dealing with stunts. But it’s also more challenging to master, and it can lead to giving up inside moves, struggling with bull rushes and timing issues with his punch if not executed properly. (Here’s a great breakdown of pass sets from former Giants offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz.)
“I would say a little bit different as far as my hand placement,” Thomas said of technique changes from college. “That’s been something that I have been working on. And set-wise, at Georgia, I was always on a straight and hard 45 (degree) angle. Recently, I’ve been working a little bit more vertical to an angle set just depending on the alignment of pressures.”
Thomas’ biggest struggle early in the season was getting beaten on inside moves. He was oversetting because he was concerned the rusher would get around him to the edge.
“I would overset a lot of times and put myself in a bad position,” Thomas said. “You have to trail your defender, trust your athleticism to push a guy around the pocket so you don’t give up the inside.”
The Giants knew Thomas was capable of performing like this when they took him with the fourth pick in the draft. It took some time, but his play is starting to validate the team’s faith.
2. All signs are pointing toward quarterback Daniel Jones starting Sunday’s game after missing last week’s win over the Seahawks with a hamstring injury. Judge is planning to make a decision after watching Jones in Friday’s practice, but the quarterback has made steady progress.
Jones moved well during the portion of Thursday’s practice that was open to reporters and he was listed as a limited participant, which indicates he split first-team reps with backup Colt McCoy. Judge said Wednesday that he was “optimistic” that Jones would play and the quarterback’s desire to get back on the field is unquestioned.
The only reason Jones would be held out is if Judge doesn’t believe he can move well enough to protect himself. That’s why another practice on Friday will be important for Judge to gather more information on Jones’ progress.
The Giants want Jones back in the lineup because he gives them a better chance to win than McCoy, whose clear limitations were on display in the 17-12 win over Seattle. The other benefit of getting Jones back on the field is the organization will have an opportunity to evaluate the second-year pro in a playoff race. It will be revealing to see how Jones, who was playing better before his injury, responds to the bright lights and higher stakes down the stretch.
3. Leonard Williams is understandably drawing a ton of the attention with 8.5 sacks, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL. But teammates and coaches have made a point of giving recognition to one of Williams’ colleagues on the defensive line.
“I know Leonard’s disruptive, but I think Dalvin (Tomlinson) is having as good of a year as anybody on our defense,” safety Logan Ryan said. “He’s the nose guard getting double-teamed every play, but he’s taking up two blocks, causing disruption, getting interior push so (Buccaneers quarterback) Tom Brady and these quarterbacks can’t step up against us. He might not get credited with a sack every game, but he’s just as important.”
Tomlinson, who has 1.5 sacks, isn’t generating any Pro Bowl buzz. But he’s been typically reliable — he’s started all 60 games of his career — and is a big reason the Giants have one of the best run defenses in the league.
“Where that D-line is going right as they go through this process is a direct correlation to his leadership and what he does on that field, regardless of what statistics or what have you,” defensive coordinator Patrick Graham said.
Graham, who was Tomlinson’s position coach with the Giants in 2017, raved about his pupil’s maturation. Tomlinson was named the Giants’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee on Thursday for his work in the community.
A homegrown player with exemplary character should be a no-brainer to sign long-term. But with Williams and Tomlinson set to become free agents after the season, the Giants have to decide if it’s worth making two significant investments on the defensive line. It seems like they have no choice considering how important Williams and Tomlinson have been to the defense’s success.
4. How dominant has the Giants defense been recently? They have allowed just six defensive touchdowns during their four-game winning streak.
The Giants are allowing 22.1 points per game this season, which ranks ninth best in the NFL. They are tied for eighth in sacks despite a core of edge rushers currently comprised of journeyman Jabaal Sheard, sixth-round pick Cam Brown, seventh-round pick Carter Coughlin and undrafted rookie Niko Lalos. The Giants’ plus-8 turnover ratio over the past four weeks is the best in the NFL.
5. Rookie safety Xavier McKinney has been eased into the lineup in the past two weeks after missing the first 10 games with a broken foot. The second-round pick played five defensive snaps in his debut against the Bengals in Week 12 and six snaps against the Seahawks.
Expect McKinney’s role to increase gradually, with an opportunity for more snaps on Sunday, especially as a spy on Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
“I expect his role to keep increasing and I do expect his play to keep improving because he’s going to be working with the team out there,” Judge said.
6. It’s easy to make comparisons between Murray and Seattle’s Russell Wilson since they’re both undersized quarterbacks with strong arms. But they have very different styles of play, which the Giants have emphasized throughout the week.
“Not that Russell isn’t fast, but this guy Murray is true speed,” Graham said. “When I’m talking to the players, true speed. Not fast, not quick — we’re dealing with true speed. Any mistake, it can be a touchdown at any given moment.”
Murray has 665 yards and six touchdowns on the ground (Wilson has 424 yards and one touchdown rushing). There are some general principles that will carry over from last week, such as maintaining discipline in pass rush lanes.
But Arizona’s scheme is much different than Seattle’s. The Seahawks have a greater emphasis on downfield throws, although Murray has the third-best passer rating in the league on throws over 20 yards (Jones is first). Murray hasn’t played as well since suffering a shoulder injury in Week 11.
Like Seattle, the Cardinals have a marquee No. 1 receiver. DeAndre Hopkins has 85 catches for 1,019 yards and five touchdowns and is far more polished than Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf. It will be another tough matchup for Giants cornerback James Bradberry, who has been up to the task all season.
Coach Kliff Kingsbury brought the Air Raid offense with him from college. That means a lot of up-tempo play that stresses defenses since it limits substitutions, which will make it more difficult for Graham to get different types of packages onto the field. There are also a lot of horizontal passing concepts, so cornerbacks need to be sound tacklers to limit the yardage on wide receiver screens.
The Cardinals aren’t as pass-happy as college spread offenses. In addition to Murray’s rushing threat, Kenyan Drake is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has eight rushing touchdowns, and No. 2 back Chase Edmonds, who had three touchdowns against the Giants last season, is averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
7. The Giants will see some familiar faces on Sunday. Former Giants Markus Golden, Devon Kennard and Justin Pugh will make their return to MetLife Stadium as visitors.
The Giants dealt Golden to Arizona in exchange for a sixth-round pick at this season’s trade deadline. Golden had 10 sacks last season for the Giants but was buried by the new coaching staff, playing just 36 percent of the snaps in seven games.
The Cardinals had a need for an edge rusher after Chandler Jones suffered a torn biceps in Week 5, and Golden has instantly claimed a significant role. He’s playing 73 percent of the snaps and his 20 pressures in five games rank second on the team for the season.
Kennard was a solid player for four seasons after being selected by the Giants in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. The Giants let Kennard walk in free agency in 2018 and he signed a three-year, $17.25 million contract with the Lions (the Giants instead signed Kareem Martin to a three-year, $15 million contract).
Kennard was a solid player for the Lions, recording seven sacks in each of his two seasons in Detroit while serving as a captain, but he was a surprise cap casualty in the offseason. The 29-year-old landed in Arizona on a three-year, $20 million contract. He has two sacks in more of a reserve role this season.
Like Kennard, Pugh was a Jerry Reese draft pick who wasn’t retained in free agency after Dave Gettleman took over as general manager in 2018. Pugh signed a five-year, $44.8 million contract with the Cardinals and his injury history followed him to Arizona, as he was limited to seven games in 2018. But Pugh has started 28 straight games and his play has been similar to that during his time in New York: solid but unspectacular.
8. Former Giants coach Ray Perkins died Wednesday. The 79-year-old Perkins led the Giants out of a dark period in the franchise’s history. He had a 23-34 record from 1979-82, leading the Giants to the playoffs in 1981 to end an 18-year postseason drought.
Perkins left the Giants after the strike-shortened 1982 season to take the head coaching job at his alma mater, Alabama. He was succeeded by his defensive coordinator, Bill Parcells, who led the Giants to two Super Bowl titles.
Judge, who was an assistant at Alabama from 2009-11, had a few interactions with Perkins. Judge recalled advice Perkins shared during a conversation they had in the spring of 2012.
“He spent a lot of time with me that day, actually talking about being a young coach and really working with players and developing the players,” Judge said. “The development of the players is what he really hammered me with, and that really came after a spring practice and watching a lot of young guys out there trying to plug guys around and find the right spots for them. He was just sharing some wisdom along, ‘Hey listen, give everybody an opportunity to improve and don’t make your mind up too early from what you think someone can do.’”
It’s clear that the advice stuck with Judge. Players such as cornerback Isaac Yiadom and safety Julian Love were benched early in the season, but injuries forced them back into the lineup and they’ve developed into serviceable defensive pieces.
Judge’s reverence for the Giants’ history is evident. One nod to the franchise’s past that Judge has incorporated is having the team’s practice players of the week wear the jersey of a Ring of Honor member the week after a win. So there have been jerseys bearing the names of Frank Gifford (McCoy) and Y.A. Tittle (Clayton Thorson) on the practice field in recent weeks.
“To me, the history of this organization is very important,” Judge said. “It’s very important for all of our players coming in here to understand that this team has been here a lot longer than they have been around. It’s up to us to understand the history of this organization and who has come before us to make this a great place to be.”
9. When Judge speaks about big-picture coaching concepts, it’s easy to understand why he impressed the Giants brass when he interviewed in January. His explanation of how teams improve over the course of a season was enlightening.
“On the field, I don’t think you can ever leave that training camp mindset where you have to emphasize fundamentals and technique on a daily basis, and you have to stay sharp on that,” Judge said. “A lot of times you get to this point of the season, it becomes so much about scheme. What you see is, when you come out of training camp early in the season, there’s not as much scheme involved, but the fundamentals have to improve. You get to October and beginning of November, the scheme has come more together as a team, and maybe the fundamentals have improved to a degree, but it’s kind of leveled off.
“When you get to the backend of the season, you have a mix of two different types of teams. You have teams that continue to improve schematically and fundamentally, and you have other teams that have overloaded the schematics, forgot about the fundamentals and they fall off. While they may have a great scheme on the grass, they can’t make a tackle, can’t finish a block, can’t hold onto the ball with ball security, can’t deliver a throw in pressure situations. The fundamentals have to always be there to be a successful team.”
10. Nate Solder made his first public comments since opting out for the season this week in an interview in the New York Post. The story is worth a read to learn about the charitable work Solder is doing this fall.
From a football standpoint, I always felt like there was a strong possibility Solder would retire when he opted out. Nothing he said in the interview changed that sense.
“I feel like I’m in such a blessed position because I’ve had a window into what life after football is going to look like,” Solder told the Post. “If it ends like this, I really enjoy what I’m doing and the opportunities I have. That does not mean it’s going to happen now. It could be in two, three years. I have not made that decision yet.”
Though Solder is keeping his options open, he certainly doesn’t sound like someone who desperately misses football and can’t wait to return. Solder turns 33 in May. He has played in 130 games, won two Super Bowl rings, endured countless injuries and earned over $70 million. With three young children, including 5-year-old Hudson who is battling cancer, and ambitions far beyond football, it would not be a surprise if Solder walks away.
If Solder retires this offseason, the financial implications are the same as if he gets cut or traded. The Giants would get $5.9 million in cap savings while eating $10.5 million in dead money.
The Giants also could designate Solder as a post-June 1 cut (or he could wait until after June 1 to retire). That would result in $9.9 million in cap savings and $6.5 million in dead money in 2021. The additional $4 million in dead money would count against the 2022 cap with a post-June 1 cut.
With Thomas entrenched at left tackle and fellow rookie Matt Peart being developed to take over at right tackle, it seems unlikely that the Giants will be interested in retaining Solder at his cap hit. He could take the decision out of their hands by retiring. Prediction: Giants 24, Cardinals 22. I’m officially a believer. I learned my lesson by picking a lopsided loss to the Seahawks last week. Winning that game with McCoy has erased my doubts about the Giants’ legitimate improvement. I’m not expecting it to be pretty, but I’ve learned not to bet against this defense.

Tracking 13-Point Teasers for the 2020 NFL season (Part VII)

CreateYoureReality NFL SUPER WILDCARD WEEKEND Analysis and Picks

NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

The Rookie Report: Week 2 Starts & Sits

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! How great was it to finally have football back last weekend? The NFL season’s opening week went off without a hitch (assuming you didn’t have Mike Evans or Michael Thomas on your team), and hopefully you managed to get off to a 1-0 start. The rookies got off to an interesting start and plenty of them acquitted themselves well considering they didn’t get to play any preseason games. In a reversal of expected roles Jonathan Taylor put on a show as a receiver out of the backfield but struggled as a runner, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had an impressive debut running between the tackles but didn’t catch a single pass. Both should be every-week starters going forward. Laviska Shenault, Joshua Kelley and Zack Moss all got in the end zone in week 1, and D’Andre Swift nearly did as well. Some other rookies like Michael Pittman, Cam Akers and Bryan Edwards had less successful debuts. Overall, we now have a much better picture of how these guys are going to be deployed and should have a better handle on which ones to consider for your lineups. Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 2: @ LAC): Obviously you don’t need me to tell you to start CEH if you have him. He was fantastic as a runner in week 1 and made people who drafted him feel great about that decision. It was strange to see him do so much of his work running between the tackles though. It would have been nice to see him catch a few passes, and it would’ve been nice to see him cash in one of his 6 carries from the 3-yard line or closer for a TD (4 carries from the 1), but overall it was a strong debut and the fact that he got 6 carries in close should be seen as a good thing. Houston’s D-line dominated in those short yardage situations, but not every defense KC faces will do the same. The Chiefs are comfortably favored in week 2 and face a defense that ranked 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat last season. I’d also expect the team to make an effort to get CEH more involved in the passing game, even if only to prove a point. Edwards-Helaire is a fine play in all DFS formats as well as a locked-in RB1 for season-long leagues this week.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Like CEH, you don’t need me to tell you to start Taylor. He didn’t really fill up the stat sheet as a runner last week (9 carries for 22 yards), but Philip Rivers utilized him a bunch in the passing game (6-67 on 6 targets). With Marlon Mack going down for the year, this backfield figures to be a 2-man tandem with Taylor and Hines. Taylor should dominate the early down work, and while the matchup against the Vikings isn’t that favorable – they allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game last year, Taylor will see plenty of volume to make him a solid RB2 this week. With a price tag of just $5,700 on DraftKings, I would expect you’ll see Taylor in a high percentage of DFS cash game lineups this week.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 2: @ Hou): I know starting a backup running back in week 2 is a risky proposition. I list Dobbins here just to emphasize how much I like his matchup this week. Houston had a bottom half run defense a year ago and looked overmatched in the opener by CEH and the Chiefs run game (at least away from the goal line). Baltimore is a touchdown favorite this weekend, and I expect them to win the game easily. Houston just didn’t look right in week one, and I don’t think the Ravens are the antidote to what ails them. Dobbins already looked better than Mark Ingram in the opener, and I expect him to get plenty of run as the Ravens open up the lead. This may be me getting ahead of myself on Dobbins, but I like him to go for 80+ yards and a score in this one and finish as an RB2. The Ravens have the highest projected point total of the week at 29.25,
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): The Falcons have had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL for two years running, and they looked as bad as ever in week 1 against Seattle. Russ Wilson can make a lot of defenses look bad, but the Falcons’ pass defense looked non-existent. This game figures to be a shoot-out with Dallas’ implied total of 28.5, so all 3 Cowboy receivers are in play, especially with tight end Blake Jarwin done for the year. It appeared that Dak was force-feeding the ball to Amari last Sunday, but I’d expect the targets to be more evenly divided in this one. Zeke Elliott should have a big game as well, but we could see all 3 Dallas receivers end up as top-30 WRs this week. Lamb was targeted 6 times in the opener. I’d expect that number to be higher in this one.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 2: @ Cle): Burrow is only worth considering in 2-quarterback or Superflex formats, but this should be a better matchup for him than the Chargers. The Browns ranked just 18th in pass defense DVOA last season and were absolutely shredded by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in week 1. Burrow proved that he’s capable of running the ball himself a bit in the opener, and only Cincinnati allowed more QB rushing yards in 2019 than the Browns. The Vegas sharps don’t expect a big output from Cincy’s offense, giving them an implied total of just 18.75 points, but I think they overperform in this one. I like Burrow’s chances at a top-15 week.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 2: @ Ten): Robinson’s performance and usage in week 1 may have been even more of a surprise than the outcome of the game. The Jaguars were heavy underdogs and came out with a win, and they may have found their feature back in the process. Most people expected a heavy dose of Chris Thompson on passing downs, but Thompson played just 12 snaps to Robinson’s 36. The Jaguars are heavy underdogs again this week, so temper expectations a bit, but this matchup has about the same degree of difficulty for Robinson as the last one with Indy. Robinson will be heavily involved and should be a solid RB3 this week.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 2: @ GB): Week one did not end on a high note for Swift, as he dropped what would’ve been a game-winning touchdown pass in the closing seconds as the Lions blew a 17-point lead in losing to the Bears. Here’s the positive – Swift led the Lions running backs in snaps, playing 10 more than Adrian Peterson and 14 more than Kerryon Johnson. He was battling an injury in practice last week and still was on the field a lot. You’d like to see more production come out of those snaps, but that should be coming. Green Bay fielded one of the worst run defenses in the NFL a year ago, and while AP still figures to see a lot of the rushing load, I’d count on Swift being more involved in this one as he gets closer to health. He’ll be a boom-or-bust upside flex option this week with more value in PPR formats.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia): Moss didn’t pile up a lot of yards in week 1 (27 yards on 12 touches), but his usage is encouraging for fantasy players. He was targeted 4 times in the passing game, and 8 of his 12 touches came in the red zone with one of them ending in a touchdown. The other half of the Bills’ backfield duo, Devin Singletary, had zero red zone touches among his 9 carries and 5 catches. Moss was on the field for the vast majority of red zone snaps. Miami gave up 1.2 running back scores per game a year ago and gave up another one in the opener this year. Moss is a solid bet to score a touchdown for the second straight week, which gives him some flex appeal in most formats. The Dolphins ranked 29th in run defense DVOA last season, and were 32nd in that stat in week 1.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 2: @ NYJ): Aiyuk looks likely to return this week, and he’ll do so in a matchup against one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Jets do have a stout run defense up front, but they can’t cover on the back end. Buffalo attacked them through the air a ton last week with Josh Allen tallying 33 completions for 312 yards and 2 TDs. Buffalo is typically one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league. George Kittle is fighting through an injury this week and Deebo Samuel will be out again. That puts Aiyuk in line for probably 6-8 targets, and against this defense that could be fantasy gold. He could be a huge value this week if you have the stones to play him. Just make sure he’s active on game day.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Ruggs got off to a hot start in week 1 before being sidelined for a bit with a knee injury. He was able to return and finish the game but did most of his damage before getting hurt. The Raiders clearly focused on trying to get the ball in his hands as you’d expect for a first round pick, and this week he faces off against a Saints team that allowed the 5th-most WR points per game last year. The Saints did revamp the secondary in the offseason adding Janoris Jenkins and Malcolm Jenkins and played a respectable game against Tampa last week, but the best part of that pass defense is top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore doesn’t typically follow receivers into the slot, and that’s where Ruggs played more than 50% of his snaps in week 1. Getting away from Lattimore that often should help Ruggs to a 60+ yard outing this week, and he’s always a threat to take one to the house. If you’re in a deep league or trying to replace an injured starter like Godwin, Golladay or Michael Thomas, Ruggs should be in consideration.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Reagor had the longest play of any rookie in week 1 with a 55-yard catch, but it was his only catch of the week. The Eagles had a clear game plan to use Reagor and DeSean Jackson as deep threats, but those tend to be low-percentage throws and neither guy put up a great fantasy day. Reagor and Jackson combined for 11 targets, and both had an average target depth of more than 30 yards. No other receiver on the team was even at 10. It was a good sign that Reagor was involved, but I’d like to see the Eagles diversify the way he’s used and not limit him only to deep shots. He was coming off an injury and played just 59% of the snaps. That was the team-high among the WRs, but I think it will go up this week. I expect Jalen Ramsey will shadow D-Jax, so there is some upside for Reagor on the opposite side. Even if he doesn’t see more short targets this week, it only takes 1 or two deep balls to post a nice fantasy day if he finds the end zone.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 2: @ PIT): Courland Sutton seems like a long shot to play again this week, which gives Jeudy another opportunity as the lead wide receiver. Jeudy actually played fewer snaps than either Tim Patrick or DaeSean Hamilton in week 1 but had as many targets (8) as the two of them combined. The Broncos want to get the ball in his hands. The matchup this week is much tougher. The Steelers ranked 3rd in pass defense DVOA a year ago and did a good job limiting everyone other than Darius Slayton in the opener. I’d lean against playing Jeudy this week unless you have to, but his role in the offense gives him enough upside to consider here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Phi): Akers struggled in his debut while teammate Malcolm Brown got the hot hand, and as a result Brown got the lion’s share of the backfield work. Things don’t get much easier for Akers to make a splash this week with Darrell Henderson a week healthier and a tough visit to the Eagles coming up. Philly allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game last season and ranked 3rd in run defense DVOA a season ago. Peyton Barber found paydirt twice last Sunday against Philly, but the Washington backs combined for just 72 scrimmage yards on 32 touches. If Akers gets the hot hand early he may get more run than last week, but against this defense I wouldn’t bet on it.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Kelly had an impressive debut tallying 12 carries for 60 yards and a score in the opener. The reports that he was going to have a big role alongside Austin Ekeler in this backfield were clearly accurate. He wasn’t targeted in the opener, but Ekeler was only targeted once himself. I think a lot of that has to do with the QB change the franchise went through in the offseason. Philip Rivers was heavily targeting his backs in his Colts debut, but Tyrod has typically not thrown to the running backs at nearly the same clip. The rushing usage should remain strong for both Ekeler and Kelley all year though. The matchup this week doesn’t favor Kelley. The Chiefs did let David Johnson get loose a little bit in the season opener, but this game has obvious blowout potential, and if that happens it’ll be Ekeler handling most of the work. Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points, but I expect them to cover that without much trouble. With no receiving usage to boost his totals, Kelley will need to get in the end zone to return value. I don’t have a lot of faith that he scores one.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): Dillon was mostly an afterthought in the Packers’ offense in week one, finishing the game with just 5 offensive snaps and 2 carries for 14 yards. Head coach Matt LaFleur expressed an interest in getting him more involved in week two, and with Green Bay favored by nearly a touchdown there is some chance at some extra run late if the Packers get out in front of Detroit. I still wouldn’t expect him to be used much as a receiver, and the red zone work still belongs to Aaron Jones. Jones handled 3 of the team’s 4 carries inside the 10, and he also had 4 red zone targets. Dillon isn’t worth consideration for fantasy lineups this week unless you expect a blowout win for Green Bay.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 2: @ Ten): Viska didn’t approach the 10 touches that I was hoping for in the opener. He only got halfway there but did cash in a touchdown. The Jaguars will clearly be a slow tempo offense again this year despite a change in head coach and offensive scheme. That is going to limit Shenault’s weekly upside. They’re going to be creative in getting the ball into his hands each week, but if he’s only handling 5 or 6 weekly touches it’s going to be hard for him to return value in weeks where he doesn’t get into the end zone. He’ll have weekly fantasy starter upside, but he’ll be hard to rely on until he jumps ahead of Keelan Cole on the depth chart. I’d leave him on the pine this week.
WR Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Edwards’ stat line in week 1 left a LOT to be desired, as he pulled in just one pass on one target for 9 yards. What you may not know is that Edwards led the Raiders’ receivers with 75% of the snaps played. The targets are going to come. Edwards and Ruggs are clearly the top two receivers in Vegas and they’re going to make an effort to get Edwards more involved. This week could be a rough one though as Edwards may be squaring off with the Saints’ best corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore doesn’t follow the opposing number one receiver into the slot, and Ruggs played more than half of his snaps last weekend in the slot. That means plenty of snaps where he’ll be facing off with Edwards. We’ve already seen a week where the ball didn’t find Edwards very much, so I’d be hesitant to trust him this week in a tougher matchup.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): Claypool is the WR4 in this offense, but Pittsburgh did look for ways to get him involved in week 1. He was targeted twice and also got a rushing attempt on a gadget play. With AJ Bouye out for Denver there should be plenty of opportunities for the Steelers’ receivers to produce, but Claypool’s limited snaps will make him a touchdown dart throw for the foreseeable future.
WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): I wouldn’t be panicking too much just yet if you drafted Pittman in a deep league, but it’s going to take him a few weeks to work his way into a useful role. He’s still running behind Zach Pascal for the WR3 role in the offense. He did play more than half of the offensive snaps but was targeted just twice and ended with 2 catches for 10 yards. There will be better days ahead, but you’ll need to see more from the rookie before giving him flex consideration.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 2: @ PHI): Reports out of Rams camp had Jefferson pegged to be the team WR3 ahead of Josh Reynolds, but it was pretty clear on Sunday night that they’ll share the role early on this season. Neither was a big target priority though, with Jefferson seeing 3 targets and Reynolds just 1 on Sunday night. There could be some sneaky upside for one of those guys this week with Darius Slay likely to be shadowing Robert Woods, but I’d look for Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee to be the bigger beneficiaries of the matchup. I’d hold off on trying my luck with Jefferson.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 2: @ IND): Jefferson and Bisi Johnson seemed to be on about the same footing in the WR pecking order for the Vikings in week 1, but they’re both still a distant second behind Adam Thielen. The Vikings were behind on the scoreboard for all but two of their offensive snaps Sunday, and they still threw only 25 times. This is going to be a run-heavy attack all year, and Jefferson is probably going to have to move clearly ahead of Bisi to be a weekly consideration for fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined for now.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 2: @ HOU): Duvernay played just 11 snaps in week one and is clearly behind Hollywood Brown, Miles Boykin and Willie Snead on the depth chart. Baltimore is favored by a touchdown and has a chance to pull away again and get some extra run for their backups, but that is more likely to help their backup running backs than Duvernay. Keep him benched this week.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Hightower played a healthy amount in week one, handling just 13 fewer snaps than Jalen Reagor’s team high 40, but he wasn’t used in ways that will give him fantasy value. He isn’t going to see a ton of targets, so he has to be used on deep balls to provide much value. In week 1, Hightower’s average target traveled just 8 yards in the air. I also expect DeSean Jackson and Reagor to see their snaps increase as they get closer to full strength. Hightower is a low-upside dart throw option this week unless something changes in his usage.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 2: @ CLE): Higgins was on the field for just 15 snaps with a big crowd of receivers in front of him on the depth chart. I don’t see a lot of reason why that will change in week 2 without injuries in front of him, and with the Bengals coming into this one with an implied total of 18.75 it’s hard to imagine him making a fantasy impact on so few snaps. Keep him sidelined in your lineups.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Kmet was targeted just once in the opener and served as the TE3 behind Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. He’s nothing more than a long-shot weekly TD dart throw for now. The Bears are much more likely to look for Jimmy Graham in the red zone than Kmet.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): I told you last week that if you’re in a 2-QB league you should be picking up Tua as your QB3 off the waiver wire, and after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions in week one, I want to reiterate it. Fitzmagic will start again in week 2, but the Bills allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game last year and picked up right where they left off in week 1. With another poor start by Fitzpatrick, it may be time for the Tua era to start in Miami. There could be some growing pains in his first couple starts if DeVante Parker is out, but he’s going be an asset in the back half of the season.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 2: @ ARI): Gibson didn’t play nearly as much as I would’ve liked to see in week 1 and it was a bummer that the team didn’t try to use him at all as a slot receiver, but Gibson led the Washington Football Team’s running backs with 44 scrimmage yards on 11 touches. It was tough sledding against a very good Eagles’ run defense for all 3 backs. Aside from a 20-yard carry by Gibson, the top three backs combined for 28 carries and 43 yards. The matchup gets easier this week and Washington will undoubtedly look to get Gibson involved. He touched the ball on 11 of his 18 snaps a week ago. Peyton Barber will still be the best bet for a touchdown in this offense, but I like Gibson’s chance at a better performance this week than what he did in the opener. He’s worth looking at if you need a flex in really deep league.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): James Conner is questionable to play this week after leaving Monday night’s game with an ankle injury, which could open the door for McFarland to make his NFL debut this week. He was a healthy scratch last week with Conner, Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels serving as the 3 active backs. If Conner sits, I’d expect Snell to handle a lot of the rushing load and Samuels to serve as the 3rd down back, but I’d expect the Steelers the try and get the ball in the hands of the speedy McFarland a handful of times. The Broncos aren’t exactly an easy matchup, so McFarland is mostly just a shoot the moon sort of DFS play this week. If Conner plays, ignore all of this.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 2: @ GB): Kenny Golladay looks likely to sit again this week, and Cephus saw a whopping TEN targets in the opener and played 79% of the offensive snaps. He only turned 3 of the targets into catches, but he clearly has some trust from Matt Stafford. He’ll avoid Jaire Alexander’s coverage this week, which makes him a nice play in a game where the Lions figure to be throwing a fair amount. The Packers are favored by 6. A repeat of the 10 targets might be asking a lot, but he’ll be involved enough to warrant flex consideration in deeper leagues, and his $3,800 DraftKings price tag could be a steal in DFS tournaments this week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 2: @ MIA): Davis is a guy you should be looking at if you’re in a dynasty league where he’s available. Buffalo’s offense looked different in week one. They played with a lot of tempo and played with a lot of receivers on the field. They went 4-wide on 20 of their offensive snaps. They had that many on the field for just 5 snaps in ALL of 2019. If this continues, Davis is going to be on the field a decent amount this year. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in week one, and while he’ll remain low on the target priority list for now, his high snap count is strong evidence that Davis is a part of Buffalo’s plans. He probably doesn’t belong on the waiver wire in most dynasty leagues.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Mooney saw limited opportunity in the opener but made the most of his chances. He posted 3 catches for 38 yards on 3 targets in just 21 snaps. He’s already on equal footing with Javon Wims on the depth chart and is ahead of Riley Ridley. With the rumors that Allen Robinson may be on his way out of Chicago, now is the time to scoop up Mooney off the waiver wire, especially in dynasty formats. I can’t imagine Robinson is in Chicago beyond 2020, and if Mooney shows well he could be a big part of the Bears’ future plans at the position. Mooney didn’t put up gaudy receiving stats at Tulane, but he played in a low volume passing attack. He accounted for 41% of the team receiving yards as a junior in 2018 before seeing a dip last year.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): New Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski clearly wants to recreate the offense he ran for the Vikings a year ago, and that means a ton of 2-tight end sets. Only the Eagles spent more time with two tight ends on the field than Minnesota did last year, and in week one only the Eagles played more snaps with two tight ends than the Browns did. David Njoku was placed on IR after the game and will miss at least the next 3 weeks. The Bengals coughed up 5 catches for 73 yards to Hunter Henry in the opener, and Bryant was a dynamic receiver in college who posted a 65-1004-7 line a year ago at FAU. With Austin Hooper around, it’ll be tough to trust Bryant in normal lineups this week, but he’ll cost the minimum in DFS and is a nice stash for dynasty leagues, two tight end leagues, and deeper TE-premium formats.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough lineup decisions involving rookies this week. Keep in mind that any players at the same position listed at under the same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don’t end up playing an inactive player unexpectedly. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article at drinkfive.com

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THE BEST NFL PICKS FOR WEEK 11: Roni's Ringers Betting ...

The Chicago Bears take on the Los Angeles Rams during Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season ... The Chicago Bears take on the Los Angeles Rams during Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: ... Welcome to your home for football , with SHARP BETS & FANTASY SETS... Listen to Nick , Sir, Tim, & 1 GUEST a week give insight into their weekly picks and fa... SBR's Jordan Sharp and Swinging Johnson are a combined 26-17-1 on the season in their NFL Picks, and the two expert handicappers are back this week with more... Big Ri and Ace Sports Picks 11/22/2020 NFL Week 9 Record: Big Ri: 1-2. Ace 2-1, Harry B: 1-0 SYL Cafe Instagram: @syl.cafe 2020 NFL Week 10 Spread Picks Wage... THE BEST NFL PICKS FOR WEEK 11: Roni's Ringers The Red Hot Handcapper is at it again. These are my picks for the upcoming weekend's games. NFL at it's best a... Episode 210 of The Sharp 600 welcomes Scott Shapiro of BetAmerica, who runs down his favorite football bets of the week. Host Rob Cressy shares his best bett...

User	ROI	Record	% Correct	Profit/Loss (U)	Total Bet (U)
u/BrandonAiyuk	+21.47%	7-5-0	58.33%	+3.22	15.00
u/SJT29	+5.98%	72-68-2	51.43%	+10.23	171.00
u/bhaudown	-3.46%	48-46-4	51.06%	-5.75	166.00
u/tmen7	-6.72%	80-84-1	48.78%	-12.28	182.75
u/speediskey7	-11.69%	28-37-0	43.08%	-8.01	68.50

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