Hello everyone! I have only been on Reddit for a few months but I learned so much from it that I figured I should try and give back to the community. English is my second language and this is the first time I ever write a full-length article, I hope you will enjoy reading it and I would be very thankful if you could provide some feedback about my writing, about the topic, or about anything else really… So here goes!
Why you should learn poker and game theory:
My story is similar to that of many: I learned about the game 10 years ago (during the golden age of online poker) when some friends of mine invited me to play a home game. Although I initially thought of poker as just another game of chance akin to playing slots or roulette in a casino, I quickly came to realize that there is a lot more to it as my more experienced friends would repeatedly get the best of me during these home games, which led me to start watching videos and reading strategy books to improve my skill… Little did I know it’d be the start of a journey that would impact many different aspects of my life way beyond the game itself, as most of the fundamental principles learned through poker can be applied to your decision-making outside of the game, especially when it comes to money management and investing. Now, let’s dive into a few of these principles:

- Risk management (i.e. Bankroll management)
When learning about how to be successful playing poker, the first big piece of advice most people come across is bankroll management or BRM. To understand BRM, you must first realize that poker has a lot of variance: you might be vastly ahead in a given hand but there is almost always a slim chance that you will lose in the end if one specific card hits. This implies that you will sometimes lose even though you were a 99% favorite, and that you will sometimes get unlucky and lose 2, 5 or maybe even 20 such encounters in a row. THIS is variance. It doesn’t mean that you played bad or that you made bad decisions, but rather that you got unlucky. Over time you will have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks, and these will average out in the long term… It’s just the way the game goes.
Now that we understand variance, let’s get back to BRM. What is it exactly? Let’s say you are the best poker player in the world but you only have 1000$ that you can EVER use to play with. Taking your whole 1000$ on one table and multiplying your stack at an exponential rate might seem like a good idea. Surely nothing can go wrong since you’re the best player in the world right? But variance can be a bitch ;) Even if you’re the best you will lose regularly and you will sometimes get unlucky, it’s just part of the game. The correct move here is to apply BRM, which means only using a small % of your available capital for each game you play in order to reduce the risk of going broke. Using only 100$ per game would already be a lot safer, but you still run the risk of going under on a streak of bad luck. If you only allocate 10$ per game you play, then it becomes virtually impossible for you to ever go broke, even on a huge streak of bad luck. Sure it’s not as exciting and you won’t be making money quite as fast as you could, but this is the way to go to make sure you don’t go broke…
This approach to risk management translates very well to investing:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose. Once the money is on the table it’s as good as gone, which is why you should only use your “spare” cash and never invest with your living expenses or worse, borrow money to invest.
- Diversify your investments. There is always a chance, however slim it might be, that you will lose most of your investment. This is why going all-in on a specific investment is generally a bad idea (this applies particularly well in the crypto space).
Proper BRM allows you to make sure that you will come out ahead in the long run if you play well, which basically comes down to making more good decisions than bad ones. But that’s assuming you don’t let emotions come in the way of your decision-making, which brings us to our next point…

- Emotional management (i.e. Handling tilt/Positive mindset)
Nobody likes losing… In the same way we enjoy winning because of the dopamine rush, we feel bad when we lose which is totally natural. Overcoming this and avoiding tilt (irrational decisions made out of angefrustration) is an essential skill for any successful poker player. You might play a sound game of poker and apply good BRM, but you will still lose if you let your emotions get the best of you.
After a loss, rather than being angry and frustrated, you should evaluate your decision-making. If your decision-making was good, you just got unlucky and you shouldn’t worry about it since you are playing for the long run (remember that variance teaches us that anything can happen in the short-term). If your decision-making was bad, you need to learn from your mistakes and move on. The key here is to always have a positive mindset: making mistakes is part of the learning process and should be seen as an occasion to improve. Being angry and ranting, on the other hand, rarely result in anything positive.
Again, this translates very well to investing:
- Don’t be impulsive, don’t let your emotions cloud your judgment. You should not FOMO because the price is pumping, nor should you sell because of FUD or price corrections. If you believe in a project, short-term price changes (did I hear someone say “variance”?) shouldn’t bother you.
- Don’t get stuck up on losses. You bought the top and it crashed immediately after? You sold the bottom right before a huge rally? Don’t let this bother you: what’s done is done and you just need to move on and make the best of your current situation.
- Have a positive mindset. Anger and frustration lead to nothing. Yes you could have bought in 2009 when you first heard about it, hindsight is always 20/20. Stay positive and keep learning/improving yourself.
The good thing about all this is that it goes way beyond poker or investing. Being aware of your emotions and how they affect you, learning how to handle losing even when you were “supposed” to win, etc… All this can tremendously help you in all aspects of life by making you less impulsive and more rational in your decision-making. Now, this leaves us with our last fundamental principle of a sound poker strategy:

- Basic stats and probabilities (i.e. Expected value/Odds)
To become an accomplished player, you will inevitably have to learn about these simple mathematical tools that poker players use all the time in their decision-making process, such as odds and expected value. To make it very simple, the expected value (EV) of any bet is (REWARD \ WinRate - RISK), meaning that if you can bet 1000$ with a chance to win 10k$ half of the time, your EV is *(10000\0.5)-1000 = +4000$**. Obviously these are great odds to take as long as you have enough capital to overcome variance. But things would be very different if the odds of winning were only 5% as your EV would then be negative *(10000\0.05)-1000 = -500$.*** Now this is clearly a bet you should not take…
Now that you know probabilities, statistics and game theory are useful decision-making tools in poker, guess what? They are also extremely useful in investing! Even better, the study of game theory with problems such as the “Byzantine generals” or the “Three prisoners” has been, along with cryptography, the foundation on which blockchain technology was built, enabling the trustless and decentralized services that are about to revolutionize our world…
Assuming this was enough to pique your interest and make you want to dig deeper, I’ll just add that just like the other topics we discussed and as you might have guessed, this translates very well to investing and also to pretty much anything in your life:
- Learn how to break down complex situations. Logical thinking paired with a statistical approach will help you break down any complex problem into several easier problems, making the whole thing a lot easier to approach/comprehend.
- Base your decisions on a methodical and rational approach. List every possible outcome along with its associated upside/downside, estimate the probability of each outcome to occur and make the best decision based on the information available.
My point here is that risk management, emotional management and statistics/game theory are all awesome tools that you should definitely add to your arsenal. Not only will it improve your money-management and investing, it will also be beneficial to your decision-making and to your life in general. Of course poker is not the only way to learn about these, but I personally found it to be the best practice ground to refine and improve them, which is why I strongly encourage you all to try it out and study the game.
I hope you enjoyed the article, and I wish you all a happy 2021 bull run! May we all come closer to retirement and financial independence!

TL;DR: more than a game, poker is a school of thought. It teaches you to be reasonable, to assess the risk of every single choice you make, to overcome you emotions, to play the long game rather than the short game, to make informed decisions, etc… This has made me a lot wiser in every aspect of my life, which is why I strongly encourage to try it out and read about poker strategy.

The Psychology of Money (#Longread)

I've often said (and I stole the joke from someone) that FIRE is a combination of 5th Grade Math and PhD Level Psychology. Anyone who can achieve stable employment can, theoretically, achieve FIRE - but most don't.
I just came across this long article on the subject - https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/
The author lists 20 "flaws, biases, and causes of bad behaviour". Any resonate with you - it certainly made me pat myself on the back a few times, which makes me suspect there's a few here that I'm just currently blind to in my own life!?

Earned success and deserved failure fallacy: A tendency to underestimate the role of luck and risk, and a failure to recognize that luck and risk are different sides of the same coin.
Cost avoidance syndrome: A failure to identify the true costs of a situation, with too much emphasis on financial costs while ignoring the emotional price that must be paid to win a reward.
Rich man in the car paradox. (You don't admire the man, you think people would admire you if you were the man.)
A tendency to adjust to current circumstances in a way that makes forecasting your future desires and actions difficult, resulting in the inability to capture long-term compounding rewards that come from current decisions.
Anchored-to-your-own-history bias: Your personal experiences make up maybe 0.00000001% of what’s happened in the world but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.
Historians are Prophets fallacy: Not seeing the irony that history is the study of surprises and changes while using it as a guide to the future. An overreliance on past data as a signal to future conditions in a field where innovation and change is the lifeblood of progress.
The seduction of pessimism in a world where optimism is the most reasonable stance.
Underappreciating the power of compounding, driven by the tendency to intuitively think about exponential growth in linear terms.
Attachment to social proof in a field that demands contrarian thinking to achieve above-average results.
An appeal to academia in a field that is governed not by clean rules but loose and unpredictable trends.
The social utility of money coming at the direct expense of growing money; wealth is what you don’t see.
A tendency toward action in a field where the first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.
Underestimating the need for room for error, not just financially but mentally and physically.
A tendency to be influenced by the actions of other people who are playing a different financial game than you are.
An attachment to financial entertainment due to the fact that money is emotional, and emotions are revved up by argument, extreme views, flashing lights, and threats to your wellbeing.
Optimism bias in risk-taking, or “Russian Roulette should statistically work” syndrome: An over attachment to favorable odds when the downside is unacceptable in any circumstance.
A preference for skills in a field where skills don’t matter if they aren’t matched with the right behavior.
Denial of inconsistencies between how you think the world should work and how the world actually works, driven by a desire to form a clean narrative of cause and effect despite the inherent complexities of everything involving money.
Political beliefs driving financial decisions, influenced by economics being a misbehaved cousin of politics.
The three-month bubble: Extrapolating the recent past into the near future, and then overestimating the extent to which whatever you anticipate will happen in the near future will impact your future.

tldr from the author: "If there’s a common denominator in these, it’s a preference for humility, adaptability, long time horizons, and skepticism of popularity around anything involving money. Which can be summed up as: Be prepared to roll with the punches."

How luck plays an important role in the stock market (GME and others)

Fellow retards,
I noticed that this sub is going to hit 2 million people soon, and I have decided to put aside my project assignments to write this DD (albeit more towards psychologically) on why luck is extremely important in the stock market, and what you can do to potentially get in favor of luck. Before I start, I want to congratulate you on being here. You have came a long way in life, and there’s more to come. Be happy.
TLDR at the last paragraph.
I want to talk mainly 3 things; luck, the psychology behind investing and what you should do to maximize profits.
Luck
In the book 'The Drunkard's Walk', under chapter of 'Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion', and I quote: "In 1978, Koppett revealed a system that he claimed could determine, by the end of January every year, whether the stock market would go up or down in that calendar year. His system had correctly predicted the market, he said, for the past eleven years. Of course, stock-picking systems are easy to identify in hindsight; the true test is whether they will work in the future. Koppett's system passed that test too: judging the market by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it worked for eleven straight years, from 1979 through 1989, got it wrong in 1990, and was correct again every year until 1998. But although Koppett's predictions were correct for a streak of eighteen out of nineteen years, I feel confident in asserting that his streak involved no skill whatsoever. Why? Because Leonard Koppett was a columnist for Sporting News, and his system was based on the results of the Super Bowl, the championship game of professional football. Whenever the team from the (original) National Football league won, the stock market, he predicted, would rise."
In the book 'Fooled by Randomness', the Prologue mentioned "...luck disguised and perceived as nonluck (that is, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (that is, determinism). "
In the book ‘The Black Swan’ by Taleb Nassim Nicholas, Page 119 mentioned " A successful person will try to convince you that his achievements could not possibly be accidental, just as a gambler who wins at roulette seven times in a row will explain to you that the odds against such a streak are one in several million, so you either have to believe some transcendental intervention is in play or accept his skills and insight in picking the winning numbers." More often than not, luck is rarely on your side. I can provide many other articles, but I believe you get the point. To emphasize it, "the habit of mistaking luck for skill is most prevalent - and most conspicuous - and that is the world of markets."
So why am I saying all these? What I am trying to imply is, do appreciate your GME gains, or whatever astronomical gains that you have. These gains, more often than not, are results of extremely lucky happenstances, where most people are incapable of harnessing them. Yes, there are tons of good DDs. But you yourselves are incredibly lucky to be part of WSB, and personally reading the DDs yourselves, and lucky enough to decide that you would be retarded enough to take the risk. You should be happy and grateful about it, because like I said, this is hugely, and heavily dependent on luck. Humans are flawed, because we have the tendency to look for specific causes that lead to effects. We often find it hard to accept that an event can be the result of total randomness, but sometimes it is. In financial forecasting, several times random volatility is mistaken for accurate prediction. In a group of many analysts, it is normal to expect that someone's predictions will turn out to be true (u/DeepFuckingValue). So, in case you get way too ahead of yourselves thinking you are absolutely a genius for having triple percentage gains in your portfolio, remember you're most likely just lucky. And since you're lucky, be appreciative and do not be complacent.
Psychology behind Investing
Several studies have fooled people into believing they are in control of something they actually have no control over. In fact, human decision-making shows systematic simplifications and deviations from the tenets of rationality (‘heuristics’) that may lead to suboptimal decisional outcomes (‘cognitive biases’). There are currently three prevailing theoretical perspectives on the origin of heuristics and cognitive biases: a cognitive-psychological, an ecological and an evolutionary perspective. To simplify that, it basically means that cognitive biases arise from intrinsic brain mechanisms that are fundamental for the working of our neural networks. Your mind is always on the cautious side of things, because it is trying to protect you.
Remember a time when you were very near the edge of a building/cliff, and all of a sudden you feel hypersensitive to the surrounding around you? You are aware of every rocks and stones that might sabotage you. Another example can be that you shiver when peeing, because your body is exaggerating the signal that you are rapidly losing body heat, and is trying to shiver up the muscle fiber to keep you warm, etc. You get the idea.
This unfortunately, applies in investing as well. Your mind will inevitably forces you to be on the safer side. A dip? Oh no... you panic. But relax, that is normal. In my last point, I will explain what you can do to overcome it.
What you can do to stay calm?
So now you know that it is in human nature to be a paper handed bitch. The first step is realizing that your own neural networks are playing a huge part in giving you a paper hand. When you realized that it is your own mind that is keeping you on the safer side, perhaps you can be more self-aware. Being impatient in the market is the worst mistake that you would commit while investing in the stocks. You have to know that if you do not have good patience in the market then you would find difficulty in getting the right stocks for your investment. You have to finally take your own decisions when you wish to select the stocks. Remember however, you do have to be lucky to hit the jackpot on certain investments as per my first point.
Confirmation bias is also a bitch. As philosopher Francis Bacon put it in 1620, "the human understanding, once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances that confirm it, and though the contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that this opinion will remain unshaken." This happens very often in WSB, and I want you to be cautious as well. To show you how easy confirmation bias is, imagine I have 5 numbers here. After presenting you these numbers, I want you to guess what is the rule of the game. Here are the 5 numbers: 4 6 8 10 12. What will your next 3 numbers be? What is the rule of the game? The rule is: Increasing Numbers, the next 3 numbers can be 13 14 15 Most of you might have guessed "increasing even numbers and provided with 14 16 18, when in fact it is not.
Luck does not solely come from deciding whether to listen to another retard's DD on a thread, and YOLO-ing your life savings onto some stocks. It also comes in the form of your birth status, etc. Having a $100,000 head start in the stock market, is almost always better than someone having $1000 as a starting capital (or worse still, negative capital simply because your parents are poor, that's unlucky).
That being said, I believe all of us here are in some way privileged to be gathered here and discussing individually. The poor kids in some countries have to fight for clean water and food. So the next time you realized that you are earning money in the stock market, remember, it is incredibly hard to do it, and you should be proud of yourselves. And in the scenario where you lose your money, well, you shouldn't be surprised either way. You are bound to be losing.
Here are some books you can refer to if you're interested: The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow (How Randomness Rules Our Lives), Fooled by Randomness by Taleb N, The Black Swan by Taleb N, Who’s in Charge? by Michael S. Gazzaniga (on Free will and the science of the brain), Success and Luck by Robert H. Frank, The Most Good You Can Do (How effective altruism is changing ideas about living ethically) by Peter Singer.
Clarification: Some people mentioned if this post was directed to "diminish the contributions of skill and the hard effort of anyone". Absolutely not. ~~This post is assuming that in the top few % (if you're reading this, yourself included), everyone is just as talented.~~ But to be part of that 1% in that 1%, to be the richest among the richest, you have to be incredibly lucky.
TLDR: If you make huge gains, go and give some of it to other people that may not have been so lucky. Go and give it to the homeless people at the unemployment line, who ain't so lucky as you. Maybe buy him food. Get him clothes. Donate to your local charities. Most importantly, give it back to your parents, because your parents are the one who, most likely, set you up in this direction, and you are lucky enough to be here today. If you did not make any gains, remember, it is perfectly okay.
Shorter TLDR: Be happy, be grateful.
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

My story and start.

(22 M)This is hard. It’s been hard. I know in my heart gambling has done nothing but rip me to shreds mentally and ruin a good chunk of my life, but some how quitting has a stronger feeling than losing a long term friend or disappointing a loved one. Between 19-22 I have lost over $240,000 and counting. My entire life I have been stingy about cash and never spent a nickel on anything for myself, until I found gambling. Prior to gambling I was a happy, self made 19 year old working from home as a live streamer with a large platform I built for myself making more money than 90% of people my age with a hefty savings to show for it, had a girlfriend that I loved to death and wanted to make a real life with. Then it happened. Roughly 3 years ago I discovered online casinos and realized I only had to be 18 instead of 21 like my local casino so I decided to try it. Deposited $50 and turned it into $200, loved the feeling. Lost a deposit or two not long after, then the worst thing that has ever happened in my life occurred. I deposited my usual $50 and over the course of 10 hours playing online blackjack/roulette turned it into $30,000. At 20 years old I was sitting in front of a computer doing $500 spins on black while most people my age where splitting apartments so they could afford $500 for rent. That night I lost all conception of what money truly means and is. The same night I proceeded to lose the entire balance at the crack of dawn with my girlfriend sleeping 5 feet away from me. No words and actions could describe the shame and guilt I felt when I looked to my right. Not even an hour before that I could have stopped and woke her up to the news that I made $30,000 and it would’ve made a massive change in our life. Instead I blew it and was too ashamed to tell her or anyone for that matter. But now something clicked in my head and my brain said “you can win that again, you just need to deposit and take your time”. this mindset turned to a boiling rage, soon my deposits went from $50 to $200, to $500. Until my (joint)bank account was dry. I had gone completely broke at age 21 after being one of the most on track kids I knew at 19. The shame and anger I still feel now is like being forced to do a naked halftime show at the super bowl. After losing all the money I became enthralled in making more money so I could play. I slowly started to lose interest in everything around me that wasn’t gambling. Starting with my job (which I fucking loved and was so blessed to have) then my hobbies (lost interest in anything that costs money since that would be taking away my ability to gamble said money) and finally my love life. My girlfriend would invite me to do things and I’d blow it off so I could stay home and blow all my money or drive to the casino with my entire weeks pay to blow it at the tables and drive home furious to the only thing (which I didn’t see at the time) that mattered or cared about me, my girlfriend. Seeing the disappointment in her eyes as I blew everything we had and eagerly waited for the next sum of money to come from a paycheck or selling something I didn’t use anymore was the worst of it. The only person who ever truly cared for me and loved me, and instead of seeing that I was blinded in the fog of rushing to the atm to slip in my debit card like a junkie stabbing a needle in their arm. I am disgusted at the sheer thought of what my life could’ve been if I had never deposited that initial $50, but it’s something I now have to live with. And if I ever want to have a different version of a happy life aside from the one I missed this gambling shit has to stop. 4 months ago that same girlfriend left me (much later than she should have) and it crushed me more than a big loss at the casino ever could. The hardest part in my head to this day is I never got to find closure in my guilt or shame, and to my actions I don’t deserve it. Last month I didn’t have enough money in my account to pay for my dentist appointment up front so I lied to the receptionist about calling my bank, stood in the lobby and deposited the $25 I had into pokerstars, ripped it into $100 and withdrew to pay for my appointment. How sick and pathetic is that? What the fuck is screwed wrong in my brain and how do I change it? I honestly don’t know why I’m posting this, maybe I think I’ll find closure maybe I just want someone else to read my experience so they don’t make the same mistakes, maybe I just need it off my chest so I can stop living this guilt and shame. But I need to quit and I need help, I’m fearful to do it alone and I can’t figure out why. I feel a fear stronger than any fear I’ve felt before and it’s crippling me, it feels like gambling is my only true friend. I want to stop now. Thanks for reading I apologize for the length but I don’t have anyone in my life I can tell my story too comfortably so maybe the Internet can be that person. Please, don’t gamble.

Questions from a Crypto Skeptic

I come in peace.
I’m interested in cryptocurrency, but many of the claims about its potential as an investment leave me wondering if I’m seeing the same thing others are. I also know I don’t know everything. Instead of shaking my cane at all the youngsters making a fortune with their internet money, I want to see if I can learn more.
Let me also preface this by saying that I’m generally interested in cryptocurrency. I think cryptocurrency is going to be useful, both for its anonymity and for cutting out costs from the traditional financial system (e.g. fees for converting dollars to euros, time spent waiting for transactions to clear, etc.). I’m also intrigued by the potential of smart contracts to automate some transactions, though I think some of the bullish arguments for these are overstated. We’re not going to get rid of contract law.
My skepticism of Bitcoin (and other coins) comes from the idea that it’s going to make you rich, which is the majority of the talk I hear around the topic these days. I’ll lay out why I’m not convinced by the “get rich” case for Bitcoin (and it would apply to any other cryptocurrency). Maybe you all can set me straight. This is all pretty basic, so don’t expect some sort of novel argument. I just tend to see the crypto community dunking on people who claim Bitcoin will fail because it will be hacked or that it will be banned and so on, when some of the basics seem more pressing.
The Currency Paradox. One of the biggest bull cases for Bitcoin is that it’s the currency of the future. But for it to be a functional currency its price has to be stable. No one is going to spend it if it could be worth double or more in a few months, yet people are owning it precisely because they hope for it to double or more in a few months. At some point its price will need to flatten and be boring and predictable for it to be a functional currency. That will neuter the investment thesis. I’m also seeing a lot of related arguments that Bitcoin is the new gold or a store of value, but the same reasoning applies. No one is going to protect their wealth by putting it in an asset that regularly crashes. It may turn into an alternative asset used for diversification, not entirely unlike gold, but it will still need stability.
The Fiat Currency Obituary. You might reason that Bitcoin will stabilize as a global currency when fiat currencies disappear. The logic is something like this: If Bitcoin replaces fiat currencies (~$37 trillion in circulation?) then it will have to be worth several million per coin, making early adopters wealthy in this new system. Now, I can’t “prove” that fiat currencies aren’t going anywhere, but I want to note their demise is far from a certainty.
People have been predicting the end of fiat currencies for decades, long before Bitcoin ever existed. I suspect many people have suddenly found these fringe arguments more convincing now that they have a financial stake in the outcome. Of course, it’s possible these prognosticators weren’t wrong, just early. But your great-great-great-grandkids could wind up saying that about you too.
Governments have a very strong self-interest in maintaining their own currencies, tools to enforce its use (taxes must be paid in the currency), and have militaries to protect their people and secure their existence. While there are plenty of cranks who hate the Fed and think it manipulates the dollar too much, most people are pretty comfortable with their cash. There would have to be something in the order of an interwar Germany hyperinflation or something like the 1997 SE Asian currency crisis, but for the major developed economies, for there to be serious pressure to flee fiat currencies. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but it’s a longshot.
It’s possible Bitcoin could stabilize as a more niche currency, something that solves a specific problem like the obnoxious fees charged for exchanging currencies abroad or something in that vein. That would lower the dramatic price predictions, though. And unless you’re active in whatever area Bitcoin is used in, you’ll still need to convert it to dollars to enjoy the fruits of being early.
It’s Mostly Paper Profits Right Now. Yes, lots of people have gotten rich from Bitcoin, but not everyone drooling at the current valuation can cash out at that price. Some people converted their Bitcoin to dollars during the latest peak and have enjoyed their riches. If a lot more Bitcoin owners decided they’re ready to collect their winnings at $32,000 then the price will crash again. When you see lots of people’s goals for owning Bitcoin is to convert it to dollars to pay debts, buy a house, buy a Lambo, whatever, you realize not every Bitcoin owner will have this opportunity until Bitcoin is a functional currency (see above), which could be never.
You might say the same is true of the stock market, and there are some similarities. Here’s the difference: Companies have assets, including future profits, that backstop their stock’s value. If I was the lone shareholder of Apple I would be filthy rich whether there was anyone to sell the stock to or not. They made around $60 billion in profits last year and that would be all mine. Bitcoin’s value is more speculative and I need more people willing to pay more for it than I did or I can’t realize that value. These people will eventually dry up unless Bitcoin develops more functional value.
As long as Bitcoin remains a speculative asset there are going to be winners and losers, people who cash out with extraordinary gains and people who’ve sunk more money in than they can get back.
It’s Just Math. I see a lot of formulas and mathematical jargon used to justify supercharged price predictions for Bitcoin. That’s all fine, but I suspect some of this is meant to put a scientific veneer on what amounts to guesswork or enforce an insideoutsider dynamic (Bitcoin skeptics just don’t understand math!).
The problem here is that making accurate predictions is incredibly hard, even with an ironclad model and perfect data. It gets even harder when you factor in the uncertainty of human behavior. Imagine the difficulty in trying to forecast the 2032 presidential election or what market share Tesla will have in 2040. You can certainly make an educated guess and there’s lots of data to draw from. But there is always going to be a big “if” justifying even the most complex sounding model. Just because a model spits out numbers doesn’t mean it’s right.
One of the more popular of these is the stock-to-flow model predicting Bitcoin hitting $1 million per coin by 2040. One of the selling points is that it predicts Bitcoin’s price with 95% accuracy. That sounds great. Unfortunately, this is a meaningless number by itself. There’s a lot more behind convincing statistical research than finding a line of best fit between two variables. As any number of p-hacking scandals can attest, finding “statistically significant” relationships between variables, sometimes totally unrelated variables, isn’t hard. I’m willing to wager an enterprising sleuth could find a similar relationship between the log price of Bitcoin and many other variables. In fact, the author of the stock-to-flow post does it in the same post.
What would be more convincing is a strong justification for analyzing a relationship between these two variables with robust statistical tests that rule out other explanatory factors. Even then it may have very little predictive power. Instead, the author plucks a metric from commodity analysis as a proxy for “scarcity,” while simultaneously dismissing the utility of analyzing Bitcoin as a commodity, then does a basic regression between the two variables and voila, Bitcoin will hit $1 million. I wouldn’t put much faith in that analysis. And it seems to be representative of many of the "just do the research" arguments I see for Bitcoin's future.
Based on my reasoning above, my investment thesis in Bitcoin is this: It’s a speculative asset to buy with money you can afford to lose. You can make money from other speculators driving the price higher in the near term, when/if it begins functioning as a currency in the long term (where it could be a niche function like international transfers or could happen well after you’re dead and gone), or as a hedge against catastrophe like a global currency crisis, where you may have much bigger problems. This is not a lot different than a financial roulette wheel: It’s fun to play, but you wouldn’t put your mortgage on it.
Now, where have I gone wrong? Help me see the light.
UPDATE: Thanks for all the replies everyone. There is lots to think about. I can’t reply to everyone so I thought I’d add a few comments here.
It sounds like a consensus here is that Bitcoin is not a currency and shouldn’t be treated as one. Instead it should be viewed more like gold. I mentioned I didn’t find this reasoning particularly convincing in my initial post due to the volatility. It might also be the cynic in me, but the sudden change in narrative from “it’s a currency” to “it’s a store of value” sounded like a rationalization. But I think the analogy to gold u/GSEDAN made was a good one and I see the case a little differently now. I’ve never been interested in investing in gold so I think I overlooked some of the rationale behind it. There’s no doubt it’s retained its value because people believe in it and the same can be true of Bitcoin and other cryptos. I can see some of the value there.
With that said, I’m still very skeptical of the “get rich” claims around it. Gold is a pretty conservative investment, even with a community of very passionate believers. While I think Bitcoin is obviously more exciting, the analogy can only take you so far if you want to make an extreme prediction for Bitcoin prices. I would update my investment thesis for Bitcoin to include that it’s a gold-like asset that can offer you exposure to a unique market as a hedge against other markets (stocks, real estate, etc.) with more speculative upside and risk.
A lot of other people pointed me toward Ethereum as a crypto with more obvious value since it can do a number of useful things. I followed Ethereum with a bit of interest before the 2017 crash but haven’t followed much since. I’ll take another look now. I’m still uncertain of how the utility of the currency translates into price appreciation. u/ExtraExtraMegaDoge and a few others had an interesting discussion in the comments here about this too. I think my question here is if the usefulness of the currency increases the demand for it, which increases the price with a fixed supply, wouldn’t the constantly increasing costs deter people from using it? I have some more to dig into here.
Anyways, thanks again. As I said, I’m interested in cryptocurrency. I first started paying attention to it in 2015 and have casually followed it since then. I even own a bit of Bitcoin I bought during the 2017 frenzy (and wish I’d bought it when I first researched it in 2015!). But as the price rises again I keep hearing more and more about how it’s inevitably going even higher and going to make everyone rich and so on and I’m routinely wondering what I’m missing. So that’s where I was coming from.

Stories from 12 years of Casino Industry

I was asked to make a post about some stories within the Casino grounds so I thought I'd share. I have many so I'll do my best to pick the better ones.
Some back information: I've been a Casino Dealer for 11 years, I've been a supervisor for five years, and I've been a Surveillance Operator for one year. I've worked at three properties, none of which are connected or owned by the same company. I've worked on : Government/Private/Native American owned casinos.

From Hero to Zero.

At my first Casino, I was one of the first group of people who were trained to deal Roulette . After 4 weeks of working 6PM-3AM then doing roulette training from 3AM-8AM (Not paid) , I actually really enjoyed the game and after about six months I became extremely quick at the number game and the pace of the action was steady with very low margin of errors. Young man walks in, cashes in for $500. He buys in for $2 chips and just loads the board. After a few spins and pretty decent hits, he then changes his chips from $2 to 5$ then to $10 and racks his winnings up to $10,000. It was then, five spins in a row, he loaded the board with some pretty gross bets, and every spin I would hit the ONE number with either NO CHIPS on it, or maybe 1 chip , He lost all $10,000 in a matter of minutes. He leaves , and I go on break. After my break I was going back to the same table and wouldn't you know it, the same young man walks in and cashes in another $500. He tells me he just sold his car outside and this is all that he had left. So we do the same deal, buys in for $2 chips, then slowly starts betting $5 chips, $10, $25...and he makes $10,000 AGAIN. Within the next 25 minutes it was straight agony. Every spin, same thing, he would bet $2500 in chips, and win only $250, $400, and after about a half hour he lost it all . Never saw the guy again.
2) Man down
At this property, we are 24 hours for table games. It's currently 5AM , and I'm dealing some $25 Blackjack to this guy. He's probably early thirties , heavy guy. He's sober as can be, but right away I can tell he's been losing. We know how much you've bought in for, how much your down, or up, and I could see he was down $2000+. After about twenty minutes of pure losing, his temper starts to flare.At this point I now have two other guests at my table. Drinking coffee, not saying a word, just losing their money. After losing hand, after hand, this guy looks me straight in the eye, seized up, starts shaking, he can't move. He tries to punch towards me and smashes his stack of chips all over the place and falls backwards to the floor. I call for security, we cannot touch him due to liability . I can't move from my table because, well, liability / casino cash property, all I can do is try to talk to him. As I'm doing so, these other two woman who are sitting at my table just look at me and one says "OK, dealer, cmon lets go " as she taps the table telling me to start dealing and forget about the guy having a stroke on the floor. As security takes him to the ambulance out front, I had to stay behind for a couple minutes and give a statement. I go on break. I come back, and 45 minutes later, he comes right back in with a oxygen tank and keeps gambling for the remainder of the morning.
3) You get a dildo, and YOU get a dildo!
On a late summer Saturday night, we had a large event for these massive muscle guys/strongman competition type thing. After their show, I'm at the roulette table , and five of these boys come over to play. They were absolutely hilarious. They were feeling pretty good, cashed in somewhat large amounts and I could tell this was going to be a fun time. After about a hour of dealing to these guys, it's almost midnight, everybody is pretty hammered , I spin the ball, and all five of these guys take out these god damn (what I can only tell was) two feet purple dildos from inside their pants, and wiping them around in the air. The ladies were just loving it, one of the dildos landed in the roulette wheel and we had to shut the table down to re-calibrate the wheel to make sure nothing had been changed. I just remember that night was so much damn fun, I couldn't believe what I was seeing and I would never forget it.
4) Full Moon
On this day, I was actually training dealers / supervising them on small games like Three Card poker. We opened the table at 10AM, and this older man came and sat down . He played all day. The jackpot was $21,000 and that was pretty high for this table. He played, and played and played. He's one of the players where you know he's wearing a diaper because he's been drinking coffee/pop all day and hasn't moved in eight hours. As the day went on, this man never moved from his chair. Getting closer to midnight, he was aggravated and said "I need to go have a smoke, I'm getting killed in here". He left, and the very next hand, the lady beside him was dealt the jackpot . He didn't say much, but you could just tell he just hated life at that very moment because had he not gotten up, it would of been his hand. The man calmly took his cane , his hat, jacket, coffee, and left. The next morning I found out when he did leave he drove his car straight through his bank and was arrested.
5) Slick Robber
I actually give props to people who can actually pull this off. This story may confuse you so I'll try and explain things as best as possible. A lot of casinos have machines as soon as you walk through the front doors. A man walks up to one of these machines and sticks in HIS $100 bill. He doesn't gamble it, instead he hits the cash out button and gets a $100 TITO ticket where he then takes the ticket to the ATM machine to get his $100. Now remember, his Original $100 is in the slot machine. He then takes the $100 from the ATM and goes back to the same machine, and repeats this process over a hundred times. Essentially he's taking money from the ATM, and loading up the Slot Machine . Now he knows he can't do it too much because if the slot machine gets full of money, the machine will shut down and the slow attendant will have to take all the cash out. So he deposits over $10,000 , then has a small crowbar, he cracks the machine open and makes a run out the front door. To my knowledge he was never caught . But damn, that was pretty smart .
EDIT:
6) Mental Health is a thing.
10PM man walks in to play some high limit BlackJack. This guy knows the game and played well. Dressed nice, drank juice/tea , a little bit of a attitude, cashed in over $10,000. When this man was half way down his buy in, he said something a long the lines of "If I don't win here tonight, I'm going to go set myself on fire." I wasn't sure if he was serious because when people are down, they tend to say a lot of nonsense. I actually left early that night, and from a third party was told he did exactly that in the parking lot. The next day it was clear something terrible had gone wrong in the parking lot .
EDIT:
7) Nothing good happens after midnight
After a busy Saturday night, I was dealing a mix of games, and during this story I was in the middle of Blackjack. I had one young kid (probably 19) sitting in the middle, one older male probably in his later 40's sitting beside him on his right, and I had a really nice couple in their 20's sitting together at the other side. This young kid wasn't playing just sort of watching, and ever time the old man won he would give this young guy some of his winnings. The older man, was a wine drinker, and he had black between all of his teeth, I'll never forget. He's a little drunk but nothing terrible. As the night goes on, the older man goes and uses the washroom, at which point the couple asked the young guy "Oh was that your dad?" and the young guy says "Hah, no I wish!". The couple and I just looked at each other. This old guy, was in complete control over this kid. Absolutely disgusting. The night ends, and I find out the couple called a few of their friends, and they all waited outside by this old mans truck and beat the living hell out of him. 40 years old, sleeping with a 19 year old, completely brain washed . Very weird.
8) That one co-worker where you just wish they would quit.
One of our co-workers, nice guy but had a very big ego and we as employees just sorta left him alone. One day he had enough of the atmosphere and quit. Now usually when you quit, you cannot come back until you paperwork is finalized. How ever, HR was in that day, and he was given the paperwork the very next day. He came in, cashed in $1000, and made $50,000 in about a hour at the Baccarat table. My manager, was extremely annoyed, because now this guy is just mocking the casino and having the time of his life (Thanks for the big tip by the way :) ) and so he decides to call it quits. He wants to ban himself and he wants $50,000 in cash. The casino says Nope, we are going to give you a cheque. Now here's the thing, most business people will take the cheque, how ever you CANT CASH the cheque until the following monday because it's on that day where the funds are available. The casino on the other hand will cash their own check in anytime , because they want you to play. So this guy pretty much said go to hell I want my cash, and he called the police. Police show up, and management promptly gave him the cash.I though it was absolutely hilarious .

9) No good deed goes un punished
I was dealing Three Card Poker, and the jackpot was around $17,000. This old man (a regular) was sitting there all day grinding it out. Super nice guy, always a pleasure to deal to. Well, after hours of playing, he stands up and says "Hey john!, can you come here for a minute?" so his buddy John comes over. He says to John "I need to go take a piss real quick, can you play my card until I get back?" John agrees . John takes the chips and I stop him and explain he can't play his friends chips, he needs to cash in and play his own. And he does. Welp, second hand out and bam, doesn't he win it. The old man comes back and is so happy, he can't believe it. John, took his $17,000, didn't say a word to his "buddy" and walked away. I never felt so much hatred in all my life. Didn't give him a dollar, not a thank you, nothing. The old man sits back down again, the progressive resets to $2500, and he sat there grinding away again.
10) The Top Knot
I had this player , young guy, who was born into a fortune. One of his relatives passed away and left him a pretty big sizable amount of money, so he played poker every single day for the rest of his days. I will add, he IS a good player. I did not enjoy his company just because of the "Know-it-All" attitude, but he was good. We'll call him John. John is 5'10, and well build, with muscle. John also decided today was the day to show off his Top Knot. (google top knot if you're not sure what I mean) So he sits down, and he's absolutely KILLING the table. Every hand, after hand, after hand. And because he's in such a good mood, he's playing any two cards, calling any $500 bet, and he's just dominating. This one guy at the table decided he had enough. He got up, without saying a word and left. A moment later, he comes back in, walks behind John, and takes a pair of scissors , and cuts off his Top Knot. I for one couldn't believe it, dying laughing inside, and it just turned into one big brawl. That was a good day.
11) That one bad seed
One of my best friends who I haven't seen in YEARS ended up being part of the crew. Was kind of nice to catch up. We never really got along as we grew up because he has a very high picture of himself . He wanted that 10/10 woman. A mansion, and a new Corvette. So every month or so we would all go up to the other casino to play. I myself would bring no more than $500, but I couldn't understand how this guy (we'll call him Kyle) was spending THOUSANDS of dollars at the tables. So this wen on for a few months. Well, one day, as we're closing the casino, he and I are in the High Limit room and we're getting ready to close the tables. We are told to take the chips out, count them, put them back, sign this piece of paper and that's it. Well as the supervisor was locking the tray, the piece of paper fell to the floor, so she asked Kyle to grab the piece of paper. As he bends over, a great big $500 chip falls right out of his sock. Kyle was fired immediately , but it all made sense. They offered Kyle a deal where if he replaced all the stolen chips they would not make it public. Not sure how that turned out.
12) If I ever decide to write a book, this will be the last chapter: <3
After working at my first Casino for five years, I met a Indian woman who was visiting from another part of the country. During this time I was explaining a game to her, which honestly I don't think she even cared. She explained she was visiting and sight seeing , and that was that.Well, two years later I ended up moving to the other side of the country and transferred casinos, and low and behold she worked there as a Dealer. We got married , and it's been 5 years.
13) The Tip
One of our tables that we've had for a couple years had a progressive jackpot that had reached $100,000. The dealer at the table was sitting pretty lonely. Nobody really played the game because people knew it was extremely difficult to win the jackpot. My memory is a tad foggy, but you somehow needed to flop the royal flush. This young guy sits down and says to the dealer, we'll call him John. "John, if you pay me that jackpot, I will tip you $10,000" Well John started dealing, and about a half hour into his shift, he F*cking did it. He dealt him the royal. And you know something?This young lad, kept his word, and he made sure there was a audience, and he tipped exactly $10,000. That was a moment right there. That pay cheque was real nice. I think we all got about $500 more than usual. The moment that jackpot was awarded they got rid of the table because the money it was making was not near what the casino wanted. I'm sure there have been bigger tips at other casinos, but that was something special .
14) The Lawsuit
Now this story I'm going to have to beat around the bush a bit due to the nature of what happened. I can't won't answer any questions that you may have on this topic other than what I have to say because it had a lot of publicity . The waitresses at this casino had to wear very thin sexy clothes. Not borderline legal, but it was noticed. One day they called all the waitresses to come in and explained they were changing their outfit to something even more sexier. Now these new dresses were very very borderline legal . The staff said No way. We're not wearing that.So , friday night comes, and the staff work their whole shift, then at the end of their shift were called into a meeting and were all fired. Welp, one of those ladies father was a pretty big time lawyer. Brough the casino to court and won. They won big. Good for them. We had no waitresses for a couple days haha.
Thanks for reading along, I have many more I can add as the day goes on, those were just some off the top of my head. Feel free to ask any questions of the Casino industry. I don't really have many stories about the surveillance department because that's the one area where I can't really say a whole lot due to its privacy and contracts I was and still am under.

3 years without a bet, an everlasting second...

My date of abstinence is January 26, 2018.
SHORT NOTE: I grew up a Lakers fan and on this day, last year, I posted about my 2 year anniversary since my last bet (here is the post if you care to read https://www.reddit.com/problemgambling/comments/eu62q2/2_years_without_a_bet_settle_off_all_my_debts_a/), and a few hours later, it was reported that Kobe Bryant died. What a wild year it's been since then. RIP KB.
Now, for that "everlasting second".
Last month I started watching How I met your Mother. It's a REALLY good show, in my opinion. There's a scene in that show about an "everlasting second" and how time can sort of stand still. You see this in a movie where something catastrophic happens and the protagonist is just standing there in utter disbelief.
And I remember one of the last "sane" bets I ever made, it was during the College football Playoff. I say sane because, after this game, I ended up doing just $40, 10 team basketball parlays to try and get out of the whole I dug myself into. Anyway, I probably only had bet less than 5 games of college football ever before. Was never my cup of tea. But Oklahoma vs Georgia. and Alabama vs Clemson.
I was in ATlantic City the night before on New Years Eve with my wife and my brother and his wife. Maybe only lost a couple hundred bucks. Just pissed off st the night in general. Main reason, I was at the roulette table and had 200 dollars on 17. It’s NYE, the table was packed with people and the dealer wouldn’t spin the ball... must’ve waited about 6 minutes. Said fuck it and walked off the table. 17 hits. Anyway:
I probably only had $20,000 left in my bank account, payday was in a week and I have about 140-150K in debt. I must've deposited about half of that money that day. I had a parlay for Bama and Oklahoma to both win. I did a money-line parlay, because the Juice was better because Oklahoma was a 3.5 point dog and Bama was a 2.5 point favorite. I had about $2,000 on this parlay.
While the game is being played, I am depositing money into my gambling account and playing roulette. As I hit some spins during roulette, I'm taking those winnings and doubling down HARD on Oklahoma. And Oklahoma keeps playing from behind and I can just see the Juice growing and growing as I keep doubling down. CONVINCED Baker Mayfield is going to pull off the upset and make my winning multiply!
All in all, I probably have about 7-8K on the game by itself. The money I was depositing into my gambling account and playin roulette on, I'm actually kind of killing it. I'd put in 2K, win about 5K, put 3K of it on Oklahoma and then gamble the other 2K. Lose it, make another large deposit, until I had only 10K left in my bank account. If Oklahoma pulls this out, I’m probably going to have 25-30k in winnings.
I don’t remember much about that game. Except for an Oklahoma DEFENSIVE touchdown. But I do remember DOUBLE overtime. It's 4th and about 6, and Oklahoma attempts a field-goal. Georgia blocks it. Oklahoma is done. I know the game is over. And I’m sitting there. Frozen. I swear to God it felt like time stood still. I may have blacked out. I may have gone deaf. Like I can’t describe the feeling that I had when that kick was blocked. My TV was as loud as can be and I feel that I couldn’t hear a word coming out of the TV...
Few plays later Georgia scores a touchdown and i know my life is pretty much over. No money, no time to make any more money. Just everything being in flux and on top of that, my phone goes off and it’s my wife.
“I am getting ready to leave work soon.” She’ll be home in about 90 minutes.
25 days later I had to admit everything to my wife. Had I done it on that day, maybe things wouldn’t have gotten as bad as they did. It was really shitty for the first two weeks after I had to tell my wife everything.
In the end, had I told her sooner, obviously life would have been better. I’m grateful I have the wife that I do. She stood by me, we have a great life. Beautiful and healthy baby girl. I’ll say this to anyone who is reading a post on here for the first time to take this advice:
Reach out and talk to someone. If you “think” you have a problem, talk to someone. Make yourself vulnerable and you would be surprised by what the truth can do. Money comes and money goes. You can’t change yesterday, you can only focus on today.
Peace and love... peace and love.

I live in a small mining town in the mountains of Colorado. Someone is building a massive casino nearby, Pictures Included

I grew up in a small mountain town named Eureka. It was founded in the late 1800s during the gold rush, but after the mines dried up the town began its slow descent into decay. Half the houses are empty or abandoned now.
You can see a picture of the kind of houses here in Eureka:
First house
Second house
When a massive construction project began nearby, it was the talk of the town for weeks. Why would they build something in a sleepy dying town like Eureka? It wasn’t until my sister Selene talked to a few construction workers that we discovered they were building a casino.
A casino up in the mountains, over two hours away from Denver. None of us could understand why they’d chosen here of all places. After a few months of work, the casino was done.
I took a picture of the town with the completed casino in the background to the right. The ten-story-structure sticks out like a sore thumb off in the distance.
Town+Casino
After the casino opened, they hired a few dozen members of the town, offering high paying jobs to work as dealers or cleaning staff. I was already employed as a firefighter, but my sister Selene got a job as a blackjack dealer. She’s a widow with two young kids, so the paycheck was a real lifesaver.
Still, something about the situation seemed too good to be true. The jobs over there paid far too well, and the management was far too accommodating. The fire station where I work is located high on a hill overlooking the town, so I began watching the casino from a distance each day.
I had initially thought that the casino was located in a terrible location, but I was apparently wrong. True, Eureka was hours from any major city, but despite that, a bus full of people arrived every morning and left every evening.
One night I was over at my parent’s house and had dinner with Selene and her kids. I asked her about her experience as a dealer.
“It’s Ok,” she said. “Just a little boring I guess.”
“Boring?” I asked. “I’m surprised you don’t have your hands full.”
“Why’s that?” she asked. “It’s like you said, Eureka’s too small. I never have people playing cards. The casino is almost always completely empty.”
I wasn’t sure what to make of that. If the place was always empty, what happened to the people who I’d seen arriving on buses? “I’ve been keeping an eye on the building,” I said. “A bus full of people typically arrives around 9 AM every day.”
“Really?” she asked, looking confused. “If that’s true, I’ve never seen them.
“I can see it from the fire station,” I said. “If you head out for a smoke break at 9 AM, you’ll probably see them arriving.”
“Interesting,” she said. “I’ll do that. If they’re being processed for their organs or something, I’ll let you know.” She laughed.
“Har har,” I said sarcastically.
The next night she sent me a text calling me over. When I arrived, she was nearly breathless with excitement.
“Orin, You were right,” she said. “A big group of people did arrive, but they didn’t walk into my part of the casino. Instead, they all walked into an elevator at the back of the building. I’m not sure where that goes.” She looked thoughtful. “It was weird. They looked… How can I say it? Desperate? Something about the whole situation was very off. I’m gonna check out the elevator tomorrow.”
I told her to be careful, though, to be honest, I was excited to hear about what she discovered. When I visited my parent’s house the next night, I found her two kids there alone. They told me that Selene had never returned from work.
I called all her friends, then all our neighbors, but no one had seen her since she left for work that morning. Our conversations regarding the casino flooded my mind, then a plan began to form.
Early the next morning I walked across town in my nicest pair of jeans and a button-up shirt. I pushed through the door to the casino and saw that Selene wasn’t lying. The place was all but deserted. Three dozen slot machines crowded the walls surrounding a few tables interspersed throughout the floor of the casino. The only players in the whole building were Bob and Donald, two locals.
I walked up to a nearby table where Bridget, a girl I’d gone to high school with, was shuffling cards. She broke into a grin when she saw me. “Hey Orin, you here for a few rounds of blackjack?”
“I wish,” I said. “No, I’m here to ask about Selene. She never made it home last night.”
Bridget’s expression darkened. “Really? Have you asked around?”
“I already called around. Have you seen her?”
She shook her head. “No, our schedules rarely line up. I’ll be sure to let you know if I--” Her eyes focused on something behind me, and she cut herself off.
I turned around to see the casino’s pit boss watching us both. He was a tall thin man in an impeccably clean black suit. When I turned back towards Bridget, she was looking down at the table and shuffling cards absent-mindedly.
“Well, if you hear anything, let me know,” I said.
She nodded, so I turned around and headed for the pit boss. I stuck out my hand. The temperature of his hand was so hot that I had to pull my hand away after a few seconds.
“Have… have you seen my sister Selene?” I asked. “She hasn’t been seen since her shift here yesterday.”
He smiled. “Sir, this floor is for players. You’re more than welcome to head to the tellers for chips, but barring that I’m afraid I’ll have to ask you to leave.”
I stared at him for a long second before stalking towards the door. When I looked back, he was talking with Bridget.
I checked my watch. 8:55 AM, just as I’d planned. I walked around the back of the building and waited as the morning bus pulled around the building. I waited for the telltale hiss of the opening doors and the sound of people descending before I rounded the corner and joined the crowd. None of them paid any particular attention to me as I walked with them into the casino.
The crowd walked through a side door down a hallway to an elevator. Small groups of people entered the elevator as the rest of us waited for our turn. I shot a glance at the casino patrons, surprised at their diversity. There seemed to be people from all different countries and ethnicities. I heard one speaking Japanese and another speaking what sounded like an African language.
My turn came along with a few other patrons in the elevator. A sickly woman hobbled into the elevator beside me carrying an IV that was still connected to one of her veins. We piled in and rode up to the top.
The elevator rose for a few long seconds. I wasn’t sure what I would find, but I steeled myself for something horrible. The elevator’s speaker let out a TING, then the doors opened.
We all walked out onto what looked like a standard casino. Another few dozen slot machines ringed the walls, but on this floor, they were almost all occupied by customers. I took in the scene, confused at why they’d have a ground floor that was almost completely empty when this place was almost--
Selene was dealing cards at a nearby table.
I jogged over and sat down at an open seat. None of the players around me paid me much attention.
“Selene!” I said. “Are you OK? Did you spend the night here last night?”
Her eyes were glassy and confused. She looked up at me with a dumb expression and didn’t respond to my question.
“Selene?” I asked.
“What’s your bet?” she asked me. “This table is for blackjack players only.”
“I…” I trailed off, looking at the players around me. None of them were betting with chips of any kind. “What’s the minimum bet?” I asked.
“Three years,” she responded.
“Three years then,” I said, not knowing what that referred to.
Selene nodded, then began dealing cards. I shot a look down at my hand. King and a 9. Selene dealt out cards for herself, showing a 9. I stood, then leaned forward again. “Should I call the police? Are you--”
“Congratulations,” she said tonelessly.
An almost impossibly warm hand grabbed my shoulder. I spun to see the pit boss I’d spoken to earlier. He gave an impressed smile. “Orin, was it? I’m impressed, truly. Would you mind if I had a word with you?”
I shot a look back at Selene who was dealing the next round of cards. Then I got to my feet, balling my hands into fists. “What did you do to her?”
The pit boss clasped his hands behind his back. “Nothing more, and nothing less than what I’m going to do to you. That is, offer you the chance to play.”
“What the hell is that supposed to mean?”
The pit boss nodded his head towards a nearby slot machine. A woman in a wheelchair pulled a lever and watched the flashing numbers spin. They exploded in a cacophony of sirens and flashing lights. “WINNER WINNER WINNER!” The machine screeched.
The woman in the wheelchair put her feet on the ground and stood up on a pair of wobbly legs that had clearly never been used before.
“As in any other casino,” the pit boss said, “you must wager for the chance to win.”
“She... won the use of her legs?” I asked, feeling light-headed. “Wait,” I said. “I played blackjack just now. ‘Three years,’ Selene told me. What does ‘three years’ mean?” I asked.
“Three years of life, of course. Did you win?”
My mouth felt dry. “I-- Yes, I won.”
He smiled warmly. “Congratulations. I hope you enjoy them. I can tell you from personal experience that watching the decades pass is a bore. Give it some time and you’ll be back to spend them.”
I watched the pit boss’s face. He couldn’t have been more than a few years older than me, and I was in my early thirties. I looked around at the casino. No one was playing with chips of any kind. “So what?” I asked. “I won years of life. That woman won the use of her legs. What else can a person win here?”
“Oh, almost anything. They can win almost anything you can imagine.”
A cold feeling settled in my stomach. “And what do they wager?”
His eyes flashed with greed. “Almost anything. They can wager almost anything you can possibly imagine. Anything equal in value to the item they want in return.” He nodded towards a nearby roulette table.
A man stood by the table, cradling his hands. “Another finger,” he called out. He only had three fingers remaining on his left hand. As I watched, the ball came to a stop, and another finger disappeared from his left hand.
The pit boss extended his hands. “Feel free to try any of our games. Bet and win whatever you’d like.” He reached out and snatched my hand. A feeling of intense warmth passed up my arm to my chest. “There,” he said. “I’ve even given you some house money to get you started. An extra decade of life, on me.”
I ripped my hand away, staring at him in horror. Then I looked back at Selene. Something clicked in my mind. “You offered her the chance to play. What did she want?” I asked.
“Her husband,” the pit boss said. “Quite the sad story. He died two years ago. She wanted him brought back to her.”
“What did she wager?” I asked.
“She wanted the chance to win a soul, the most valuable object in existence. I’m sure you can imagine what she needed to wager for the chance to win it. What she wagered is unimportant. The important question is: What do you want, Orin?”
I stared at Selene with a flat expression. “I’m sure you can imagine.”
His eyes flashed with greed again. “How wonderful. The casino could always make use of another dealer. Feel free to make your wager at any one of our games; I’ll be eagerly awaiting the results of your night. Oh, and do take advantage of our waitresses. We always supply food and drink for ‘high rollers’.” He walked away.
I spent the next few hours trying to decide which game to play. I was going to be wagering my soul, so I wanted the highest chance possible. Slots and roulette were out. I’d done some reading online about counting cards, so I figured that blackjack gave me the best odds.
I walked up to Selene’s table and sat down. “Bet?” she asked with that same toneless voice. “Three years,” I said.
I spent the next hour or so doing my best to remember how to count cards. I knew that low cards added one to my count and high cards decreased it by one, but the casino used three decks. I had read something about how that was supposed to change my calculation, but I couldn’t quite remember how.
Every time I won a hand, I cursed myself for not putting everything on the line. Every time I lost, I breathed a prayer of thanks that I’d waited. And all the while, I kept track of the count.
I had lost fifteen years of life when the count finally reached +5.
“Bet?” Selene asked.
“I wager my soul so you can be free,” I said.
The table around me fell silent. Selene’s eyes flickered, but she showed no other emotion as she dealt the cards. I watched my first card, punching the air in excitement when I saw a Jack. My excitement turned to ash when my second card was a four. Fourteen.
I looked at her hand. One card was facedown, but the faceup card was a King. I swore loudly, staring down at my hands.
“Hit?” she asked. The entire table was silently watching me.
“Hit,” I said, not looking down. The table erupted in cheers. I looked down to see a 7 atop my two other cards. 21. Blackjack.
I looked at Selene who flipped over her facedown card to reveal a 9. 19. I won.
The glassy look left her eyes immediately. She looked around in surprise, then her eyes locked on mine. “Orin?” she asked, then almost immediately began to cry. The entire casino broke out in cheers.
I grabbed her hand and headed for the elevator. The doors had begun to close when the pit boss reached out with a hand to stop them.
“Congratulations,” he said, beaming. He seemed to be honestly excited.
“Shouldn’t you be upset?” I asked.
“Not at all. Casinos love it when we have big winners. It inspires the other players to make larger bets. I imagine I’ll gain two or three dealers before the night is through from your performance.”
“Great,” I said flatly. “Now let us go.”
“Not yet,” he said. “You didn’t just win, Orin. You got a blackjack. And blackjack pays out 1.5 times your bet. You won your sister’s soul and more.”
I stared, not sure what to say. “What are you saying? I won half a soul extra?”
The pit boss grinned wildly. “Just remember what I said. You’ll find living for decades and decades to be a boring experience. After a few centuries, you’ll be back to gamble that half a soul away. Congratulations!”
He removed his hand, and the elevator doors slammed shut.
I helped Selene back to her house. Her children were relieved. I watched them cry, then moved into the kitchen to start making dinner.
It’s been a few days since that experience. The casino is still out there, and buses full of people still arrive. I… I cut my hand pretty bad a few days later. When I checked it an hour later, it had already healed, no scar or anything. I’m not sure exactly what I won at that casino, but there’s no way I’m ever going back.
X

JB's Old Grumpy Bastard Weekend Rant - "This is not investing, this is gambling."

What a crazy week it was in the stock market! I'm not going to give a recap on what happened, if you missed it, you're an idiot, go away.

But I am going to talk about that oft-repeated phrase by long-time investors who have never in their many years of investing seen or imagined what happened. "This is not investing, this is gambling."

There was even a reasonable and well-thought out article by Brett Arends on the subject in "An open letter to Gamestop's "Reddit Army" featured here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-open-letter-to-the-reddit-gamestop-army-11611871658

What he says is true about people who get involved in the stock market making risky plays, they lose a ton of money, think that's what investing is, and they pull out, never to invest again.

That squared with my beliefs because that's one thing we're trying to preach here at the TLSS subreddit - get invested early for the long term, and more opportunity will befall you to make money.

But make no mistake about it - our brokers have tons of ways for us to try to make money that have absolutely nothing to do with investing, and everything to do with gambling. So why is it such a surprise that so many treat investing like gambling and then walk away from it frustrated when they lose?

Let me define first, what Investing and Gambling mean to me.

Investing is paying money to own something, with the intention of that thing appreciating in value so that you can make money off that future value. That doesn't have to be stocks, maybe you own a pre-rub Optimus Prime from the original 1984 Transformers and you kept it in pristine condition in its original box expecting you can sell it for over a grand (which you totally can.) I've never really understood why people would say things like, "I'm going to start running, so I have to go invest in a good pair of running shoes." Ridiculous! Maybe in some sense you are "investing" in your health by running a few days a week, but those shoes are not going to appreciate in value, so it's not an investment, you dumb shit. Maybe if you had the original Air Jordans and have never run in them, but that's the only way to "invest" in footwear.

Gambling is paying money not to own anything material, but simply for the chance to turn that money into more money. Classical examples are playing Roulette and betting on Brady and co. to beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55.

To me, the main difference in Investing v Gambling in the stock/bond/etf market is the ownership of something that you can sell/gift/will to someone, or lose in a divorce settlement to your cunt ex. Betting on Seattle to cover against the Rams so that you can turn 100 dollars into 250 is not exactly something you can will to your kids. The money, yes - the bet, no.

Investing as we are doing in TLSS means we are buying shares of ownership in the hopes that smart moves made to grow the business will increase the value of that company and therefore the value of our shares. That's what I have always understood to be the primary feature of buying stock and investing, and even though there is a risk of financial loss, owning something is what makes it an investment. But outside of buying stock, what does your brokerage allow you to do?

Let's start with "Short Selling." What is it? Essentially, you borrow shares from a brokerage on the belief that the value of the shares will go down in price, sell them immediately, and you pay a fee that is a function of the share value and the amount of time for which you borrowed it. When the price goes down and you feel that either you are ready to cash in or you don't think it will go down any further, you "buy" them, give them back to the brokerage, and that becomes your buying price. So if you shorted 100 shares of Game Stop at $480, and executed the short sale when it went down to $240, you made $24,000 on the short sale, less whatever the fees were. During this entire process, did you actually ever own anything? No, you didn't. You borrowed it, with every intention not to keep it. By the time you did anything that indicates ownership - buying - you had to give it back! You paid anywhere from .3% to 30% per annum (depending on how difficult it is to short) and during the time you borrowed it, you didn't even qualify for the dividends on it (if there were dividends!) What's worse, your short selling manipulated the price of the stock. That's right! When you short sell, the first thing that happens is the transaction gets recorded as a sale, which makes it appear that there less demand for the stock than there actually is. Then when you "buy" it after it's gone down (covering) it looks like someone bought it. So it's actually a form of rigged gambling, like the dealer slipping the Ace of spades to his buddy under the table. Sure he won't necessarily win, but the odds are now more in his favor. And that's the thing about gambling; as long as the probability of winning is neither 0 or 1 - it's still gambling if there is any chance you can lose. And since you never really owned anything, by definition, short selling isn't investing, it's gambling.

Then, there's options trading. I don't have a particularly deep understanding of all the particulars of options, like the designations of naked, uncovered, unmarried, etc. But I do know in a general sense what calls and puts are.

A call is an option, but not an obligation, to buy a stock. Options trading in OTC stocks is essentially nonexistent, but let's take TLSS as an example. Let's say you wanna buy some TLSS stock but not sure it's going to go anywhere in the next 3 months. So you place a call option to buy TLSS at the current price 0.0457, which will be called the "strike" price, anywhere in the next 3 months. For that 3 months, you pay the "premium" for that right to buy. If the price stays flat or goes down, you don't have to buy it, and all you've lost is the premium. But if it does go up, you can now buy at the 0.0457 price no matter how high it goes. You pay to minimize the risk, but until you actually buy it, you don't hold anything of value except a "right," and that right exists solely in contract between the seller and the buyer. That's not owning something tangible, and you can still lose money, hence, that's gambling. Puts work the same way but are the exact opposite. Again, you are paying a premium, but for the right to "short sell" stock at a certain price below the current price. This is protection from typical short selling because in short-selling if the price keeps increasing, there's no limit to how much you can lose. However, with a "put," once the PPS rises above the strike price, you are not obligated to short it and all you've lost is the premium. Given that we've already defined short selling as gambling, then buying put options, a derivative of short-selling, is therefore also gambling. It's just that the put option limits your risk to the premium paid.

There are all sorts of variants of options and other types of hedges that I don't have the specific knowledge for, but it seems like only 1 feature of all this is actual investing - buying stock and holding it for the long term. That's it! That's the one thing that is an investment. EVERYTHING ELSE - Puts, Calls, Short Selling, Day trading, Swing Trading, Wife Swapping (just making sure you're still paying attention) and just about everything else that is not buying and holding IS FUCKING GAMBLING. Most of what our brokerages enable us to do is in fact gambling, so why is it even a surprise that so many people use their platforms to do it? And even worse, why is it that when the peasants get good at it or find a way to beat the rich at their own game, do these dildo-lickers start getting all fucking bitchy about it? Quit preaching to us you hypocritical cocklamp, all the shit you do on a regular basis is gambling. This is just super-high-risk balls out stupidity, but that doesn't make what the Gamestop reddit army did any less gambling than what you do. It's just idiotic. Call it what you want, but get the fuck off your high horses, you intolerable shitweasels. I'll sink your fucking yacht in shark infested waters and tie a sea lion to your balls.

tl;dr: Fuck you, you don't get a tl;dr. You want a short post, go to twitter, you illiterate piece of shit.

EDIT: I would hope I was clear in my limited knowledge of the more advanced types of trading, but please be advised I'm no expert, and this post was intended more for entertainment than anything else. I can seen how things like calls can be used to mitigate risk, and there are probably other types of trading I don't even know about that would qualify as investing. My point is simply that a lot of it isn't, and it fosters the false belief in some people that all investing is gambling, and the mistaken inference that when rich people say "this is not investing, this is gambling" that this type of behavior isn't completely encouraged by the stock market and one's brokerage, because it totally is.

Do NOT buy Quantumscape (QS) - unless you just want to gamble with -EV

Ok so this post mirrors my post from almost 6 months ago when I posted about Hertz the day it reached its top of 6+ dollars after already announcing bankruptcy (it went from like 50 cents to 6+ dollars). You can see my submitted post history for that. Since this is an options post, I'll talk about something that rarely anyone ever talks about but impacts options pricing - the borrow rate - so that it's an informative post too even if you aren't interested in QS.
For the record I'm posting this as QS is 105 AH 12/21 so I can look back in 3-6 months. First, I'm not short QS so I don't want to hear some comment below saying you are just desperate because you are taking a huge loss. I'm posting this as a warning/advice just like when I posted about Hertz because at this point it's actually extremely negative expected value (EV) to go long QS through call options/shares.
First the IV is ridiculously high. There could be many situations that play out in which you can buy calls, it goes up 10%, and you will end up down. Second, one of the reasons for why anyone would buy QS is to collect the borrow rate, which is insane. However, most brokers don't give the customer this borrow or if they do, don't give the full borrow. For RH, you get none of this borrow, so this alone makes this very -EV at these price points. Finally, the most obvious reason, it's quite clear this stock is overvalued as it won't even have any revenue or sales for a few years. It's similar to NKLA actually (look at that chart when it briefly hit 90 earlier this year).
The stock is undergoing a short squeeze with high borrow rates, which is causing this spike, but historically these stop pretty fast and when it pulls back, all those calls/shares will lose value. There's like plenty of examples of this just this year, and the goal is obviously not to buy at the top. The main issue is also when it pulls back, it doesn't usually EVER bounce back up. See the NKLA bagholders at 90, HTZ bagholders at 6, KODK bagholders at 55, etc.
In the case you just wanted to just gamble, it's actually not a bad stock to purely gamble. However, there are plenty of better gambles out there that should return a higher expected return. Second, gambling is fine but we all know what happens when you play roulette in the long run. Sure you can hit that 23 number you bet on, but the more you push it, the quicker all of that goes away. So that's why this is a fair warning. You can gamble and you might win even for a short time period, but most will be left holding the bag. And when they hold the bag, they hold it all the way down.
I also wouldn't outright short this right now unless you want to sell a long dated call spread/naked OTM long-dated call. As I mentioned, the IV and borrow are extremely high, so a short term long puts strategy will have an extremely tough time printing. Furthermore, it's somewhat hard to short the stock with this high borrow, and that borrow is embedded in puts too. However, longer term, it's clearly a short at these levels, but you have to do it in some more unique ways as I mentioned above.
Finally, if QS spikes up from this 105 AH number, I guarantee you there will be some idiots who are gonna be posting here in the comments section about how they were right/I was wrong (see the HTZ comments). I'm ok with that. That means I didn't call the top exactly perfectly, but as I said, you can revisit this post in 3-6 months. Ironically on HTZ, the day after I posted, it did actually go up that day (to 6+), got a lot of shit comments, and I'm sure 100% of those guys lost money since it has never even seen anywhere close to that price ever again as the next day was the top. So same situation here. Just a fair warning. If anything, at least you learned how borrow rates affect options pricing and short positions.

Ranking games to do + how long it took to do. 170$ in 2 weeks

Feb. 2 Daily HUT Content - What is new?

Hey, it’s Coooolin!!! It’s Tuuesdayy! Terrific Tuesdaayy! Was it one for you though?! Tell me about your day, I’m interested! What did you do!? Let me know, doown beloow!!!
Here’s the new cards for today, thanks EA!

Silver Master Icons

Howie Morenz - 91 OVR - MTL / C - DIS² , PP²
Mats Sundin - 91 OVR - TOR / C - DIS² , T²
Scott Niedermayer - 91 OVR - NJD / LD - BAL² , SPE²
These require 9 Icon Collects — 6 if you have 88 OVR Scott Niedermayer
—

Fantasy Hockey Upgrades

Sean Couturier 93 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Ivan Provorov , and Philippe Myers + 2 Gold Collects
Mark Stone 93 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Alec Martinez , Shea Theodore + 2 Gold Collects
Cale Makar 92 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Gabriel Landeskog + 1 Gold Collect
Brock Boeser 91 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Braden Holtby + 1 Gold Collect ... - wow I look dumb getting Vancouver guys
—-

Primetimes

(More to come , will update)

NHL

Leon Draisaitl - 95 OVR - EDM / C - LTL¹ , GLA¹
Antemi Panarin - 93 OVR - NYR / LW - PP¹ , MAG¹
Jeff Petry - 89 OVR - MTL / RD - HOW¹ , SH¹
Jamie Benn - 88 OVR - DAL / LW - WM¹ , WH¹
Brandon Carlo - 86 OVR - BOS / C - SH¹ , GLA¹
Joel Farabee - 83 OVR - PHI / LW - SPE¹ , T¹
Miles Wood - 83 OVR - NJD / LW - LTL¹ , WM¹
Yanni - 83 OVR - TBL / C - PP¹ , MAG¹ ... do you hear yanni or laurel
Artturi Lehkonen - 81 OVR - MTL / LW - HOW¹ , WH¹
Chris Driedger - 79 OVR - FLA / G - 6’4” / 208 lbs - BAR¹ , SPA¹
Michael Mcleod - 78 OVR - NJD / C -DIS¹ , GLA¹
Philipp Kurashev - 78 OVR - CHI / C - BAL¹ , HOW¹
Yakov Trenin - 78 OVR - NAS / C - DIS¹ , T¹

Other Leagues

Matt Moulson - 80 OVR - BEA / LW - H and S¹ , PP¹ ... this man was a GOAT
Miguël Tourigny - 79 OVR - ARM / RD - SWA¹ , SPE¹
Francesco Pinelli - 78 OVR - RAN / C - SPA¹ , LTL¹
Connor Roulette - 78 OVR - TBIR / LW - H and S¹ , MAG¹
Semyon Der- - 78 OVR - PET / C - BAR¹ , WM¹
• • • • • • • • • • - - - - - - - - - • • • • • • • • • • • •

Packs Available

23H / 40M remaining
Ultimate Choice Pack
and
• Elite Players Pack - 37.5k C / 750 P
10 items , all Gold Players, with at least 8 80+ OVR Players
• Elite Pack - 25k C / 500 P
10 items, with at least 5 80+ OVR Players
• Prime Pack - 10k C / 200 P
10 items , at least 5 Players with at least 3 Gold Players and 2 NHL Players

P.S.

• Rivals Resets Today — 5pm EST
• Silver Master Upgrade for Howie Morenz, Scott Niedyy, and Matss Sundinn!

Hockey News Today

• Today in Hockey History
• NHL Rumours

Stock Market News

• Stock Market Rises
• AMC and GME update

Other News

• Willie sees his shadow
• Today’s Horoscope
——————

What’s to Come?

• SB Season Reset - Wednesday at 5pm EST
• Rivals Rewards - Wednesday at 5pm EST
• HUT Champ Rewards - Wednesday at 6am EST
• SB Rewards !! - Thursday at 5pm EST
• More Event Cards!! - Friday at 5pm EST
—————

Summary of the day

Quick Read
Best Forward of the Day - PT - is LEOONN DRAAIISAITLL OVR 95 with the syn LIIGHTTT THE LAAMPP and GLAADIIATORR
Best Defence of the Day - PT - is JEFFFF PETRRRYY OVR 89 with the syn SHUUTT DOWNN and HOWIITZZERRR
• Rivals Resets Today - where did you place?
———— —— ———

Important Notice

Make today the best day ever. Do something you wanted to do for a very long time. - within rules / legally - . You never know if tomorrow is blessed for you or not. Never take it for granted - its a blessing! Do something today that makes you feel way out of your comfort zone — because when you get out of your comfort zone, you’ll be super happy you did!

Interested in Stocks?

EA’s Stock Price, after hours - Feb 2
$ 141.81 (usd) —- Currency Converter
we looked at the stock at $137.54 usd
—— That is a difference of ( $4.27 / 3.10% ) —
You can listen to EA’s Conference Call here
Disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor. It is your money, please do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for your money. This is *not** advice. I added this section for an added educational purposes only. Thanks*
—— —— —— —-

NEED A SOUNDTRACK TO LISTEN TO?

I made this for everyone. I’ll update it whenever I feel like it, but its been often!

DO YOU GUYS LIKE THE PLAYLIST?! For those not listening; How are you not listening to this playlist already!?
Comment songs to add, and please give feedback! It’s much appreciated!!
I currently have “Smells Like Teen Spirit” by “Nirvana” stuck in my head.... which you can play, recently added to the playlist!
Sidenote - How do you guys like the playlist!? I have a friend who makes music...and I really want to surprise him with some new people listening to his music... if you wanna help me, please click Here!! it would mean a lot to me!!
———-

Sites To Bookmark!

If you click here you will be redirected to bilasport. Bilasport is the best Online Streaming site for your entertainment needs for all sports! (Not affiliated)
A great streaming source recommended by NHLStreams is SurgeSport. Click on Hockey and you’ll be good to go!
Want to make your dream team, and show others what you’ve been working on, and much more? I will redirect you HERE!.
Here’s a helpful pack guide for you! Click!
Want to know how the market is holding up? With a simple TAP! you will be on the newly fresh made website for the HUT market, made by one of the guys on the sub!
.... what do the stats on a card mean? Is my card I want / pulled good? Click here to find out!!
When is my favourite team playing? When do they play!? Here you can click on this link, and tap on your favourite team. From there, tap “Schedule” . You can add this to your homescreen on iPhone by clicking the square with the upwards arrow, scrolling down, and tapping “Add to Home Screen”
——- —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —- —— —-

Fighting a Gambling Addiction?

Don’t feel scared to click here. Winning is SO much louder than losing. Know that you are NEVER alone. We are all here for eachother, and it is never too late to get help. I am here for you.
This is a VERY important thread, especially if you are new to HUT. Here!
——-
33 / 365
—— —— —— —- —- ——- —- —— ——
Thanks for reading.
I’m always welcome to feedback, please let me know what I can improve on.
If there’s anything missing, please let me know!
Take care, happy gaming! TODAY IS GROUNDHOG DAY!
• Coolin Killin It
(Life is like a puzzle, you just have to find the right piece.)

Do NOT buy Quantumscape (QS) unless you just want to gamble with -EV

Ok so this post mirrors my post from almost 6 months ago when I posted about Hertz the day it reached its top of 6+ dollars after already announcing bankruptcy (it went from like 50 cents to 6+ dollars). You can see my submitted post history for that. Since this is an wallstreetbets post, I'll talk about something that rarely anyone ever talks about but impacts options pricing - the borrow rate - so that it's an informative post too even if you aren't interested in QS.
For the record I'm posting this as QS is 105 AH 12/21 so I can look back in 3-6 months. First, I'm not short QS so I don't want to hear some comment below saying you are just desperate because you are taking a huge loss. I'm posting this as a warning/advice just like when I posted about Hertz because at this point it's actually extremely negative expected value (EV) to go long QS through call options/shares.
First the IV is ridiculously high. There could be many situations that play out in which you can buy calls, it goes up 10%, and you will end up down. Second, one of the reasons for why anyone would buy QS is to collect the borrow rate, which is insane. However, most brokers don't give the customer this borrow or if they do, don't give the full borrow. For RH, you get none of this borrow, so this alone makes this very -EV at these price points. Finally, the most obvious reason, it's quite clear this stock is overvalued as it won't even have any revenue or sales for a few years. It's similar to NKLA actually (look at that chart when it briefly hit 90 earlier this year).
The stock is undergoing a short squeeze with high borrow rates, which is causing this spike, but historically these stop pretty fast and when it pulls back, all those calls/shares will lose value. There's like plenty of examples of this just this year, and the goal is obviously not to buy at the top. The main issue is also when it pulls back, it doesn't usually EVER bounce back up. See the NKLA bagholders at 90, HTZ bagholders at 6, KODK bagholders at 55, etc.
In the case you just wanted to just gamble, it's actually not a bad stock to purely gamble. However, there are plenty of better gambles out there that should return a higher expected return. Second, gambling is fine but we all know what happens when you play roulette in the long run. Sure you can hit that 23 number you bet on, but the more you push it, the quicker all of that goes away. So that's why this is a fair warning. You can gamble and you might win even for a short time period, but most will be left holding the bag. And when they hold the bag, they hold it all the way down.
I also wouldn't outright short this right now unless you want to sell a long dated call spread/naked OTM long-dated call. As I mentioned, the IV and borrow are extremely high, so a short term long puts strategy will have an extremely tough time printing. Furthermore, it's somewhat hard to short the stock with this high borrow, and that borrow is embedded in puts too. However, longer term, it's clearly a short at these levels, but you have to do it in some more unique ways as I mentioned above.
Finally, if QS spikes up from this 105 AH number, I guarantee you there will be some idiots who are gonna be posting here in the comments section about how they were right/I was wrong (see the HTZ comments). I'm ok with that. That means I didn't call the top exactly perfectly, but as I said, you can revisit this post in 3-6 months. Ironically on HTZ, the day after I posted, it did actually go up that day (to 6+), got a lot of shit comments, and I'm sure 100% of those guys lost money since it has never even seen anywhere close to that price ever again as the next day was the top. So same situation here. Just a fair warning. If anything, at least you learned how borrow rates affect options pricing and short positions.

Ultimate Casino Cashback Guide - Earn over £500 - Every Offer Explained!

This guide aims to outline all of the best gambling cashback offers available over a range of sites, following this guide you should be able to make over £500 in cashback
Note - Cashback often takes a while to payout, bear this in mind when completing offers as you may have to wait to cashout your earnings
When completing these offers don't chase any loses as the cashback will give you a profit with nerly every offer
A short review of each site and some referral links
Topcashback - Cashback will show as tracked within a few days, can take a few weeks to become payable, in some cases even longer, asides from gambling they have great offers for car insurance and mobile phone contracts, worth taking a look to save some extra money!
Ref - Extra £5 when you make £10 cashback
Non-Ref - No reward
Quidco - Much the same as Topcashback
Ref
Non-Ref
Minimum payment - £10
Ohmydosh - Faster Payouts but less offers
Ref - Extra £1
Non-Ref - No reward
Minimum payout - Any
Cashback Earners - A lesser known site in need of a fresh look, this site also has some bad reviews, referal income is paid to the site on a monthly basis with the dates for each site being different, offers don't seem to show as tracked until the website receive their payment, cashback should appear in your account within 1 month of completing an offer. Cashout amounts are specific, its best to build up a balance and then withdraw. Payment takes around 3 weeks.
Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5
Non-Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5
Minimum payout is £20
Payment Proof - Payments for all sites can be seen here, quidco isn't shown as i have signed up for all the casinos on offer through topcashback

How to Maximize Profit - IMPORTANT - READ THIS

For the majority of these offers you want to play blackjack following the chart found here
Any blackjack game will do, look for a normal version of the game at the site you are playing on and make sure it is a non live game as the hand sizes will be lower.
When playing blackjack there will often be more than one spot that you can bet on, allowing the player to bet more than one hand at a time, Its important to only bet on one spot at a time as it reduces the variance of the game and will ensure you get the maximum return possible from the game, stick to £1 hand sizes when playing and dont be tempted to bet larger amounts as you will be getting a nice amount of cashback from every offer
Through playing blackjack this way the player will get a return of around 98%, meaning for every £100 staked you will lose around £2. If you make a loss on a casino site after completing the required wagering amount, withdraw your remaining balance, don't chase loses as the cashback will make up for loses and give you a profit in most cases.
All offers are updated fairly regularly, make sure to check the terms for each offer as information in this post may become outdated. Also check for other offers every now and then as new casinos are added!

TopCashBack Offers - £400+ Profit

Topcashback Referral - Get an extra £5 - See the Ref Link at the top of the page!
If you dont already have an account at top cashback, you can sign up through my referral to get an extra £5 added to you account once you make £10 cashback
Lottoland - Cashback £15
Add £11 and play 11 separate £1 hands, following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Betfair Casino - Cashback £70
Note this is not the poker offer
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Quidco are offering £100 for this offer
Party Casino - Cashback £26.5
Deposit and play 30 single £1 hand son blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Tombola - Cashback £24.5
Deposit £10 and open the tombola roulette game, choose a £1 chip size and choose 5 spots, repeat this twice, withdraw any remaining balance, you will likely lose money here but the cashback will give you a profit
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add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
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Deposit £10 and get a £40 welcome bonus, just play bingo with all of your funds and hope to get some wins, bonus has 4x wagering requirements.

Quidco - Cashback £100+

Quidco don't offer a sign up bonus, find my ref link at the top of the post if you want to help me out!
All of the offers on quidco are much the same as topcashback, the only offer worth noting is the betfair casino offer which pays £100
Betfair - £100 cashback
Add £100 and play 100 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.

Cashbackearners - Cashback £180+

Sign up Bonus
Get a £6.5 sign up bonus, think this works with or without the ref link, links are at the top of the post!
To find these offers just search for casino on the site.
All of these offers state that you only need to make a deposit, its best to play through the deposit 1x to ensure that the cashback is paid.
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Casinosuperwins - Not recommended, bad site, awful support
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Add £15 and play through £15 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
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Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
DrSlot - Cashback £10
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Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
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MFortune - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
Thanks for reading, hope this of use to some people, happy earning!

Why you should learn poker and game theory (LONG READ)

Hello everyone! I have only been on Reddit for a few months but I learned so much from it that I figured I should try and give back to the community. English is my second language and this is the first time I ever write a full-length article, I hope you will enjoy reading it and I would be very thankful if you could provide some feedback about my writing, about the topic, or about anything else really… So here goes!

Why you should learn poker and game theory:
My story is similar to that of many: I learned about the game 10 years ago (during the golden age of online poker) when some friends of mine invited me to play a home game. Although I initially thought of poker as just another game of chance akin to playing slots or roulette in a casino, I quickly came to realize that there is a lot more to it as my more experienced friends would repeatedly get the best of me during these home games, which led me to start watching videos and reading strategy books to improve my skill… Little did I know it’d be the start of a journey that would impact many different aspects of my life way beyond the game itself, as most of the fundamental principles learned through poker can be applied to your decision-making outside of the game, especially when it comes to money management and investing. Now, let’s dive into a few of these principles:

- Risk management (i.e. Bankroll management)
When learning about how to be successful playing poker, the first big piece of advice most people come across is bankroll management or BRM. To understand BRM, you must first realize that poker has a lot of variance: you might be vastly ahead in a given hand but there is almost always a slim chance that you will lose in the end if one specific card hits. This implies that you will sometimes lose even though you were a 99% favorite, and that you will sometimes get unlucky and lose 2, 5 or maybe even 20 such encounters in a row. THIS is variance. It doesn’t mean that you played bad or that you made bad decisions, but rather that you got unlucky. Over time you will have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks, and these will average out in the long term… It’s just the way the game goes.
Now that we understand variance, let’s get back to BRM. What is it exactly? Let’s say you are the best poker player in the world but you only have 1000$ that you can EVER use to play with. Taking your whole 1000$ on one table and multiplying your stack at an exponential rate might seem like a good idea. Surely nothing can go wrong since you’re the best player in the world right? But variance can be a bitch ;) Even if you’re the best you will lose regularly and you will sometimes get unlucky, it’s just part of the game. The correct move here is to apply BRM, which means only using a small % of your available capital for each game you play in order to reduce the risk of going broke. Using only 100$ per game would already be a lot safer, but you still run the risk of going under on a streak of bad luck. If you only allocate 10$ per game you play, then it becomes virtually impossible for you to ever go broke, even on a huge streak of bad luck. Sure it’s not as exciting and you won’t be making money quite as fast as you could, but this is the way to go to make sure you don’t go broke…
This approach to risk management translates very well to investing:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose. Once the money is on the table it’s as good as gone, which is why you should only use your “spare” cash and never invest with your living expenses or worse, borrow money to invest.
- Diversify your investments. There is always a chance, however slim it might be, that you will lose most of your investment. This is why going all-in on a specific investment is generally a bad idea (this applies particularly well in the crypto space).
Proper BRM allows you to make sure that you will come out ahead in the long run if you play well, which basically comes down to making more good decisions than bad ones. But that’s assuming you don’t let emotions come in the way of your decision-making, which brings us to our next point…

- Emotional management (i.e. Handling tilt/Positive mindset)
Nobody likes losing… In the same way we enjoy winning because of the dopamine rush, we feel bad when we lose which is totally natural. Overcoming this and avoiding tilt (irrational decisions made out of angefrustration) is an essential skill for any successful poker player. You might play a sound game of poker and apply good BRM, but you will still lose if you let your emotions get the best of you.
After a loss, rather than being angry and frustrated, you should evaluate your decision-making. If your decision-making was good, you just got unlucky and you shouldn’t worry about it since you are playing for the long run (remember that variance teaches us that anything can happen in the short-term). If your decision-making was bad, you need to learn from your mistakes and move on. The key here is to always have a positive mindset: making mistakes is part of the learning process and should be seen as an occasion to improve. Being angry and ranting, on the other hand, rarely result in anything positive.
Again, this translates very well to investing:
- Don’t be impulsive, don’t let your emotions cloud your judgment. You should not FOMO because the price is pumping, nor should you sell because of FUD or price corrections. If you believe in a project, short-term price changes (did I hear someone say “variance”?) shouldn’t bother you.
- Don’t get stuck up on losses. You bought the top and it crashed immediately after? You sold the bottom right before a huge rally? Don’t let this bother you: what’s done is done and you just need to move on and make the best of your current situation.
- Have a positive mindset. Anger and frustration lead to nothing. Yes you could have bought in 2009 when you first heard about it, hindsight is always 20/20. Stay positive and keep learning/improving yourself.
The good thing about all this is that it goes way beyond poker or investing. Being aware of your emotions and how they affect you, learning how to handle losing even when you were “supposed” to win, etc… All this can tremendously help you in all aspects of life by making you less impulsive and more rational in your decision-making. Now, this leaves us with our last fundamental principle of a sound poker strategy:

- Basic stats and probabilities (i.e. Expected value/Odds)
To become an accomplished player, you will inevitably have to learn about these simple mathematical tools that poker players use all the time in their decision-making process, such as odds and expected value. To make it very simple, the expected value (EV) of any bet is (REWARD \ WinRate - RISK), meaning that if you can bet 1000$ with a chance to win 10k$ half of the time, your EV is *(10000\0.5)-1000 = +4000$**. Obviously these are great odds to take as long as you have enough capital to overcome variance. But things would be very different if the odds of winning were only 5% as your EV would then be negative *(10000\0.05)-1000 = -500$.*** Now this is clearly a bet you should not take…
Now that you know probabilities, statistics and game theory are useful decision-making tools in poker, guess what? They are also extremely useful in investing! Even better, the study of game theory with problems such as the “Byzantine generals” or the “Three prisoners” has been, along with cryptography, the foundation on which blockchain technology was built, enabling the trustless and decentralized services that are about to revolutionize our world…
Assuming this was enough to pique your interest and make you want to dig deeper, I’ll just add that just like the other topics we discussed and as you might have guessed, this translates very well to investing and also to pretty much anything in your life:
- Learn how to break down complex situations. Logical thinking paired with a statistical approach will help you break down any complex problem into several easier problems, making the whole thing a lot easier to approach/comprehend.
- Base your decisions on a methodical and rational approach. List every possible outcome along with its associated upside/downside, estimate the probability of each outcome to occur and make the best decision based on the information available.
My point here is that risk management, emotional management and statistics/game theory are all awesome tools that you should definitely add to your arsenal. Not only will it improve your money-management and investing, it will also be beneficial to your decision-making and to your life in general. Of course poker is not the only way to learn about these, but I personally found it to be the best practice ground to refine and improve them, which is why I strongly encourage you all to try it out and study the game.
I hope you enjoyed the article, and I wish you all a happy 2021 bull run! May we all come closer to retirement and financial independence!

TL;DR: more than a game, poker is a school of thought. It teaches you to be reasonable, to assess the risk of every single choice you make, to overcome you emotions, to play the long game rather than the short game, to make informed decisions, etc… This has made me a lot wiser in every aspect of my life, which is why I strongly encourage to try it out and read about poker strategy.
Edit: I couldn't crosspost from cc so I just copied the post as I figured it is relevant here too :)

Day 1. Threw years of my prime down the drain.

Martingale for Props

Has anyone here ever tried using martingale for props?
I know the system is flawed for a system like roulette because past results do not have an impact on future results. Just because the wheel is red now has no effect on the next spin. 13 straight reds can happen. When it does someone will get cleared out.
In the Nfl you could bet on the next play being a run or a pass; but the ravens bills game was a heavy sequence of run run run run run for the ravens and pass pass pass pass pass pass for the bills, and that could have knocked someone out if they bet too heavily.
May be a bit of an exageration , but draft kings lets you use $0.10 as the smallest unit for a bet. in basketball a guessing the next basket is a 2 pointer pays -250 and that the next basket will be a 3 pays +180
if you martingaled the next shot being a 2, a bet of 10 cents pays out 12.5 cents, you lose, next basket you need to turn a profit of at a minimum the 10 cents you lost, optional if you want additional profit.
.10 lose bet, .25 next time , lose bet .63 , lost bet 1.58, lose bet 3.95 , lose bet 9.88, lose bet $24.70
I'm sure everyone on this book knows how martingale works and I won't type out further than that, but everyone gets the point. I know that martingale is a flawed system. Everytime it's been tried before in the past it has failed. Not to say "But this time it's different" the example I gave only goes to a max loss of $41 if 7 straight 3 pointers were made. I only recently started watching the NBA so everything I say about it is antidotal based off a very small sample size.
I will admit that going through all of this for something that only makes 2.5 cents is practically nothing and not worth the time for most people. If you use a starting point of $1 it would go 1,2.50, 6.25, 15.63, 39.08, 97.70 still not that crazy of an amount of money in my mind.
but it does feel like a relatively """"SAFE"""" return. Although I guess part of it in my mind must be victim to some sort of fallacy because eveyone that I've ever met or spoken to has given me complete confidence and reassurance that martingale is a flawed system and is doomed to fail in the long run. I just don't see the error in this system
I can see the bias in myself and the error in judgment of thinking "there is no way that red will come up 10 times in a row" , but as it relates to the NBA it just feels incredibly unlikely to me that 7 straight 3 pointers would happen. for the first set of data the maximum risk you would have is $41.09 and at 2.5 cents per win you would need 1643 2 point baskets to break even on a $41.09 maximum investment.
The average NBA Game this season averages between 12-13 3 pointers. I know that martingale isn't broken by average results, it's broken by one outlier that spoils the whole thing.
Has there ever been a crazy streak in basketball that has had like 10-15 3 pointers made? I don't follow it all that closely and I did try to look up the stats but I had a difficult time seeing most 3 pointers in a row.

Also Excited for the return of the pepper when darts comes back

Evolution games provider

Bovada interestingly pays significantly more rewards points for TRUE ODDS parlays vs straight sports bets.

Why the Big Short Squeeze is INEVITABLE

First, let me start by saying I am a dumb ape and you shouldn't listen to my financial advice.
Here's my take on what is going to happen next week, in my humble ape opinion.
This week, we got our asses kicked. The week before, things were pretty awesome until RH restricted trades. It is my opinion that this happened to buy time for the hedges. They needed Saturday and Sunday badly. Thursday and Friday's trade restrictions were like the QB taking a knee to kill the clock before the next half starts.
With that time bought, with the stock price manipulated with ladder shorts, Hedges had Saturday January 29th, and Sunday the 30th to figure out a solution. Restricting trading was good, and allowed for the ladder short to bring down the price. However, the stock was massively shorted, 140% by some accounts. Melvin had stepped in it big time, and now him, and his minions had to stay up all night or EVERYONE would be out of a job. The secretary answering the phones, the son in law who got the job cause his wife's daddy is important, the cleaning lady... Everyone would be out of a job. So they got to work.
Short squeeze was inevitable. How do you as a hedge get out of that hole - reasonably legally - without dying?
I think what they did was said, "Look, we have 200 million in shorts. We're going to drive the price down as low as we can. Ladder short it to death. Now, we could wait until it is low enough to pay down and that is that... Or you know what you guys... We can get Darryl his Super Yacht. We can't stop the squeeze, but we can get in on it and go to the moon too!"
So (IMHO) they created a new financial product. Sort of like when you play roulette and bet on black. Instead of losing you say "Wait, I retroactively bet on Red, and cause I know red won, I'll go in on it big!"
I read about synthetic longs. That's what got my gears going. The problem right now is that they have to pay up for those shorts. Late January we saw how they had to sell off other assets to pay for GameStop. This week we got our asses kicked.
Imagine a new product that operates like so: A long call option that says "I will buy this stock if it goes higher at a current cheaper market price" and using that long call option to cover the short put.
It's like a bookie saying, "Okay, you shorted Gamestop, pay up" and you're like "But it's me! Melvin! You don't want my second family to go hungry, do you? I'll pay for the short... But I will use a long option call contract as collateral... The Short Squeeze is coming! We'll all be rich!"
Now, in theory, if such a product existed, wouldn't it drive up the price? It should. The problem: IT HAS NOT BEEN BOUGHT YET.
So what does this dumb ape think is going on?
A short squeeze is still coming I think. The price is being manipulated and brought down. When it is low enough, the hedges will go in, spike that price as high as possible, and any losses related to the shorts, will be offset by the gains of the long call options. In a way, they'll be forced by the short contracts to buy shares from themselves which they get by selling their long options and making a huge profit.
If we actually go to the moon next week, I think it will be because some way... Some how... The Hedges created a new product that allows them to play this strange roulette game where they retroactively bet on red after having lost their bet on black. Then, knowing what the result would be, go BIG.
They spent two days coming up with some sort of solution in the Hamptons. It has to be somewhat legal, and ultimately screw us all while preserving their wealth, status, and place in the world. The only thing worse than losing money, is losing it to us! Retards, Apes, and Autists. The Dumb Money controlling all the money.
I think they changed the rules, froze their shorts in a limbo that allows them to use longs to offset losses. "You need to convert those shorts into shares bought at market price... What's that... You want to turn it into a new product? Okay!"
Imagine buying a product where you short a stock, lose, and then say "You know what, let me buy a long option call, and if it is higher than the short, I win. If it is lower than the short, then the short stands and I win again!"
Heads I win, Tails you lose
I think the hedges did this. I think if you have stocks... Hold on to them, and wait until the stock gets very low. If I am right, then we can expect the hedges to execute, and send the price to the moon!
I think this story is not over yet.

What would you do if you were a hedge fund struggling to survive when faced with certain demise? Would you not try to circumvent disaster and turn it into glory?

[TRADING PSYCHOLOGY] Nobody ever takes a trade thinking it's going to be a loser

I spent several hours this past week coaching traders at my prop firm. And something caught my attention…
Every single one of these traders needed help with the same thing.
It has to do with what I call the “reverse” gambler’s fallacy. And it’s something many traders struggle with.
Today, I’ll show you how to get this common obstacle under control… and start earning more consistent returns year after year…
What Most New Traders Get Wrong
The obstacle I’m talking about is trading psychology. It’s a very broad term used to describe the emotional side of trading.
Almost all new traders believe the most important part of trading is being able to analyze markets like a pro.
On the surface, this logic makes sense. After all, if you can reliably forecast which direction to take on a trade, the money should take care of itself… right?
What these novices don’t yet understand is that something special happens the moment you commit your money to a trade…
You start feeling things.
Whether it’s fear, excitement, anxiety, or a mix of all three, no one is immune to these emotions. And they can wreak havoc on even the best planned trades.
You may be able to call the direction, the timing, and the target price to perfection… But it can all be for nothing if you are unable to stick to your trade plan.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen traders plan out a great trade… But then ended up somehow losing money, or not being in the market when the move they’d forecast played out.
So how do you beat your emotions to become a better, more consistent trader? It comes down to the three key parts of trading. Let me explain…
The Three-Legged Stool of Trading
I think of trading as a three-legged stool.
Your methodology/strategy for picking trades is the first leg. Your risk- and trade-management strategy is the second leg. And the third leg is your trading psychology.
In my experience, most traders focus on the first leg (strategy and methodology), and they neglect the other two legs. But the stool needs all three legs to stand on its own.
Over the years, I’ve honed my own proprietary method to develop well-rounded traders. Here’s what I’ve learned…
The first fundamental building block of a profitable trader is to establish a proven strategy/methodology you can use to identify good trades. In my experience, everything follows from this foundation.
How you manage your risk and your trades should be determined by the strategies you employ. Your trading psychology likewise will be influenced by your approach to risk and trade management.
I’ve seen other trading instructors assign arbitrary percentage values to the three legs of the trading stool. Usually these values are divided up like this: 30% to the level of importance on the analytical strategy, 30% to risk and trade management, and 40% to trading psychology.
But I don’t believe that any one leg is more important than the other. And yet I’ve found that, more often than not, traders neglect risk/trade management and psychology.
So how do you stop neglecting these two important areas to become a more well-rounded trader? That’s where our reverse gambler’s fallacy comes in…

Time to Ditch the Casino Mentality
There is one block that seems to stop traders from progressing to working on the other two legs.
That is, they don’t know how to flip the switch from thinking about their trades as individual trades in a vacuum… to thinking about them as a collection that relies on a statistical edge to net a profit.
Most traders run into this problem at some point in their careers. And if you’re frustrated with your trading right now, chances are you may be struggling with this, too.
It’s known as the casino mentality. And it’s the same mindset that amateur gamblers will take with them into Caesars Palace or the Bellagio.
It doesn’t matter if they’re seated at the blackjack table or standing over the roulette wheel. Most gamblers believe that the hand or spin they are about to play is the opportunity to hit a winner.
After all, if the roulette wheel has landed four black spins in a row, the next one surely must be red, right?
In reality, the chances of the roulette ball landing on black or red is even, at about 47.4% each. This means each spin is independent of the last.
This is also known as the gambler’s fallacy. What’s interesting is that I’ve observed a kind of reverse gambler’s fallacy from many traders…
This occurs when a trader, who does in fact have a statistically proven strategy, goes on a losing streak… And then instead of continuing to trust their strategy, they abandon it altogether.
How to Avoid the “Reverse” Gambler’s Fallacy
I saw this logical fallacy in effect this past week during one of my coaching calls.
The trader I was coaching had recently taken a technical setup that simply did not work. He was convinced he had done something wrong and wanted my help in improving his analysis.
But his analysis was great.
He didn’t do anything wrong in identifying the setup, which was textbook in nature. But the setup looked so good that, when it resulted in a loss, the trader was convinced that he was the problem… That he did something wrong.
The lesson I imparted to him, which I now want to pass on to you, is this very simple truth…
Nobody, and I mean nobody, ever takes a trade thinking it is going to be a loser. Every single trade you take will be because you thought it would make you money.
Despite this feeling of confidence, out of 100 trades, you’d be lucky to win 50% of them.
That’s why a great trader is not defined by what percentage of their trades end up as winners or losers. A great trader is defined by whether or not they are net profitable after taking 100 trades.
If you win roughly as many trades as you lose, but your winners make you 2x or 3x the amount of money you give back on your losers, you will end up with a nice profit at the end of the year.
Remember, nobody ever takes a trade thinking it is not going to work out. This is why it is absolutely crucial to abandon the idea of thinking about your trades as individual trades.
Instead, start taking a more data-driven, statistical approach to your trading. What do I mean by that?
Keeping a longer-term perspective on your trading is the key to longevity in this business. What your numbers look like over the next 100, 200, or 300 trades is far more relevant and important than losing your cool because you lost a handful of trades in a row.
Of course, to be able to make it to 300 trades, you must have a rock-solid risk management plan in place.
I don’t see gamblers at the casino take a professional approach very often. It’s rare to see someone bet small and stick to the odds on every play. It’s far more common for gamblers to be all over the place with the size of their bets.
They may start off betting small, but after winning a couple of hands of blackjack, they get overconfident and take an outsized bet. Sure enough, on that next hand they go bust while the house just happens to hit blackjack.
This is how casinos make money from gamblers. And it’s how the market parts amateur traders from their capital.
No doubt, it takes a lot of hard work and discipline to make the transition from amateur to professional. But, I promise you, the rewards make it all worthwhile. Until next time.
Regards,

can you win money playing roulette video

Albert Einstein supposedly once said: “No one can win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.” Although I wouldn’t normally question Einstein, this... You can’t beat roulette with gambling systems, but you can through dealer signatures, wheel bias and gadgets. Out of these, dealer signatures is the best route to go because it’s both legal and still relevant. Assuming you can spot a dealer signature and win consistently using the system I covered above, then you could win over $100 per hour. If you win, the money will go into your casino account for you to enjoy or cash out. Know Your Limits. Just like any type of real money gambling, you want to make sure you know your limits and do not wager more than you can afford to lose. While it is certainly possible to get lucky and win money while playing online roulette, it is not a Advantages and Disadvantages of Using the Labouchere Roulette System. If you want to make money using one of the many betting systems for roulette, you will want a method which is relatively easy to use. And this is one of the very few issues we can find with the Labouchere – it does require you to write down your sequence of numbers. If you Many people are enticed by the game of Roulette and specifically is it possible to win at roulette everytime. We’ll, the answer is no , but here's how you can increases your chance of winning: Find a Single Zero (European) Wheel: cuts the house advantage in half Most roulette tips websites are designed to promote online casinos, not to help you win roulette. They give inaccurate and harmful information, which spreads to other websites. So it’s hard to find accurate advice. I’ve been been a professional roulette player for over 20 years. You can play Irish Riches on 888casino for free and win real money, no deposit required. At first, you need to sign up with 888casino, and you get $88 to play Irish Riches amongst other select Can I win at roulette? Yes, and for this you need to choose a licensed online casino that conducts an honest and transparent game, while it has a high percentage of return - in the range of 95-98%. Beat European roulette or the American variety, you can get a large amount of money through various strategies. Firstly, consider winning gradually over a long period of time. You play with small bets, and perhaps win five thousand dollars over a few months. When it comes time to cash out, a reputable casino will still process your transaction. But they may restrict you from playing roulette in the future. Such a restriction may occur even before you attempt to cash out. When choosing a reputable online casino, one of the better jurisdictions is the USA. You can see some casinos that accept US players at Although roulette is a game of chance, you can win big money by playing high-risk, single number bets which pay out better than group or combination bets. Single pockets pay out 35/1 for example

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WIN every SPIN ... ROULETTE WINNING TRICKS - YouTube

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If you can play russian roulette with the universe, but its only a 1 in a million chance of destroying the universe each time, and you win money if it doesnt destroy the universe, then how much money would it have to be to get you to play 1 time?

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WIN every SPIN ... ROULETTE WINNING TRICKS - YouTube