A daytraders guide to currency trading in PoE (long post)
Good day, Exiles! Long time reader, few times poster here. With so much interest in the stock market this past week I thought I’d share some real life currency trading strategies - translated to PoE - to help you get rich! This guide is mostly meant as fun and educational, but if you wanna try your hand at this, feel free. This guide is very long (sorry!), and also contains a little math and a few financial terms (I have tried to keep both at a minimum). So let’s get started with a few mechanics and market fundamentals of the PoE market:
First, most of these strategies are based on Fx-trading (foreign exchange) and centered around making arbitrage profits. What is arbitrage? It’s being able to exploit the differences in price of the same asset in different forms (or markets, but since PoE only has a single market this is not relevant). On top of that, arbitrage profits are guaranteed, there is no gambling involved or making predictions. When you execute the arbitrage trade you are in profit.
Second, arbitrage does in theory not exist on perfect markets. But is the poe market perfect? Nope, far from.
Third, I’m sure you are all familiar with the theory around supply and demand so we’ll not go deep into that however this also applies to PoE. But what’s interesting about PoE is that we have an endless supply (of most things) and unlimited demand (of some things). We use this to our advantage.
Fourth, a difference from real life markets is that buying and selling larger amounts of an asset in PoE raises the price. You could in theory argue that the same applies to the stock market for example but then we’re talking about hundreds of thousands of shares while in PoE these larger numbers are in the 10s and 100s and can be acquired by anyone.
1. Exploiting the bid/ask spread
Theory: In foreign exchange, market makers buy and sell currencies at what is called the bid and the ask price. They bid one price to take the currency off your hands, and they ask another price to give it to you (you’ll see this in airports for example). The actual price of the currency is somewhere in between. This spread is how foreign exchange firms make all their profit. Description: Ever tired selling and buying exalted orbs? We can all agree that the price of an exalted orb is 80 chaos, however when buying one we seem to sometimes be paying 81 chaos. And when selling for chaos perhaps we only receive 79 chaos. This gives a bid/ask spread of 2 chaos. To benefit from this price difference we have to act as the market maker by SELLING our currency instead of exchanging (buying) it. This plays directly on to the fact that there is an unlimited demand in the market. Execution: Instead of visiting the trade site and proceeding to whisper sellers you act as the seller by listing your currency at a slightly higher price than it’s worth. Never be the buyer! Profitability: Low (but rises with high volume, see section 5). Works for: Mainly chaos/exalt
2. Pure arbitrage trades
Theory: In real life you find pure arbitrage trades by noticing price differences on currencies or assets on different markets. For example, you could buy Mexican peso in the US market and instantly sell it in the London market should there be a price difference. Description: Arbitrage trades in poe can be done with any currency that has either a divination card or a vendor recipe. It’s quite simple, take the chaos-exalt currency pair as an example. What you do is simply buy divination cards like The Saint’s Treasure or Abandoned Wealth for chaos orbs. The cards are essentially exactly the same thing as parts of exalted orbs. The Saint’s Treasure currently trades around 14-17c (minimum stack size 3). So by buying 10 of these at the lower price levels (let’s say 15c), we get two exalted orbs for the price of 150 chaos. Proceed to instantly sell the two exalted orbs for 80 chaos each, and by doing so make a 10 chaos arbitrage profit. Execution: Buy divination cards that give exalts, fusings, alterations, regrets, scourings (at a lower price than the actual value of the card) - turn in the cards, sell the currency from the cards on the market for chaos. Alternatively, using the vendor system, you buy Orb of Augmentation, Jeweller's orb or Chance orbs in the market at a price that is lower than ¼ (the vendor price) of an Alteration, Fusing or Scouring respectively, then exchange these with the vendor and sell the refined currency in the market for chaos orbs. Profitability: Medium, requires some math and some time. Works for: Anything that has a divination card or vendor recipe and a price discrepancy.
3. Exploiting cross-rates
Theory: Cross-rates are a triangulation method used in order to make an arbitrage profit on Fx-trading. By taking a currency pair like USD/GBP and involving a third currency, a “middle hand” like the Euro, you can make an arbitrage profit by exchanging USD into GBP, GBP into Euro and Euro back into USD. In the real world discrepancies occur occasionally but are very small and adjusted quickly. Description: How do we calculate cross-rates in PoE? Well, exactly how we do it in the real world market ofcourse. With math and the following formula: A/B * B/C = A/C. The answer in this calculation is what the price of an asset should be. So let’s do some math with Chaos orbs, Exalted orbs and Alterations as the middle hand. A = Chaos, B = Exalt, C = Alteration A/B = 80/1 B/C = 1/320 Which gives us a theoretical price of A/C (Chaos per Alteration): 80/1 * 1/320 = 0.25. Buying alterations for chaos currently costs about 0.22-0.24c per alt. So we have a discrepancy from what the price should be. Execution: We sell 1 exalt for 80 chaos, we buy alterations at the price of 0.24c per alt which yields us 333 alterations. We then proceed to sell 320 alterations in the market for 1 exalted orb. Our profit is 13 alterations = ~4 chaos. Profitability: Medium-High (but complicated and time consuming). Works for: Chaos orbs and exalted orbs along with a third currency.
4. Carry-trades
Theory: A carry trade is a trading strategy that utilizes the difference between interest rates in different countries. Let’s say the USA has low interest rates and Britain has high interest rates. You borrow USD, exchange for GBP which you deposit in the UK and let the money grow with the british interest rates while you pay the low interest on the USD you borrowed. You then sell back the GDP to USD in the future using a forward contract today (this is called hedging your position). Your profit is the difference between interest rates minus the fees from the short forward contract. Description: This exact method does not really translate to PoE as we don’t have any interest. However with some game knowledge you can still utilize carry trades early in the leagues by investing in various things like Orb of Alteration. In the first week of any league chaos orbs are scarce and everyone wants them. So you sell yours for Alterations (which was trading at 7:1 the first week of the new league). Deposit the alterations in your currency tab and sell them back to the market one week later to the current 4:1 price. Execution: Invest early in currencies that will become more expensive the longer the league goes on. Let time (our interest) do the work for you. Profitability: Very high (but these kinds of trades are limited to early league) Works for: Alterations, expensive div cards, expensive prophecies.
5. Volume trading (aka “flipping”)
Theory: Volume trading basically revolves around using high volume to make small gains (in percent) become substantial in nominal value. Description: Remember the bid/ask spread-exploit? What if you sell your exalted orb for 81 chaos and then again proceed to sell 79 of your chaos orbs for 1 exalt. You’ll end up where you began with 1 exalt but also an extra 2 chaos orbs. Now imagine following this pattern 100 times and you have made 200c. The secret to get rich from this is using more than 1 exalt. If you start with 20. You’ll make 40c profit, at least, as you are now a bulk seller you can increase your spread to 3c, so you’ll make 60 chaos, from flipping your exalts one time. Do it with 100 exalts, and you’ll make 300 chaos, or 5 exalts. Execution: Sell chaos for exalts and then exalts for chaos and then chaos for exalt. Use a slightly highelower price for the conversion. Use high volume and print chaos orbs. Profitability: High (if you got the volume). Works for: Chaos/Exalt mainly.
6. Value creation
Theory: This is quite different from the rest of the strategies but creating value by refining a product or raw material is essentially the business model for many, many, companies. So why wouldn’t it work in PoE right? Description: The idea is buying raw material, enhancing products, and selling the finished product at a higher price. But remember; we don’t gamble. So for example, Shavronne’s Wrappings is selling uncorrupted for 38 chaos right now. However a 6-socket version of the chest is selling at around 70 chaos. So we could theoretically buy 350 jewellers orb for the current market price of 21 chaos. Use the crafting table to 6-socket our Shavs with our 350 Jewellers orb and voíla; we made a profit of 70-38-21=11 chaos orbs. Execution: There are a large number of things you can buy, improve and sell. 6-socket chests as in our example. Prophecy items (require base unique, prophecy and a map) usually make a fine profit as well. I won’t go into more detail but value creation is something you can just always keep in mind. Profitability: Medium Works for: Gear, prophecy uniques, jewels affected by divine orbs, alternative quality gems and more! Edit 1; Some typos. And I wanna mention once again that these strategies work best if you trade in bulk (high volume). An average player would probably make more currency from just mapping. However, it can be very usefull know some of these mechanics, even if you don't utilize them.
Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words, continuing in the footsteps of daprice82. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives. • PREVIOUS • 1987 FUTURE YEARS ARCHIVE: The Complete Observer Rewind Archive by daprice82
Some major news to get through before we reach the Great American Bash and Summerslam. WWF has announced their July 31 card in Milwaukee, which will see Hogan return to face Andre. This looks like it’s going to be a tester for a whole series of matches in the fall. Savage vs. DiBiase for the world title, Honkytonk Man vs. Duggan for the IC title, and Demolition vs. the Bulldogs for the tag titles round out the major matches. In what is surely a total coincidence, this show comes one day before the NWA’s debut show in Milwaukee with one of their big Bash shows.
As for the Great American Bash ppv, Dave’s fairly certain it’s on track to be the fourth biggest grossing pro wrestling event in history. No real news on the card, but they have attempted to explain the tower of doom match and it’s pretty confusing, but they also haven’t clarified who’s going to be in it. Dave says they’ve made improvements to their promotion of the event, but he has some critiques. “The Price for Freedom” is a goofy tagline to stick on it. The fact that they haven’t really given a top-to-bottom accounting of the card is a bit more concerning, though. Dave also worries that they might be trying to cram too much into their 3 hours, given that the typical NWA match requires more time to do what it needs to do than the typical WWF match, and that could cut into the Luger Flair match and make them rush it.
Dave noticed a difference in how WWF and NWA promotion in the local Cable Guide works. Cable Guide is sent directly to people with cable, so that’s your potential audience when you’re selling ppv and having direct access to them through advertising in the magazine seems like a no-brainer. When WWF has a ppv, there’s usually a full-page ad with all the matches and photos of the big stars, usually at the front of the issue. Dave found the Bash advertisement on page 30, and it was just a paragraph of text that reads: ‘The Great American Bash ($15) Each year, the National Wrestling Alliance streaks across the country holding grudge matches, settling old rivalries and initiating new ones. This year, you’re invited to watch as the Bash presents for the first time ever the triple-cage “Tower of Doom,” matching Ric Flair and Lex Luger.’ He then found another paragraph on page 164: ‘Gill Cable presents The Great American Bash from Baltimore on Sunday July 10 at 4:00 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. See Ric Flair, Lex Luger, The Midnight Rider, Tully Blanchard, “Gorgeous” Jimmy Garvin and Precious, The Midnight Express and other top stars from the NWA.’ Dave’s just baffled. The card’s been set for months, the ads don’t mention any championships or try to hype FlaiLuger at all, and the one time there is mention of a match, you’ve got two matches conflated. So for some viewers, they’re going to see the show and say that they got something they weren’t advertised. This is some real crappy promoting work.
We finally have an answer to the most-asked question of the past month: Owen Hart is starting with WWF by the time this issue reaches readers. He’ll be under a mask on the third-string tour and will probably make his tv debut along with Terry Taylor on the upcoming tapings on July 13-14. On the one hand, it’s a given that Owen’s match quality will suffer because he won’t be able to work with the same level of worker he had in Japan or Canada. And yet, if they market him well, he could become a big deal for WWF. They don’t have another like him. Dave compares him to Snuka, who was small and yet was one of the most over guys of the past decade all for one move, and Satoru Sayama, who was smaller than Owen but still one of the biggest names in the business in the early part of the 80s. But Sayama needed a Dynamite Kid or a Bret Hart or a Black Tiger to play off of. Hart’s going to look small in WWF, but it’s possible to avoid accentuating that to the point the fans disinvest.
WWF’s ppv records are dust, because Mike Tyson vs. Michael Spinks drew a 15 buyrate and grossed $30 million, demolishing Wrestlemania 3’s ppv numbers. This is mostly boxing stuff and we’re here for wrestling, but really interestingly Dave thinks that if Tyson and Hogan were to do a thing together, it’d be bigger than anything either could do against another opponent (and to think, a decade later the WWF did get Tyson in for an angle with their top guy). Obviously, this will never happen because WWF is in a secure position where they don’t feel the need to put their wrestlers in situations they can’t control. The other lesson from this fight that Dave hopes the Crocketts are paying attention to is that closed circuit is a dead end - this fight got next to nothing in closed-circuit, despite having far more hype than Wrestlemania behind it.
The Great American Bash tour has begun, and the early shows have drawn well and that’s as expected. With all the gimmick matches and something like 11 War Games set for the tour, they’ll be drawing well, but not so well that we see multiple shows with gates in excess of $250,000 as we have in the past.
Dave’s not clear on the details, but new developments have emerged in the Turner buyout of the NWA. It looks like the JCP stockholders aren’t all in agreement about selling the company. Jim Crockett wants to sell, David Crockett doesn’t, and Ole Anderson is trying to become a key player and sway wrestlers into leaving to start their own company or maybe partner with Turner themselves, which feels like a bit of a long shot. Anyway, Dave promises updates as he gets them.
Some discontent among the NWA roster as they’ve learned that the payoffs for the Bash ppv won’t be arriving for several months. The date they’ve been told is October 1.
[Memphis] The Lawler vs. Von Erich title for title match on June 27 drew 4,000 fans. The match had interference, and after they ran off the heels, Von Erich requested to continue the match and it ended in a double count out.
Jimmy Valiant is back in Memphis for a bit and seems to have finally left the NWA. It seems the only reason he was in the NWA as long as he was was because he was waiting for that big payday that they’d intended to have happen in May and which will now be in October once the company gets the money from the Bash ppv. Just tired of waiting.
[Stampede] Joshi wrestlers Mika Komatsu and Yumi Ogura are coming in for a three week tour. Unfortunately, they won’t be on tv because their dates coincide with the time frame in which Stampede isn’t doing new tv tapings.
Last week there was that weird finish with the Stampede North American Title match between Chris Benoit and Johnny Smith, and it has finally been clarified. They’ve announced that rather than a reversal of the decision, the belt has been held up, and the two had a match under English rules on June 24 (five minute rounds to a finish), with Smith superplexing Benoit to regain the title. On the same show they did some kind of tournament for the tv title, but rather than having advancing rounds of the tournament, they had a panel of judges award to the winners of the matches, and Steve Blackman got the most points and was awarded the title.
Jerry Lawler still has conflicting bookings for July 16. AWA has him facing Curt Hennig in Las Vegas, while WCCW has him facing Kerry Von Erich in Kansas City with both titles on the line. It’s unclear which he’ll do.
Billy Jack Haynes’ OWF appears to be on the verge of death. Several wrestlers have left and a bunch of shows have been canceled. At some point before the June 24 show, Haynes dropped the title to Kevin Kelly, meaning they’ve had the title hot potato between guys five times in the past month. A young Vince Russo is surely eyeing this promotion closely and taking notes on how to book title changes.
The June 24 issue of Tokyo Sports reported a rumor that Inoki is selling New Japan to Ted Turner to be part of a new international NWA. Dave doesn’t give credence to the story, but he does think it would make a lot of sense for one party to own promotions in both the U.S. and Japan because it would facilitate talent flow very easily to keep things from getting stale. Dave thinks this is just Inoki trying to start some rumors to get attention back on himself. There’s still talk of him wrestling Hogan on August 8, but yet again Dave just doesn’t think this is going to happen (it’s not going to happen).
Speaking of New Japan, Tatsumi Fujinami is getting the rocket strapped to his ass. He pinned Riki Choshu to regain the IWGP title on June 24 and handed Vader his first pinfall loss in Japan in his first title defense two days later. They’re scheduled for another rematch on the next tour, so Dave thinks they might put the belt on Vader since he’s lost to Fujinami three times in a row now, and Vader will drop the belt to Inoki on August 8. Not quite, but we’ll get there. Also on the June 24 show, Owen Hart dropped the jr. title to Shiro Koshinaka.
The June 19 New Japan tv show had a very interesting match. Choshu beat Yoshiaki Fujiwara in a 12-minute match in front of a crowd that was decidedly pro-Fujiwara. It’s highly likely Fujiwara will be joining UWF when his contract expires in April, so no surprise in Choshu winning. What was interesting is that Fujiwara made Choshu work a more mat-based style, which Choshu is really quite good at when you can get him to actually do it. Anyway, the fans seem to have out smart-marked themselves, because as Dave puts it “when Choshu gained the pinfall with the lariat, the place went totally silent because the fans who were there ‘believed’ that Choshu couldn’t legitimately beat Fujiwara and thus the pinfall was for the political reasons we spoke of earlier and the good match became a sham in their eyes.”
In All Japan Women, Bull Nakano earned a title shot against Chigusa Nagayo for the world title on June 26. She won it in a tournament, and the match took place on July 2, though Dave hasn’t got a result yet.
In JWP, they’re going full hype train for Shinobu Kandori vs. Devil Masami, and this report gets kind of weird. Masami is coming out of retirement and has gained some weight, and Dave compares her thighs to those of Doug Furnas, saying she now has the biggest thighs he’s ever seen in wrestling. Really, Dave?
Hulk Hogan will be returning to his WWF tour schedule after he wraps taping for No Holds Barred on July 30. He’s only going to be doing the A-show house shows and tv, so Dave thinks the smart move is not to put the title on him any time soon, especially if he still draws well without the belt. Next Wrestlemania is the earliest Dave would consider putting the belt back on him. Looks like his first major feud is going to be with the Big Bossman.
Dave got a chance to watch the DiBiase vs. Savage cage match from the last Madison Square Garden show and gives it 4.5 stars. He says it’s the best match in the garden in years (the last one of that quality he can remember is Slaughter vs. Sheik in a boot camp match in the summer of 1984). Dave’s not generally a fan of WWF cage matches and thinks they spent too much time trying to escape, but says you can’t deny they went all out. DiBiase and Savage have been tearing it up so much it’s got some people wondering if WWF is going back to a more traditional style, but Dave notes that it only looks that way if you only watch the main events of the MSG shows. The undercard is awful, and the other big matches like Andre/Duggan and Beefcake/Honkytonk aren’t good at all. So no, they’re not putting a renewed emphasis on match quality or workrate.
USA Network has scheduled a three hour WWF special for July 18. That’s going to be a special Prime Time Wrestling.
Jerry Lawler’s AWA title defense against Austin Idol in Continental had an interesting twist. Paul E. Dangerously came down with an injunction and said that he was allowed at ringside because his previous contract with Idol stated that Dangerously would serve as Idol’s manager should he ever get a world title match. Then Dangerously worked on Lawler’s behalf against Idol, even though Lawler acted like he didn’t want anything to do with Dangerously. The finish had Idol get Lawler in the figure four, but Dangerously pulled the referee out and hit him with his phone. Meanwhile Eddie Gilbert came out and threw fire in Idol’s face (and missed, but they went with it anyway).
GLOW is looking for new investors to film a new season in the fall. That means they’re in pretty bad shape.
Roddy Piper will be filming a sequel to Hell Comes to Frogtown. It’s going to be called Frog Wars. Well, they do eventually put out a sequel (Return to Frogtown), but they recast Piper’s role. So, I guess we’ll see how this doesn’t work out.
In the latest news on Bruno Sammartino and his beef with the WWF, WWF has decided they’re going to call Billy Graham the “Living Legend” now. We’ll see how long that lasts until Billy’s next beef with the company.
AWA still has bookings where Curt Hennig is listed as AWA champion. It’s been two months since he lost the belt. They also still have the Rock & Roll Express listed on some cards. If you’re ever wondering why Dave has such little to say about AWA that’s nice, it’s this stuff.
In the pointless trivia department, Miss Elizabeth’s maiden name is Hewitt. Now you can stump your friends.
Bob Backlund was interviewed by a Japanese magazine and indicated some level of openness to wrestling in Japan. He said the NWA was out because he wouldn’t make the money their top guys get. He said both UWF and New Japan have contacted him, so we’ll see if that goes anywhere (wait until December, we’ve got something).
Bruiser Brody was scheduled to wrestle Otto Wanz for Wanz’s version of the world title later this week. Something seems to have gone down and the deal might not be working out, though.
Back before the Powers of Pain jumped to WWF, the Road Warriors gave an interview published in the July 5 issue of Weekly Pro Wrestling. Let’s read what they said:
That’s right. We’re going to work for the WWF. But we can’t say when for sure. New York wants the Road Warriors really bad. It’s not that we don’t like their style. We don’t give a damn about what they do in the ring or how they promote the card. The bottom line is what they can offer. Sure we’ve got a lot to offer, too. We are happy with All Japan. They take care of us really good. If we can’t come back to Japan, we won’t go to the WWF. Nobody can tell us what to do. Nobody and we mean nobody can boss us around. Right now, we are under contract with the NWA. This is the official commitment and we are not about to break it. Thena gain, anything is a gamble to a certain degree. You just have to leave all your options open.
Koji Kitao was televised doing training with Larry Sharpe and Joe Frazier in wrestling and boxing. This drew an 11.5 rating in Japan, which is more than wrestling currently gets. Unspoken conclusion: whoever gets Kitao will be getting a boost in viewers.
As of the latest show in the Texas Sportatorium, here’s who holds the belts in World Class. Kerry holds the world title. Kevin holds the Texas title. Kevin and Kerry hold the tag titles. Kevin and Kerry and Michael Hayes hold the six man tag titles. Guess that theory that Ken Mantell’s booking wouldn’t be pure Von Erich ego stroking was wrong.
The Crocketts had been heavily plugging July 5 as the first day of ticket sales for the Seattle Bash show on August 3. Well, fans lined up that morning to buy tickets and found there were no tickets on sale. Turns out they hadn’t gotten the Washington State commission to approve the date, nor even gotten their wrestlers to apply for Washington wrestling licenses or any of the other work that goes into actually promoting a show.
The letters section this week is all over the place. One guy talks about how fans seem to pay more attention to the moves themselves rather than the context in which they occur and the stories they serve. He talks about a 15-minute headlock Ray McClarity had Verne Gagne in at some point in the 50s and how exciting it was because it was McClarity trying to hold onto his lead in the second fall of the match. Most of it is without major substance, though. There is one letter that is quite lengthy and basically responds to every letter about Bruno Sammartino from the past two months or so, but nothing really interesting in there either.
Just before press time, Dave got word of the tragic deaths of Adrian Adonis, Canadian Wildman David McKigney, and Pat Kelly. On July 4, they had a gruesome van wreck in Newfoundland. They were traveling with fellow wrestler Mike Kelly, who survived, to a match in Lewisporte, Newfoundland, when they crashed their van and went into a brook. Pat Kelly (real name Victor Arko) and David McKigney were declared dead at the site of the crash, while Adonis died in the hospital. Dave gives brief obituaries for Adonis and McKigney. Adonis was only 34 years old and one of the most talented wrestlers anywhere in the early part of the decade. McKigney was a central figure in Jim Freedman’s book Drawing Heat, and was a wrestler and promoter in Northern Ontario who made his name training wrestling bears in the 60s, which led to the death of his wife when one of the bears escaped and mauled them. Dave promises more information next week.
Trump has been in Russia's pocket a long time here is more reading for those interested in the history. Trump was over a billion in debt and the Russians bailed him out. ► Trump was first compromised by the Russians in the 80s. In 1984, the Russian Mafia began to use Trump real estate to launder money. In 1987, the Soviet ambassador to the United Nations, Yuri Dubinin, arranged for Trump and his then-wife, Ivana, to enjoy an all-expense-paid trip to Moscow to consider possible business prospects. Only seven weeks after his trip, Trump ran full-page ads in the Boston Globe, the NYT and WaPO calling for, in effect, the dismantling of the postwar Western foreign policy alliance. The whole Trump/Russian connection started out as laundering money for the Russian mob through Trump's real estate, but evolved into something far bigger. ► In 1984, David Bogatin — a convicted Russian mobster and close ally of Semion Mogilevich, a major Russian mob boss — met with Trump in Trump Tower right after it opened. Bogatin bought five condos from Trump at that meeting. Those condos were later seized by the government, which claimed they were used to launder money for the Russian mob. (NY Times, Apr 30, 1992) ► [Felix Sater](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felix_Sater } is a Russian-born former mobster, and former managing director of NY real estate conglomerate Bayrock Group LLC located on the 24th floor of Trump Tower. He is a convict who became a govt cooperator for the FBI and other agencies. He grew up with Michael Cohen--Trump's former "fixer" attorney. Cohen's family owned El Caribe, which was a mob hangout for the Russian Mafia in Brooklyn. Cohen had ties to Ukrainian oligarchs through his in-laws and his brother's in-laws. Felix Sater's father had ties to the Russian mob. This goes back more than 30 years. ► Trump was $4 billion in debt after his Atlantic City casinos went bankrupt. No U.S. bank would touch him. Then foreign money began flowing in through Bayrock (mentioned above). Bayrock was run by two investors: Tevfik Arif, a Kazakhstan-born former Soviet official who drew on bottomless sources of money from the former Soviet republic; and Felix Sater, a Russian-born businessman who had pleaded guilty in the 1990s to a huge stock-fraud scheme involving the Russian mafia. Bayrock partnered with Trump in 2005 and poured money into the Trump organization under the legal guise of licensing his name and property management. ► In July 2008, the height of the housing bust, Trump sold a mansion in Palm Beach for $95 million to Dmitry Rybolovlev, a Russian oligarch. Trump had purchased it four years earlier for $41.35 million. The sale price was nearly $54 million more than Trump had paid for the property. Again, this was the height of the recession when all other property had plummeted in value. ► Semion Mogilevich was the brains behind the Russian Mafia. Mogilevich operatives have been using Trump real estate for decades to launder money. That means Russian Mafia operatives have been part of his fortune for years. Many of them owned condos in Trump Towers and other properties. They were running operations out of Trump's crown jewel. ► So many Russians bought Trump apartments at his developments in Florida that the area became known as Little Moscow. The developers of two of his hotels were Russians with significant links to the Russian mob. The late leader of that mob in the United States, Vyacheslav Kirillovich Ivankov, was living at Trump Tower ► According to a Bloomberg investigation (3/16/2017) into Trump World Tower, “a third of units sold on floors 76 through 83 by 2004 involved people or limited liability companies connected to Russia and neighboring states.” ► In 2013, Federal agents busted an “ultraexclusive, high-stakes, illegal poker ring” run by Russian gangsters out of Trump Tower. They operated card games, illegal gambling websites, and a global sports book and laundered more than $100 million. A condo directly below one owned by Trump reportedly served as HQ for a “sophisticated money-laundering scheme” connected to Semion Mogilevich. ► The Russia Mafia is part and parcel of Russian intelligence. Russia is a mafia state. That is not a metaphor. Putin is head of the Mafia. So the fact that they have been operating out of the home of the president of the United States is deeply disturbing. ► Rudy Giuliani famously prosecuted the Italian mob while he was a federal prosecutor, yet the Russian mob was allowed to thrive. Now he's deeply entwined in the business of Trump and Russian oligarchs. Giuiani appointed Semyon Kislin to the NYC Economic Development Council in 1990, and the FBI described Kislin as having ties to the Russian mob. Of course, it made good political sense for Giuliani to get headlines for smashing the Italian mob. ► A lot of Republicans in Washington are implicated. Boatloads of Russian money went to the GOP--often in legal ways. The NRA got as much as $70M from Russia, then funneled it to the GOP. The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee lead by McConnell got millions from Leonard Blavatnik. In the 90s, the Russians began sending money to top GOP leaders, like Speaker of the House Tom Delay. Craig Unger's book alleges that most of the GOP leadership has been compromised by RU money. ► At the Cityscape USA’s Bridging US and the Emerging Real Estate Markets Conference held in Manhattan, on September 9, 10, and 11, 2008, Donald Trump Jr. was frank about the tide of Russian money supporting the family business, saying "...And in terms of high-end product influx into the US, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets." ► Eric Trump told golf reporter James Dodson in 2014 that the Trump Organization was able to expand during the financial crisis because “We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.” ► It's believed that Russian oligarchs co-signed Trump’s Deutsche bank loans. ► Alex Navalny has insinuated Paul Manafort passed along Trump's campaign information to the Kremlin via Kilimnik. In a 25-minute Youtube video (Russian with subtitles), Navalny shows footage of Deripaska with Russian deputy prime minister Sergei Prikhodko on his yacht in Norway in August 2016. Based on that footage, he alleges that information about the Trump campaign must have passed between the two. Senate Intelligence Report I believe concluded Paul gave the information to known Russian asset but that we have no proof this asset gave the information to the Kremlin? Im hoping someone in the comments has some more on the Paul Manafort accusation to perhaps clear this bullet up in a future edit. Trump now gleefully takes cues from Putin: ► Trump went against American intelligence on North Korean missiles. He told the FBI he didn't believe their intelligence because Putin told him otherwise. “I don't care, I believe Putin" ► Trump met in secret with Putin at the G20 summit in November 2018, without note takers. 19 days later, he announced a withdrawal from Syria. ► Trump refused to enforce sanctions legally codified into law - and in some cases reversed standing sanctions on Russian companies. ► He has denounced his own intelligence agencies in a press conference with Putin on election meddling - and publicly endorsed Putin's version of events. ► Demanded Russia get invited back into G7 ► Pushed the CIA to give American intelligence to the Kremlin. ► Withdrew from the Open Skies treaty EDIT - First want to say thanks for taking the time to read the post. Please take the time to also VOTE this election. Also thank you various users for the rewards and support. On to actual edits :) Firstly I've removed the link to Trump / Russian bounties allegations. Which was the last point in the post originally due to its lack of factual evidence. Second I've changed a few points wording. Third I've added a new bullet at the end that was passed a long to me yesterday by another user in another thread about Trump and his campaign manager. Fourth I'd like to point out that this post is a collection of points from various other users in other threads and I personally don't want to take any credit for this post as I'm just carrying the torch with this post of several users before me who compiled many of these points.
Lost a couple thousand on an online casino this last week and after logging into my bank account to assess the damage I realized all the charges were disguised through shell corporations and front businesses and I'm wondering if I can chargeback without legal repercussion???
I wont reveal the casino directly but for context it's based in the Caribbean and is owned by some Chinese conglomerate of sorts. It ranks highly online and multiple sources claim it's safe so I didn't question it's legitimacy especially since it's a professional looking site with nice graphics and live dealers and all. It wasn't until I deposited more money than I'd like to admit in increments and finally checked my bank account in despair after losing it all that I realized the payment processing was handled by multiple third party ecommerce businesses and the like. Not only that but a few of the charges were labeled as being sent to individuals directly with common sounding almost stereotypical Chinese names instead of businesses like "Zhou Wei" or "Hui Chang" One charge in particular was labeled as a website address for an Alibaba looking site that sells "mobile signal boosters" and was identified by google as "not secure" and warned me that I shouldn't enter any personal info as it could be compromised. So this leads me to the inevitable question: Would it be safe for me to request chargebacks and claim partial fraud or even complete ignorance and let it play out? (Which would be ideal so i can recoup) Moral judgement and gambling addiction advice aside if it is the case that this casino is disguising itself from banks and using third party fronts in what I'm assuming to be a money laundering operation, would they risk revealing themselves and countering my banks investigation? And yes technically I did in fact authorize the payments to the casino and they have my name, home address, and ip if they do choose to counter but I never agreed to have my card details covertly ran through shell corporations and front businesses especially ones deemed illegitimate by google and not only that but i was charged a 5%-15% hidden fee on every transaction by the third parties. So for example what should of been a flat $500 deposit in exchange for the equivalent in casino credit came out to $547.32 unbeknownst to me and I was charged a foreign transaction fee on top of that. I don't want to get busted for chargeback fraud but if the casino itself is fraudulent (And also operated outside the USA on some small sketchy island nation run by criminals based in china) can I get away with it, moreover would it even be getting away with anything if I'm the victim here at least in part. edit: From Oklahoma USA
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